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Thoughts on declining values...
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March 7, 2021 - 4:26 pm
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There are 2 situations being discussed here.

One is serving your local customers at your store. Nothing wrong with the shop selling items at the going price, whatever that may be, available to your customers. 

The other situation is as the first person stated “I’ve read several examples on other forums of guys who know of gunshops who, when a batch of primers, et al comes in, they don’t put it on the shelves but rather they immediately list it on gunbroker.” Thus bypassing and eliminating service to their local customers.

Nothing wrong with a gunshop charging fair market value. But when that gunshop “immediately list it on gunbroker” ignoring their local customers, they have no right to plead “be loyal” and “buy local”, when prices settle down.

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March 7, 2021 - 4:34 pm
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This has been an interesting and thought-provoking topic.  Someone exclaimed to me recently, “ammo is like gold right now!”  I was thinking about the gold metaphor.  If overnight, gold takes a jump in price, who expects anyone to sell it at yesterday’s price?  Is it not considered profiteering because everyone immediately starts selling it at the same price? 

If gun shops and internet businesses sell ammunition at the same price as scalpers, does the uniformity of prices mean, “profiteering” isn’t at play?  When gold takes a huge jump, those that had a large inventory of it stand to make big profits.  This reminds me of the obviously old primers I see for sale on gunbroker.  Many years ago, some guys happen to buy way more than they needed.  They didn’t think much of it until prices increased ten-fold.  Now they are ridding themselves of their excess – at a very substantial profit.  Should we question their ethics? 

I’m not invested in being right about any of this.  I pose these questions because I enjoy the different perspectives.  

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March 7, 2021 - 5:00 pm
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I can see it both ways, I have sold things on eBay that I wouldn’t pay twenty bucks for…. but if someone finds value in it, that’s fine with me. It goes back to the old adage ‘it’s only worth what someone is willing to pay for it’. People overpay for all sorts of items everyday, if they are ok with how they spend their money- I can’t tell them otherwise.

I would Think it would be more of a concern  if  one company bought up all existing product and then tried to sell it at an inflated price knowing that they are the only option. 

I asked a friend who works at a local outdoor store why the prices are so high. He said that they basically had to raise prices to be able to keep inventory on the shelves in order to be able to have Ammo to offer to customers, as well as to be able to have something for all of the new gun sales they were experiencing. They basically came to the conclusion that, no one would buy a handgun if they couldn’t buy the Ammo to shoot it. I am not saying I agree with it or not, just throwing it out there for another angle.

 

On a final thought if I don’t agree with a particular selling practice,like what’s currently going on, I simply choose not to participate.

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March 7, 2021 - 5:23 pm
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 In my area the two biggest suppliers of ammo and components are a Fleet Farm and a large sport shop. Both sell guns and lots of other things. They do not mark the ammo or components up beyond pre- hoard price. The parking lot is full, people checking the selves for ammo and supplies, there is limits on purchases and a lot of empty selves. Business is good, the people that pop it to look also buy other things. A few days ago I stopped in to buy bullets and the background check line was four deep. When I bought dog food at Fleet Farm the guys at the check out line with ammo also bought other unrelated idems. Big stores do not have a problem, the shortage has been good to them. T/R

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March 7, 2021 - 5:48 pm
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A month or so ago I was buying powder at a local wholesale supply.  The owner told me a lady came in and wanted to buy a pallet of primers.  He didn’t have any primers but he knew what she was up to.  What would one do with 90,000 primers???  My last primer purchase I had to pay 2 times the regular price and I bought all I could get.  I did see some for sale at the gun shop for $150 a box.  Around here that is on the lower end of the scale.

