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The picture continues to become clearer to me. As many have mentioned, a large factor continues to be the change in demographics. I don’t see that trend turning around. Collectors continue to depart the scene through death, nursing home admissions or not wanting their heirs to be left with the task of selling a bunch of old guns. At the other end, as I see it, very few young collectors are entering our field. This explains why so many of the lower value or, “vanilla” pieces are seeing poor interest. These are what had been, “entry level” pieces. With so few entry level collectors, who’s going to buy them?
With the huge volume of vintage (“collectable”) rifles, shotguns, handguns out there, it will surely become an ever-increasing buyer’s market. This is a significant shift in my lifetime. With regard to collectable firearms, decades ago a friend told me, “you can never pay too much for a gun – you just might buy it too early.” I observed that to be true for all of my life, except for recent years. I feel it is safe to say that what had been true, is no longer true. Witnessing this feels like a shockwave shift for me.
On the topic of adding the buyer’s premium to hammer prices, I’ve often been puzzled how that seems to work out for the dealers/speculators that purchase at auctions. Already, by being the winning bidder, they are paying more than anyone else is willing to pay. Adding the buyer’s premium is a formidable amount of money. I suppose it goes back to what I suggested used to be true. Most of us have lived in a market that has been on the upturn for most of our lives. Many dealer/speculators sit on items for a long time (e.g. look at how long items remain in the Merz catalog). Eventually, the value would escalate to the point they could sell for a profit. I speculate some of the recent lower prices we are seeing is reflective of less speculation buying from dealers. Most of what is purchased today, will be worth less next year, even less the following year, etc. I believe that is the most logical prediction. Are others here as pessimistic?
I think the positive strategy is to collect for the sake of collecting and collect what you like. Vintage firearms may no longer be a good investment. But, just about everything else I spend money on isn’t a good (financial) investment either. Recreational vehicles, boats, electronic gadgets, you name it – these are things we buy to enjoy and we don’t mourn the fact that they lose value while we enjoy them. If you view your purchases as, “investments” that can mean you are buying them not for yourself, but for the next owner.
I agree with everything you said. However, I come at it from a little different angle. I never, never (did I say “never”?) buy a gun as an investment. I always buy for aesthetics. And, while I can appreciate the beauty of a fine collector, engraved, case color, etc. I really like the old and dark, metal and wood. And I don’t want them in a safe. I want them laying around as I wish I had found them: in a corner, dusty, half hidden. A few on the wall here and there, over the fire place or door.
As to selling off before death, I would not be inclined to do that to save my heirs the *hassle*. Rather, I would be inclined to do that to save them some money. I don’t want them to take them to the pawn shop and get screwed. But then again, I’m lazy and there just may be a lucky pawn shop in the future. 
Finally, I don’t get auctions. Never did. It should be what you bid is what you pay (if you win). Let the seller and the auctioneer work it out. That there is the fair market value. Minimums and reserves should be disclosed in advance. But hey, for those who want to learn and navigate the system, more power to them.
Now, I wait patiently for all these cheap relics and brown guns I’m hearing about to come on the scene. I’m a skin flint. And I’m only 60 so I’m probably on the tail end of the demographic.
Huck –
Thank you for your thoughts. Aside from the tremendous knowledge to be found on this forum, I really enjoy the different, “takes.” Your specific take is a great example.
My own take is influenced by how I came to be interested in this hobby at a very young age. I do not come from a family of collectors, but rather a family of hunters. So as a young boy observing all the different rifles used by various family members, the point of the rifles was how well they served the hunting needs of the owner, not any sort of collector aesthetic. The first deer rifle my Dad had (i.e. the first deer rifle he purchased) was a M1886 in .33WCF. It was a half magazine, shotgun butt variation with a tang peep. He never would have chosen an octagon barreled, full magazine ’86 for hunting. He also believed the .33 WCF was the best choice of all the ’86 cartridges for deer hunting. It is likely for this reason, I love the extralightweight versions of the ’86. The closer a rifle handles like a wand in my hand, the better I like it. But the preceding is just one aspect of me. I also have come to love extra heavy barrels, special order long barrels (and special order short barrels). I like rifles with character, I like high conditioned rifles… as one exasperated friend commented to me once, “you like everything!” That’s pretty close to the truth. It’s not 100% true however. For example I don’t like reblued metal, I don’t like sanded wood, I don’t like extra holes, I don’t like rings in bores or badly pitted bores… you get the picture.
