Chuck said
Steve, when it is possible to go to a gun show again, you need to spend more time at one instead of all the time you spend on the internet.  The stuff that goes on will drive you crazy.  Don’t buy guns that you haven’t actually picked up and looked at.  

But they guns don’t look as good when you hold them in your hand 😉

It is good advice.  Years ago (many years ago) I used to often buy out of the Shotgun News.  I also subscribed to many dealer’s catalogs.  Then came Gun List and for a while, the CADA Journal.  Buying out of these various sources usually involved seeing zero photos.  Verbal descriptions often left something to be desired. 

It was much more of a seller’s market back then. I remember calling sellers, some of who had pictures on hand.  They’d agree to send them and then a half hour later I’d get the call from them – “I’ve got a guy who will take it right now and he doesn’t need to see photos.”  

Reminds me of another lesson I learned at a gun show.  If you’re really interested in something, don’t take your hands off it (after getting permission to pick it up in the first place).  But if you’re interested, don’t set it back down until the deal is made (i.e. you set it back down to get your wallet out).  

When it comes to buying, it’s a delicate blend of not acting impulsively and exercising patience and self-discipline versus, “you snooze, you lose.” It’s very easy to get burned versus if something is really a prize, you will have other buyers doing everything they can to get ahead of you.

While it’s true with guns there are plenty of, “fish in the sea” there are also once in a lifetime chances.  As I’m sitting here reminiscing, I recall a pair of Savages I missed out on.  It started with calling a collector who had advertised a couple of early 1899 Savages.  As we talked, he mentioned he had a Savage M1895 SRC he would sell (it wasn’t currently advertised).  This was a holy grail Savage for me and I was darned interested.  We nailed down a price and all seemed good.  But then, he mentioned he had a Savage M1895 musket he would consider selling too.  Well, if you think Savage ’95 SRC’s are rare, the ’95 musket is at a whole different level.  He was going to get some details for me and I was going to call him back the next day.  I wasn’t too worried as they were not advertised for sale and he had owned them for decades.  I’m sure many have guessed the end of this story – probably lived it several times.  I called the next day.  His friend (and fellow Savage collector who lived locally) had stopped by.  They got to talking about the two 95’s and the friend said (of course), “I’ll take them.”  When I expressed my dismay the seller reminded me that we hadn’t finalized the deal.  This is the long distance version of my earlier example, “never take your hand off it.” 

Here it is decades later and I’ve never had another opportunity to purchase a Savage ’95 musket.  In fact, I’ve yet to ever even hold one in my hands.  The likelihood that I ever will is very poor.   

Kevin Jones said

I don’t believe anyone here has stated that a factory letter means or guarantees the rifle is “right” however it’s certainly is a step in the “right” direction to determining such. 

I only collect antiques so being in the letterable range isn’t typically an issue. I haven’t yet purchased an antique that didn’t letter. I’m very big on provenance so a factory letter is important to me in that respect. A fine old Winchester with accompanying factory letter make a nice addition to a gun collection.

Whether I would purchase a later Winchester outside the letter range would be determined by the specific rifle and other research and available verification. 

I will say again, the VAST MAJORITY of factory letters are correct.   

I suppose you are correct – none of us know the exact percentage – but I agree the majority are correct.  “VAST” is a subjective term.  I think it also depends on what is considered, “correct.”  First, there are actual errors.  For example, the factory ledgers record M1886’s in .22 (2), .22 long, .38-55 (6), .38-72, .40-72, .44 (9), .45-75 (5), and others.  These are likely other models that were recorded in the wrong line in the ledger.  Then, there are omissions.  Examples of more common omissions are where special order features are not mentioned.  I’ve seen many examples where some special order features, but not all are listed.  A typical example is engraving.  Factory engraved rifles often do not have the engraving noted in the ledger.  I can add this is particularly common with engraved Marlins. 

Is a factory letter that does not list every single feature of the rifle, “incorrect” in the minds of collectors here?