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March 7, 2021 - 8:24 pm
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Back to guns.  Two months in a row I walked around my local antique fair carrying a pretty rare Stevens 414 Armory model.  Had a price sign on it the first time, not a single offer.  Today, a couple hours ago I took it back, this time no signs.  I got two types of dialogs:

1. OLD timers (I’m talking 70 or older) with the standard “wha cha got there, are ya selling it?”  When I said yes, it’s a desirable model, works fine, they’d want me to give a price.  For fun, I’d throw it back to them.  “Make me an offer” (remember I carried it around the month before with a $500 sign and got NO discussions at all).  I got $75, $85, and $100 actual offers, or ones that would shake their heads that they’d been called, not offer anything, and walk off rudely.  Pretty much how it has been for my entire life, people hope to scoop a gun for what they could buy them for 40 years previously.  One guy fiddled with it for 5 minutes trying to break the sear, before finally asking what I wanted.  I said “I’m sure you’ll give me a too low offer like the rest, so unless I’m wrong, let’s not worry about it.”  He didn’t and I could tell he though he’d get it for $100.  Between those real dialogs, I could hear 8 or 10 more people talking behind me when I was discussing it, all whispering “that a Stevens?  What’s he want?!”  All were between 68-90 years old.  Young people?  Zero

2. People that knew what it was and approximate value, and wanted to talk.  I actually have a partially negotiated deal with one guy that I hope to complete, trading for something I want more.  He wants it to rebuild.

Absent was any interest or knowledge from the masses at the show.  Young guys in military t-shirts, gangbangers, young sporty looking women would take a quizzical look at the Stevens, then move on.  The guy selling primers had them gone in 5 minutes, and the guy with the Sig on the table had a LOT of interest.  

What does this mean?  That the demographics are indeed going to fail to keep high values of vintage, classic guns.  Thousands are coming up every year now as people age out, as Steven said.  Few buyers are interested in any but the most cult of the cult items, like 94s or Pythons. The few buyers that are collectors are buying speculators, like the primers and Python buyers.  Hoping to make a quick buck flipping.  They’re not true collectors.  They’re private dealers surfing the internet sites. 

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March 7, 2021 - 8:39 pm
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TR said
 AZshot, I guess we are different types of collectors. I collect antique Winchesters and Colts with history. I buy a small number of guns but at a high price, always more than anyone else is willing to pay, whether it is a auction, gun dealer, or internet. I like rare whether it is condition, feature, or history. The value in the buy for me is knowing something the seller and the other buyers don’t. But sometimes the seller knows something I don’t and the purchase is a mistake. We all including myself make mistakes and they are expensive. I don’t call my guns investments, I call them my hobby. You never graduate from the school of hard knocks. T/R  

I wish you’d quit calling me out and implying how you are better than me.  You aren’t reading my posts very closely.  I said almost word for word what you just did, about me knowing more about an item than most sellers.  

How we are different is I’m very patient.  I don’t use my money to “always pay more than anyone else”.  I instead identify the sleepers, that no one is following – yet.  I buy from the hidden sellers, that I find networking.  I’ve been known to have a dialog with someone for over 10 years, until they finally sell me the item I want. Armchair surfing internet gun sites and being willing to pay top dollar isn’t my game.  Long haul patience is. 

Some of the guns and antiques I have are VERY historic and rare.  Not the average 94 or 86.  But everyone collects those.  I go for things you can’t find comps for on the internet easily – too rare.  Or things that don’t have a cult following.  I’ve found rare Apollo space program items, Presidential items, early American items at antique shows and yard sales that are practically priceless.  I’m selling one item now for $16,000, that I paid $600 10 years ago, and waited for the market to catch up. I love history and have done very well collecting over 45 years. Quit trying to “school” me. 

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March 7, 2021 - 9:54 pm
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AZshot said
Back to guns.  Two months in a row I walked around my local antique fair carrying a pretty rare Stevens 414 Armory model.  Had a price sign on it the first time, not a single offer.  Today, a couple hours ago I took it back, this time no signs.  I got two types of dialogs:

1. OLD timers (I’m talking 70 or older) with the standard “wha cha got there, are ya selling it?”  When I said yes, it’s a desirable model, works fine, they’d want me to give a price.  For fun, I’d throw it back to them.  “Make me an offer” (remember I carried it around the month before with a $500 sign and got NO discussions at all).  I got $75, $85, and $100 actual offers, or ones that would shake their heads that they’d been called, not offer anything, and walk off rudely.  Pretty much how it has been for my entire life, people hope to scoop a gun for what they could buy them for 40 years previously.  One guy fiddled with it for 5 minutes trying to break the sear, before finally asking what I wanted.  I said “I’m sure you’ll give me a too low offer like the rest, so unless I’m wrong, let’s not worry about it.”  He didn’t and I could tell he though he’d get it for $100.  Between those real dialogs, I could hear 8 or 10 more people talking behind me when I was discussing it, all whispering “that a Stevens?  What’s he want?!”  All were between 68-90 years old.  Young people?  Zero

2. People that knew what it was and approximate value, and wanted to talk.  I actually have a partially negotiated deal with one guy that I hope to complete, trading for something I want more.  He wants it to rebuild.