As far as the future, I’m pleased to hear you are 60. You should have a good quarter century of continued collecting remaining in you. As I ponder the future of Winchesters, I think we won’t see a steady decline – at least it will be a while before that happens. I say that because I think as prices drop a bit, guys like us will be buying more as we encounter items at prices we haven’t seen in a while. We simply won’t be able to pass up lower prices.
Other’s thoughts?
I am on the opposite end of the demographic. I haven’t quite hit 40 yet. I started collecting colts bavk in my late 20s, then added some nice parkers, and now have inherited my way into some winchesters. I have encountered this thread on all 3 forums for those guns I collect, and I am still waiting for that cheap Helfrich engraved SAA, cheap parker BHE, and cheap early production M1911 to walk through the door. I have been reading for almost 15 years that the boomers are dying and the gen xers who didn’t grow up with cowboy tv shows don’t want SAAs….Guess what as slow as Colt builds them these days they are still selling plenty and the price hasn’t come down. The market is soft for guns now, just a few years ago it was nuts. The collectors will be there.
For the most part young people don’t collect. Many, of any generation, haven’t developed the love for history and haven’t started appreciating things with age. I am different as I was raised on a steady diet of history and archeology digs and sites. Plus, until you get your house paid for, your student debt settled, and your kids at least halfway grown disposable income van be hard to find. As my fellow gen xers start aging up, we will collect guns just fine.
Im thinking its not so much younger guys not collecting, its more they are priced out of collecting. What does a functioning pre 64 30-30 cost and finding one priced realistically vs ordering a PSA $299 ar15 kit and a $69 dollar lower?
I hear this about 60’s early 70’s muscle cars. Kids want to own a 70 chevelle but most kids in thier 20s dont have the money to the skill to own and keep a 50 year old car on the road. I lucked into a 66 and 70 c hevelles. If I didn’t have them, I couldn’t justify buying one in today’s market. Jim
Man I’m 34, I’ve got a box full of what most here would consider junk. I dont buy online, I dont go the auctions. I buy at shows and wors of mouth. Any time I encounter a 94 or 92 Theres people all arou d and I’ve got to pay up for it. I cant speak on the super high end and the 86’s 73’s etc. I buy what I can afford and what’s available. Believe it or not my Mother had thos conversation with my father and I this morning. She does high end estate sales. Her views on guns I general is the same as most here. Condition! Nice stuff sells and sells fast. I’ve been waiting for the beat up 92s to become sort cheap. Havent seen it yet. A well used and abused 92 rifle at the local show is still being offered at 1k plus. I buy what I like, I hope they go up I value, I expect them too, but I’m not buying 150k+ plus rifles right now my children’s legacy will not be Winchesters or Colts or LC Smith’s.
There may come a day when these things are not wanted or desired but it’s still a ways out. The demand may not be what it once was, but yet there is still a demand.
I’ve been collecting, and recently selling, collectables for over 50 years now. I’ve witnessed first hand the declining interest in certain guns over the years, but on the other hand I’ve also seen the increased interest in other firearms that at one time had no collectability whatsoever. I purchased My first Winchester in 1967 (a Mod. ’94, 30w.c.f. with a 30″ bbl.) for $60.00. It was the coolest deer gun around here and My brothers always wanted to borrow it to go deer hunting ’cause it had range and accuracy like nothin’ else, I never was much of a hunter, I just liked the gun. Now at that time You couldn’t buy a decent Kentucky rifle or a good Snider Enfield reasonable all the “collectors” were driving up the prices on those guns, the same happened later with The ’66,s , ’73,s , ’85,s, etc. N ow You can buy the nicest Kentucky out there for less than it cost in 1967. What I’m getting at at is interests change, it isn’t long ago One could buy a nice AR-15 for a couple hundred bucks, good luck with that today. I bought collectable guns all My life, until about 7 years ago I had about 1,450 Mostly Winchesters and Colts. I started selling them off and I.ve got to say it has been the best lifetime investment I’ve made, I’m still dabbling with them. I still enjoy the hunt and the purchase of a “new” piece. Most of all over the years I’ve enjoyed the fine people I’ve met in the hobby, and the places it’s taken Me to. I just couldn’t imagine getting up in the morning, looking at My bank book and saying to Myself isn’t that a beautiful piece of work.
W.A.C.A. life member, Marlin Collectors Assn. charter and life member, C,S.S.A. member and general gun nut.
As a member of the younger generation (turning 31 next month), I can relay a bit of what I’ve heard and seen with my friends and others in my generation along with some of my personal experience.
Here is the main two issues preventing many of us from buying collectible firearms: many members of my generation are still laden with student loans from college, and many aren’t finding high paying jobs right out of college or often for years after. This is preventing us from buying homes, nicer cars, and even having children let alone buying collectible firearms. Plus the cost of many things has been going up faster than wages for a long time now. We tend to spend what little disposable income more on things we can do with our friends and family than in accumulating more stuff, so if we are buying guns, it tends to be guns that we can afford to go shoot with our friends and have some fun with. I have little interest in modern semi-automatics, but that is what many of my peers love. I have gotten a few into older guns, especially those that can be had inexpensively, by letting them try out those that I have and teaching them about them. I don’t know anyone my age personally that buys guns just to look at them and collect them. That doesn’t mean when we are older and have more income we won’t be interested in buying the same guns we wanted but couldn’t afford when we were younger. Many people buy the things they really wanted but couldn’t afford when they were younger once their kids are grown up and out of the house. That is certainly true for my parents and in-laws.
Another thing no doubt affecting interest is the fact that when many of the members here were growing up, westerns and other “action” movies had a lot of lever actions, revolvers, etc. My generation has grown up in the era after semi-automatic pistols and rifles became much more popular both with those who use guns for a living and hunting as well as in television, movies, and video games. That gets young people interested more in those than older guns, plus you can get those pretty cheap.
Here is my piece of unsolicited advice: if you want to get young people interested in these firearms, you have to help them get started. Chat with young people at the gun shows and encourage them to check out your guns rather than chasing them off like many dealers. If you can afford to, let a few guns go to the next generation for lower prices. The biggest thing you can probably do is introduce the young people you know to shooting older guns. If you have some inexpensive pieces you can let go, give some to your kids or grandkids. I certainly got a lot more interested in buying more Winchesters after cleaning up an old Ted Williams Model 100 that used to belong to my wive’s grandfather.
*All opinions expressed are mine and are not meant to represent any other entity unless otherwise expressly stated.*
Seth, and others,
Seth’s letter/missive rings with me. I started collecting in 1973, soon after entering active duty as a 2d Lieutenant. I had grown up with the western movies and TV programs, and a model 1873 (serial 83848 if anyone ever runs across it) caught my eye. Not a high condition rifle, and it cost a whopping $200. That was a LOT for a new LT to pay out! At that time, what I could afford were entry level, low condition rifles, but eventually I had one of each of the major lever action models. All have since been traded in or sold to upgrade condition as I could afford better samples. Wish I had kept the first one, though, so to be able to say “This one started it all!”. I also kept thinking that my next time in service increase in pay, or next promotion, I could more readily afford a better Winchester. Problem was, they went up in value quicker than my salary. I have only once purchased a Winchester with other than my disposable “play” money. That one took months of scrimping after to make it up in our household budget.