Absent was any interest or knowledge from the masses at the show.  Young guys in military t-shirts, gangbangers, young sporty looking women would take a quizzical look at the Stevens, then move on.  The guy selling primers had them gone in 5 minutes, and the guy with the Sig on the table had a LOT of interest.  

What does this mean?  That the demographics are indeed going to fail to keep high values of vintage, classic guns.  Thousands are coming up every year now as people age out, as Steven said.  Few buyers are interested in any but the most cult of the cult items, like 94s or Pythons. The few buyers that are collectors are buying speculators, like the primers and Python buyers.  Hoping to make a quick buck flipping.  They’re not true collectors.  They’re private dealers surfing the internet sites.   

Think you’re drawing unjustified conclusions from your “antique fair” experience–at such a venue, it’s hardly surprising that your 414 attracted little interest; even at a good gun show, this is not one of the popular Stevens models that would be turning heads, like a Favorite or Walnut Hill.  I am (or was) a Stevens collector, yet this is not a model I’ve ever had any particular interest it; I might buy one at a bargain basement price, but not otherwise. 

As for stupid low ball offers, I guarantee you’d get those at any good show, unless by chance you bumped into someone who came looking for whatever you had.  When I was bringing a gun into a show for some reason, I always made a point of keeping it in a case just so I wouldn’t be pestered by such tire kickers, who wouldn’t pay 10 cents on the dollar of whatever its true value was.

Except for the high-prestige shows like Baltimore, Denver, Vegas, a few others, most gunshows went to the dogs over 10 yrs ago, because most of the best stuff was going directly to the big auction houses, & the lesser quality stuff to on-line sites like GB.  That’s why I stopped driving long distances to see the same over-priced guns dealers brought to show after show, because they had nothing else to sell.

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March 7, 2021 - 10:06 pm
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As to what Bert said I agree with him that its Capitalism were a person should be able to get the most out of a item they own. Its supply and demand. What I would call Profiteering is the Juice that the auction companies charge to do the transaction. I look at the housing market where a house sells in less than a day and sometimes they get multiple offers and it turns into a bidding war for a house. I don’t think anyone would turn down a $20,000 offer beyond your listed price just on principle. It Capitalism. Sometime in the future it might go the other way and you will be forced to accept lower offers, that to is Capitalism.

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March 8, 2021 - 5:38 pm
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Sometimes people go to the wrong gun shows and comment on the wrong websites. Not rare at all.

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March 10, 2021 - 12:01 am
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Hello,

This thread is all about what we “think” the correct value of a firearms really is.  I assume that we would all agree that it is loosely defined as what someone is willing to pay for something.  But, there has been a lot of time spent at the keyboards as a result of this thread trying to qualify the knowledge, intent, and correctness of sellers and buyers as defined by whether they are at a gun show, the guy down the street, at a large auction house, or on some website auction.  

I see LOTS of Winchesters purchased at large auction houses (RIA, Poulin, Carrol Watson, Morphy, etc) based on a few questionable quality images.  Those same guns then turn up at various dealers (Merz, Groves, Collector Firearms, etc) with 30 to 60% markups in the prices being asked.  Some sell and some do not for a long time.  One benefit in these secondary sales is that there are typically a few more, better quality images to observe and maybe make a better decision on to judge if that new price is more in line with what you are willing to pay.  So, in this instance the “perceived value” is a function of how much risk a buyer might be willing to take.  

I also see A LOT of these same sort of rifles put on GB with a starting bid of $.01!!  Somebody bought a rifle for $1500 and then starts the bidding at a penny???!!!  They must be nuts!  But, again there might be 70 images in the add to judge the quality of the gun by.  Most of us would gladly pay more for a rifle if we have more information to judge it by.  That only makes sense.  The person taking the risk on GB is only there providing US that opportunity to have more confidence and HE is taking all the risk.   

This brings up a point as to what the “value” of the gun should be.  (Sorry Bert)  The Red Book makes an attempt to clarify this.  But, think of the difficulty of correctly grading the condition of a gun based on 2 photos from RIA etc.  It could be +/- 15% easily from when compared to some of the later images of the same gun being offered by someone who actually knows how to use a camera and good lighting.  So that “value” may be on a rifle that is 60% condition or some place between 45% and 75%.  The first auction (RIA for example) sets one value number based on the people in the audience and those bidding on line and paying another 20% in commissions.  Then the gun gets listed at a dealer (see above) for marked up prices and eventually sell.  That is another value for the same rifle that is not put into the Red Book mix.  Does that mean the 2nd buyer was an idiot?  The dealers have to make a living too.  Right?  Or the gun gets listed on Gunbroker and sells for a much higher price than was sold at the original auction.  Is that “value price” a bastard child because it wasn’t sold in the “right place”?  Even though it was substantiated by many more good photos and it was presented to orders of magnitude more people and had a return policy????  

There appears to be a lot of complaining about the fact that some people are willing to pay more than you might want to for something.  So what!  Just sell your guns to the guy down the street and you will feel so much happier that you missed out on possible making thousand of dollars more by doing it another way.  I am sure you will sleep better at night.

Somewhat tongue in cheek.  But not all of it.

Michael

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March 10, 2021 - 12:43 am
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twobit said
I also see A LOT of these same sort of rifles put on GB with a starting bid of $.01!!  Somebody bought a rifle for $1500 and then starts the bidding at a penny???!!!  They must be nuts!   The person taking the risk on GB is only there providing US that opportunity to have more confidence and HE is taking all the risk.   

 The dealers have to make a living too.  Right?

NO risk at all if a shill bidder is on hand to guarantee the bidding reaches the seller’s minimum price.

Dealers have to make a living?  Not the amateurs with no shop lease to pay or other overhead!  Many if not most of them on GB buy & sell as their HOBBY.  Otherwise, how could they afford to have their capital tied up in sucker-priced guns that stay listed at the same price for months turning into years?  They’re just like the guys who bring the same guns to the same shows year after year–it gives them something to do.  And if the right sucker comes along & pays their price…O what a thrill!  Something to brag about to their gun-show buddies for months to come, AS I HAVE HEARD WITH MY OWN EARS. 

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March 10, 2021 - 1:17 pm
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I’ll agree that today’s internet sellers are more “flippers”, i.e. speculators, than “gun dealers” of the past.  Same with baseball cards or antiques of any sort, people with means or fortitude can buy things they know a little bit more than the seller, then sell it for higher by simply giving more details.  I once proved it to myself, but getting into a certain class of antiques.  I bought one for $30, sold it for $50.  Bought two more, sold slighty higher.  Over time I learned what types sold better, bought some of those, and so on, until I was commonly buying one for $300 on ebay, then selling it that SAME WEEK on a hobby forum for $700!  Sometimes I would buy for under 5 bills and sell for $2000! I did that for 10 years and it paid for 2 trips to Europe and an RV!  But the market closed, people all learned what these antiques were.  They became like guns: a very known value, almost like the Spot Gold price that is listed daily. 

But we’re not talking about how flipping works or even high prices.  We’re talking about the general value trend in vintage guns. On average (not onesy-twosies) they are trending downward or just keeping up with inflation. 

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March 10, 2021 - 3:16 pm
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AZshot said
But the market closed, people all learned what these antiques were.  They became like guns: a very known value, almost like the Spot Gold price that is listed daily. 

  

I haven’t!  What, in my ignorance, have I been passing up?

There’s also such a thing as knowing TOO much, when you’re bidding against others who know too little–that is, don’t recognize misleading descriptions, defects, other problems; in that situation, you can’t compete, unless you’re willing to overpay.  Most extreme case of this I know of occurred several yrs ago on ebay when one of the cheap “No. 5” Winchester scopes was listed as an A5.  I notified seller who told me scope had been positively identified by a “Winchester expert” she knew.  Sold for close to a grand!  I expected to see it relisted later when the fraud was discovered, but I guess the idiot who bought it was happy with his purchase.