The QUALITY of my collection only increased late in my career and subsequent to retirement, and once my son was out on his own. It was a waiting game for me and likelly many other young folks. Even now, I refuse to put the huge amounts into individual pieces that are extremely rare and extremely high condition. And I do enjoy discussing them with young people. I guess at heart I remain a teacher and do enjoy trying to educate and further the interests of the young. Hope others do the same. By the way, I suspect I have few if any “investment” grade rifles in my collection.
Tim Tomlinson
The big problem with younger generations collecting Winchesters, or anything, for that matter, was addressed well by Seth in post #8, above.
IF this younger generation can even keep an open mind and make it past all their teachers and professors who are often pro socialism/communism and anti firearm (and often proudly & vocally so!), they are often not in a position to do so. To do so requires stability and increased wages along with less demand on income.
It’s hard to have stability if one lacks a home that one owns. It’s hard to have stability if one does not have a job with benefits, a starting wage that reflects one’s educational level, and a steady increase in wages. It’s hard to have a significant amount of disposable income if one has a large student loan balance. Along with other obligations.
I am fully aware that one should be responsible for one’s actions, but I blame the pure GREED of the higher education system “preying” on the naivety of the just under twenty age set. These liberal anti gun teachers drill in your head that you need a college degree or else you won’t amount to anything. You are told it’s worth the cost no matter what it costs. You are 17 or 18 years old and you have no concept of what anything costs in life or even what reasonable wages are. You think that you will get a high wage because you are a graduate of an expensive college. You are not unique, employers don’t care, and all they care about is how cheaply they can hire you with fewer and fewer benefits. You don’t realize what a burden you have until it’s too late. Because of this, you struggle to survive. When you can’t even afford a house and are working “gigs” just to survive, an expensive Winchester is not a priority.
It used to be college cost what the individual could afford, the expensive ones were what wealthy families could afford (is the college admissions scandal any surprise?). If you can’t afford it you didn’t go! Now, anyone can go anywhere they like, and take out loans for virtually any amount, after draining one’s parents, grandparents, and Uncle Jack 3 states away whom no one has even heard from in a decade.
In a way, you old timers created this problem. Not “you”, specifically, but you, collectively. Just like with increased retirement ages and reduced benefits, but for future generations, the attitude was “I got mine, you’re on your own”. Now, the chickens come home to roost.
Something to think about.
Hmm…..I have a BS and an MS and graduated college from a tier 1 University. I had no debt and I got a job right out of grad school making 40k a year, and now make significantly more in agriculture. My wife stays home with the kids and we have never suffered for making money. We aren’t wealthy and don’t go on fancy vacations several times a year like some our age, but we don’t need that either. We have a house, both our cars are paid off ASAP with as little debt as possible. We invest in a roth for both her and I each month as well as my retirement plan through work. I don’t have a fancy job or high salary by any means. People just have to be realistic about A) their degree and B) realistic about their lifestyle. If you go on fancy vacations, have fancy bachelor/bachelorette weekends in vegas, try to buy the equivalent of your parent’s lifestyle ie home and cars and hobbies when you are 25, you aren’t going to have money for other things. My brother-in-law is a prime example, he has a good career and is getting himself started and setup. He complains about the cost of classic collectable guns, meanwhile him and my sister-in-law in the past 9 months have picked up mountain biking, golf, archery, and skiing as hobbies. They also bought a 300k home and rather then hunt on his dad’s deer and dove lease as a guest he has a fancy lease in the hill country……It’s priorities.
Some people go off to college and major in stupid things and then complain about not getting a job….Sorry there have never been a plethora of high paying jobs for people with BA degrees….Its not realistic. Also, some parents need to pull their heads out of their asses about paying for college. If they are going to insist on kid going to college they should dang well be willing to help pauy for it rather then getting buried under debt. I help a lot of kids from my rural area with college, scholarship, and aid applications. The kids that go to public universities do pretty good on the limited debt thing. The kids that go to a fancy small private school and put 80% of it on student loabs of some kind not so much. That isn’t the schools fault, that is mom and dad’s fault for not being realistic with their kids. It’s personal responsibility.