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March 10, 2021 - 4:11 pm
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clarence said

AZshot said
But the market closed, people all learned what these antiques were.  They became like guns: a very known value, almost like the Spot Gold price that is listed daily. 
  

I haven’t!  What, in my ignorance, have I been passing up?

There’s also such a thing as knowing TOO much, when you’re bidding against others who know too little–that is, don’t recognize misleading descriptions, defects, other problems; in that situation, you can’t compete, unless you’re willing to overpay.  Most extreme case of this I know of occurred several yrs ago on ebay when one of the cheap “No. 5” Winchester scopes was listed as an A5.  I notified seller who told me scope had been positively identified by a “Winchester expert” she knew.  Sold for close to a grand!  I expected to see it relisted later when the fraud was discovered, but I guess the idiot who bought it was happy with his purchase.  

Clarence – I was going to say that possibly the purchaser of the scope was happy with it – until it came time to sell it.  But who know, maybe he just sold it to another low knowledge person.  Good chance of that happening.  For every knowledgeable person, I see a line of others who are short in that regard.

Also, I agree with you about the disadvantage of bidding against low-knowledge people.  Most the time, those that are strong on knowledge do best in situations where bidding is not occurring.  Ideally, they are not competing with others at all.  I’m reminded of the, “early birds” that show up at garage sales.  Lots of guys rent gunshow tables mainly so they can be there during set-up and cruise through quickly.  Often the, “deals” that are found is a function of the buyer knowing more about that item than the seller.  

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March 10, 2021 - 9:44 pm
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As others have stated, lots of old timers are kicking the bucket and their life long collections are now flooding the market. I have been involved with contemporary and antique KY rifles since 1980. At the moment several LARGE collections are being dispersed at the same time. It’s a good time to find some great guns at 50% off or less. Contemporary stuff over about 12K isn’t moving at all.

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March 10, 2021 - 11:59 pm
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I think most of us try to keep a, “handle” on the pulse of what is going on in our hobby area here.  Easier said than done.  There’s lot of anomalies that come along and it is tempting to read meaning into various examples.  I’ve seen many sales on gunbroker that have really surprised me in recent times.  Sometimes, when someone asks me what their firearm is worth, I have to respond, “it depends” and then go on to explain that what they might get on gunbroker vs. bringing it into a gunshow or other venue might bring dramatically different values.  

So, when a rifle brings a crazy price on gunbroker, does that mean it wasn’t worth it?  Well… it was worth that on gunbroker… and currency obtained through gunbroker is worth the same as any other currency.  But, we also know there’s a lot of monkey business and other variables that goes on.  A lot of the hammer prices seen on gunbroker are a result of shill bidding, people losing their minds from ego and the competition factor, and so on.  

I am someone who is always trying to understand things and figure out what I am seeing.  Our hobby area provides all the challenges I need on that front.  

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March 11, 2021 - 3:32 am
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I’ve given some serious thought to selling my more modern guns for the crazy money they’re bringing now (I don’t shoot them) and taking advantage of what may be a buyers’ market in the collectible Winchesters. I may have to rent a table at a normal gun show to do it but now is probably the best time. May even scare up a few boxes of 30-30’s to keep it interesting. I’m just not sure I can spend a weekend surrounded by jerky and t-shirt sellers. 

 

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March 11, 2021 - 4:41 am
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TXGunNut said
I’ve given some serious thought to selling my more modern guns for the crazy money they’re bringing now (I don’t shoot them) and taking advantage of what may be a buyers’ market in the collectible Winchesters.

If you’re not shooting them, might as well…before the bubble bursts.  Still waiting for that “buyer’s market” to show its face among the things I’m interested in, such as 52s & US military.

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March 11, 2021 - 11:57 am
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The collections and the availability of Winchesters is limited in Canada. There are a few large collectors I’ve noticed listing their guns for sale since Covid, Not sure if that has anything to do with it but nice to see some fresh vintage guns for sale that haven’t been previously listed or circulated for a long time.

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