Also, I had about 8 years as undergrad and grad school. I never once had a professor espouse liberal views about anything, much less gun control. I also never had a prodessor tell me god doesn’t exist or any of that. This is with a very science intensive undergrad. Heck, the closest I had to anything like thay was my military history (minored in military history) professor lecture us about not speeding or drinking and driving after an accident on campus. Heck, I saw many of my professors at church on sunday mornings. The liberal evils of higher education and public schools is overblown. BTW, ever school district in my county has teachers who carry.
Rant over I guess- Back on topic….to a degree the prices are just getting ridiculous. In all the gun shows I have been to here in the lonestar state last 3 or 4 years, I haven’t seen a shootable 1886 for less than 3500 unless it was a late model 33, then it miggt be 2500. Cheapest 73 I have encounter was a round barrel 38-40 for 1600. Colts? You can’t buy a clean 1st gen SAA that is correct for less than 2500 or so. Thats with no finish. You can find them dor around 1600 if they have been rebarreled to 357…but then the gun likely isn’t even safe to shoot. I saw one .45 colt for 1900 but it was pitted heavily. Pythons? Forget finding anything respectable for less then 1800-2000. Parkers? A nice trojan is going to be over a grand. A DH with nice engraving? 3-4k with damascus barrels even more for fluid steel.
These are all guns that 50 years ago you could pick up for less than 5-600 bucks, considerably less in some cases. I have bought some, but most of my classic guns I have been fortunate to inherit.
I’ll shut up now.
November 7, 2015
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Shut up? You made my day, KC! I love hearing from members of the younger generations who share traditional values. But just as recent graduates shouldn’t expect to live at their parents’ standard of living a new collector is best served buying the guns they can afford so they can learn about them, shoot them and possibly tinker with them a bit. A good 94 is little more than a car payment these days and will be around long after you and your car are gone. Winchester .22’s and shotguns are often quite affordable and are generally not expensive to shoot. You don’t need a safe full of Deluxe 1886’s to have fun in this game.
Mike
First, parents can insist on college for the betterment of their children but they should by no means be responsible for it. The parents should perhaps be realistic about the cost of the degree and affordable options, and what salary might be when one graduates. The expectation that the parents and just about every other relative pay for a degree is why college costs so much and why we have the problem we have today. Then again, my parents sort of told me what I might expect for post graduation salary and I thought they were from Mars. The difference between then and now is that you really could not borrow more than you could afford. Now the sky’s the limit.
I will admit that I never had a huge diatribe by a teacher or professor that was anti gun. But you knew they were, mostly, and it was a line you didn’t cross. Have guns at home? Keep your mouth shut.
I began collecting Colts and Winchesters in my teens and 20’s. As you stated, it’s a matter of priorities. I can have virtually anything I want, but I can’t have everything I want. If you go out in public, a lot of the younger generation spends a lot of money on tattoos and piercings. Expensive trips and weddings seem to be a priority.
If you buckle down, get your priorities straight, and live frugally and not become enthralled by fake lives portrayed on television, and realize that it won’t happen overnight and older folks once had very little when young, you can collect a collector grade Colt or Winchester every year or two.
It’s all a matter of priorities! Like I said, I collected before college, in college, after college with student loans. I realized what my goals and priorities were. When I got married, it was low key, only a few guests, other than the ring, it cost well under a thousand dollars. My wife’s sister, nearly a generation younger than I, had to have pushed mid 5 figures or more last year…
An unhappy Post here. Whether you agree or not, kindly respect an opinion offered as objective rather than “harmonious” with gun collector perspective. Beginning with bit of personal background. 78 years old, Life Member of NRA since 1958, Benefactor Member for many years. I do support gun rights for legitimate, lawful owners. I believe our destiny/survival opportunities not good.
***
True that gun values decreasing overall. Proportionately collector-gun values. Many sources! From fear mongering news media, to legislators playing to public perceived tunes, to ironically, the gun industry itself. The latter, more coincidentally, yet same effect. Hyping the very guns in the very terms seeking sales as collaterally, inspiring/building/confirming public fears. Not to condemn per se, but to note a tune playing into hands of hysteria prone anti-gun proponents.
Western Culture, rather universal support of ‘media’ whilst often complaining about discriminatory, single sided coverage. Symptomatic of our world! Media interest in selling copy, exploiting tragedy of all sorts, looking to cast blame; gun owners among wider category victims. Fact of life. This not to change.
Next aspect fundamentally working against gun collectors and wider, disdaining artifacts of history generally. Fundamental societal/culture change. The “disposable economy”, reflecting exactly “utilitarian culture”. Neither use nor respect for such “artifacts” of past times/culture/world.
Perhaps mobile phones most exemplary of ‘new world’ and such precepts international in scope. Three year cycle reported as average phone-purchaser usage life. “New & improved”, for some purposes realistic, others more hollow hype. Whatever; selling! This merely symptomatic of wider image of a society refocused. Possession and worth related to immediate tech usage. Old tech disposed of. No looking back! No nostalgia. Just not part of forward focused culture. Not to be viewed as “good or bad”. Only to be recognized as “different”. Fundamentally different than collector orientation reflecting dramatically differing perspective. “Objects” worthy of hallowed recognition of personal and societal collective pasts. Objects as art! Aftermarket effect of residual “used tech merchandise” almost none. Counter to basic “tech-worthy” functional concepts. “used tech” consumer markets, quite limited in proportion and all based on remnants of practical use. “No collectors needed” in mainstream nouveau culture. Rather us “collectors”; as dinosaur species within this new culture. No meteor required! Just tech induced new cultural precepts. Whether ‘old’ objects, old programs, etc., counter-culture. Us as preservers of material history disdained. Superfluous; incidental “fallout”; wider culture without interest/concern/support.
Myself with three gift of God sons, mid-forties to mid-teens. Similar in “new culture” computer/phones/related electronic buffs. No interest in guns or much else tangible beyond category of instant utility. Sad irony, likely better off for such preference. That in a world vilifying gun owners and ever more heavy restrictions on use, possession; fundamentally most aspects of ownership. Such a new world. Moreover, highly unlikely to change. Not subject to such logic as statistics, to realities as stigmatizing objects for bad behavior of tiny minority actors. No. Better my own kin and their modern ilk, not so burdened with interests coincidental to ever increasing, often illogical, restrictions. Criminalization!
We collectors will not change the nouveau culture. The younger of us will be changed in their lifetimes. Elders, as myself, likely going quietly into the night. Not a matter of prying from my cold dead hands. Rather maximizing remnants of my happy culture as necessarily meeting reality. Responsible collection disposal for benefit of estate; for beneficiaries I love. My best father/husband legacy not to rail against fate, but to maximize time/realities.
A sad, reality based…
My take
I have very much enjoyed and appreciated all of the thoughtful comments. It is more of a wide-ranging topic than I anticipated.
An addition I will make is the decrease in hunting. We see many states where hunting license sales have steadily dropped – for some time now. This means less young people are being exposed to not only hunting, but the outdoors. Life has become more cerebral with faces buried in electronics. Particularly so for young people. This has quite the negative impact on a new crop of collectors.
Electronics are a good example of how, “old” is out. Newer is always viewed as better and items that were fairly expensive are discarded in briefer and briefer periods of time. It also seems this is true of people. “Old” people can be viewed as obsolete, irrelevant and having little to offer. I will concede that when one of my grandchildren is struggling with some aspect of their electronics, I surely do not, have anything to offer (oh, I do know enough now to suggest turning it off and on).
For the vast majority of human history, the oldest people knew the most. They were the ones sought out for knowledge, wisdom, guidance, etc. Wow, that has sure changed. It fits the pattern that (most) young people don’t want to emulate what old people do – i.e. collect old things.
And for the young people here, I am thrilled to see you here. KC – before this thread – I had assumed you were at least in your 70’s!
There is probably some regionality to it, but ya’ll are dealing with a different set of kids than I am. Sure they like electronics, but they also love to go hunting, fishing, working cattle, riding horses etc. Heck I have a 10 year old 4-Her that has killed a turkey every year since she was 6.
I think we set a new record for hunting licenses in Texas again last year.
Can’t remember who said it in the above comments but – priorities ! I had a great friend of mine tell me that about 25 years ago and he has been 100% correct( in my opinion) I guy could do most anything he wants within reason as long as he doesn’t want everything.Just his advice has given me a ton of memories that are simply not replaceable
I like being able to have a gun strike my fancy- learn as much as I can about it, decide what I would feel comfortable paying for one,then find the best example I can find.To me it’s an incredible way to learn history. Also by not buying total junk I never seem to have any trouble selling something if the chance to upgrade comes along. I also believe that as a younger(45) collector as you spend 500, then 1000, then 1500-2000(ok you get the point) there gets to be a pucker factor every time you increase your budget, but it does get a little easier when you do your homework and realize are buying something authentic. Could I sell a few things and buy a 5/6000 piece? I suppose, but in my eyes, unless that gun means something to me it’s not why I do this.Values for everything seem to go up and down. I just sold a bike from my childhood that was in my parents garage attic and got 900 bucks for it(it is now actually an 1885 high wall)as far as I am concerned that person paid way to much, but that’s what they wanted to pay so how can I argue- same with guns it’s not the older guys fault if they were able to sell a firearm for a large sum of money- and if someone thinks something is overpriced don’t pay that for it! I think it’s pretty simple.I find myself walking away from a nice Winchester a few times a year because I just don’t think it’s worth it. But that my prerogative ….
as far as views from college, my step daughter was told, by a professor, that if she wanted a job when she got out of college that she’d better vote for Hillary!!! I dam near did a back flip. I also told her that she should vote for who she saw fit- and that her skills and personality would get her a job. That’s just one example of the lovely political crap she brought home…. now that she has been working for almost two years and looks at her statement and the taxes she singsa much better tune!!
i think that if you collect something, regardless of what it is or costs, and hunting it down, researching it ,and adding another to your collection makes you happy, then by all means keep up the good work….
I really like this analysis, I probably read it back in 2019 as a “lurker”, but now as a member I have to say it’s a good one. Maybe looking back at it after the Covid period will be interesting for some of you.
Steve led off with what I’ve also felt (I’m mid 50s). The days of guns always being a “better investment than most” and “you didn’t pay too much, you bought too soon” are over. What you do have these days are “panic – cult speculation” guns that boom, and bust. Someone says the something is being dropped like the Savage 99, Marlin .22 lever action, Auto 5, or recently ammo, primers, and ALL guns. Everyone runs out and scoops them up, at ANY price as QUICKLY as they see one. Not surprisingly, that Marlin 39 that was $300 in 2010 increased to $400, then $600 in just a couple years.
Steady increases based on quality of the arm, ease of finding one, it’s history are over. FLASH price increases are like most things in the internet age – bubbles that pop. Look at the Python craze of the past 10 years, when people were paying 1/3 more for one every year, until a 1980s stainless steel Python was selling for like $7000. Today? Not so much.
What does this mean? If you are a traditional slow and steady collector, don’t worry much about values. Stop listening to the people that try to justify a high price with the OLD language – you’ll get burned. Or, become very internet savvy, learn to wheel and deal the EMERGING cult trends, to buy low then quickly – resell. I don’t like that method. Because I’m a collector, motivated by history. Not by greed.
Please, somebody point to an auction in which most guns sold below, or even near, estimated values; almost always, prices are WAY above. Here on this forum, links to guns that sold for unbelievable prices are posted all the time. While the total number of collectors has declined, those who remain appear to richer, & more greedy, than ever before; that alone is enough to discourage beginning collectors, with limited funds, from attempting to compete against the high-rollers.
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