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And just how much have Winchester lever action valuations plummeted?
February 9, 2020
11:56 pm
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Not just declined...but plummeted.

I alluded to this in another post today.  A well attended antique arms show this weekend, there sits a 90% Winchester 1894, .25-35 WCF. Rifle, standard frame, crescent butt, round 26" barrel, looks like an honest gun.  Manufactured Dec 1907.  $2500 price tag, no interest in this gun.  The Red Book valued this one at $7344 in April 2016.  Admittedly, valuations in the Red Book seemed a little high even in 2016, but the devaluation recently may be more than we believe it to be.

February 10, 2020
12:54 am
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Good question.

From a general standpoint, the Red-Book values on the whole, runs high.  The Standard Catalog of Firearms, again, on the whole, ran high IMO.

Another Winchester that we discussed recently was a SRC in 38-55, sold by Austin on GB.  It was in about 90% and went for around $4500, which seemed reasonable, but the Red-Book showed about $6700.

Maybe the 25-35 you reference would sell for considerably more than what was asked for at the gun show were it listed on GB.  Who knows, for sure?

James

February 10, 2020
1:41 am
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Im not sure its a matter of a devaluation, but rather the anticipated rate of valuation increase over the years for certain guns has not kept pace with reality. 

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February 10, 2020
2:26 am
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  mrcvs, I think the $2500. price was about right. Round barrel and modern at a gun show does not leap of the table. T/R   

February 10, 2020
2:32 am
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From My experience, (over 50 years), I've watched values on various firearms go up and down depending on what is available and the economy and several other factors, it don't usually bother Me or prevent Me from purchasing what I like. I said it before ; "that antique firearms is the single best investment I've made in My lifetime". I still think nice desireable Winchesters will bring premium $'s and the ho-hum ones will bring ho-hum $'s, the junk will always be just that, and usually plentiful. The previous 5 to 15 years seen a big increase in antique Winchester prices mostly because We heard of the big prices a few very wealthy gatherers, not collectors, were paying for really high end Winchesters and this kind of filtered down thru the not so high end ones and right down to the "junk". This mostly over inflated the perseved "value" of these guns on the collectors market. I have in My collection a few pieces that were sold at very high $'s to some of these folks, no names, and have purchased them for considerably less than they paid for them. It's kind of like playing the stock market, like My man says "be patient", if You think You can buy low and sell high each time I tip My hat to You. Of course there will be regression and progression in the antique arms market, Just like everything else. I couldn't tell You how many times over the last # of years that I will be displaying for sale a really nice '94 or what ever, some one comes over, looks at it , looks at the price, say $12,000.00 and says "I have one just like it at home in the basement that I'd take $2,000.00 for". After asking all the pertinent questions I determine it is a $400.00 beater but to him His gun is now worth a lot cause there was one at the gun show some guy in a cowboy hat was asking $12,000.00 for. However I say don't sweat the price drop right now, just enjoy it and buy as many as You can afford. Remember ? "buy low, sell high"

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February 10, 2020
2:38 am
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I’d like to think this rifle would do better in an auction. I’ve been a little disappointed at the few antique arms shows I’ve attended recently. Only a small percentage of the collectors/dealers are buying in spite the appearance of a buyers’ market. That could mean they feel we haven’t hit bottom yet or the sellers (like me) are clinging to yesterday’s numbers.

 

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February 11, 2020
2:22 am
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mrcvs said
Not just declined...but plummeted.

I alluded to this in another post today.  A well attended antique arms show this weekend, there sits a 90% Winchester 1894, .25-35 WCF. Rifle, standard frame, crescent butt, round 26" barrel, looks like an honest gun.  Manufactured Dec 1907.  $2500 price tag, no interest in this gun.  The Red Book valued this one at $7344 in April 2016.  Admittedly, valuations in the Red Book seemed a little high even in 2016, but the devaluation recently may be more than we believe it to be.  

Condition is so subjective. I’ve had guns that I feel were 30-40% & an experience long time collector told me it was 60%.
As we’ve discussed, round barrel is not in demand like an octagon or 1/2 octagon & I suggest that alone dictated the price someone was willing to pay.
I do agree the majority of values in the books are a lot higher than what the hammer price is the majority of the time the last few years, but I would’ve paid $2500 for this 25-35 made in 1907 in 90% condition, round barrel or not.

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February 11, 2020
4:31 pm
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  Maybe gun book prices should be looked at from the the sellers point of view. Instead of basing the value on hammer or price realized, base it on the sellers return after fees, the difference is 30 plus percent. At auction the gun was sold retail and the seller's return is 60 some percent of retail. Another factor is liquidity, an idem in demand sells faster and for more than one that's not. If the book had a liquidity factor rating of one to ten behind each model and configuration it would help.  That said, the book is just a guide and you will know what you think the gun is worth when you buy it, but you find out what it's really  worth when you sell it, not before. A collector that has not yet sold some of his pieces does not understand how hard it is in this market. T/R   

February 11, 2020
4:42 pm
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TR said
  Maybe gun book prices should be looked at from the the sellers point of view. Instead of basing the value on hammer or price realized, base it on the sellers return after fees, the difference is 30 plus percent. At auction the gun was sold retail and the seller's return is 60 some percent of retail. Another factor is liquidity, an idem in demand sells faster and for more than one that's not. If the book had a liquidity factor rating of one to ten behind each model and configuration it would help.  That said, the book is just a guide and you will know what you think the gun is worth when you buy it, but you find out what it's really  worth when you sell it, not before. A collector that has not yet sold some of his pieces does not understand how hard it is in this market. T/R     

I agree TR. well said.

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February 11, 2020
5:12 pm
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AG said

I agree TR. well said.  

And that's pretty much the facts of the matter, so the old saying of Buyer Beware has always been the most definitive guide...books just add a great deal of pleasure to all too many of us too!

February 11, 2020
9:40 pm
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TR said
  Maybe gun book prices should be looked at from the the sellers point of view. Instead of basing the value on hammer or price realized, base it on the sellers return after fees, the difference is 30 plus percent. At auction the gun was sold retail and the seller's return is 60 some percent of retail. Another factor is liquidity, an idem in demand sells faster and for more than one that's not. If the book had a liquidity factor rating of one to ten behind each model and configuration it would help.  That said, the book is just a guide and you will know what you think the gun is worth when you buy it, but you find out what it's really  worth when you sell it, not before. A collector that has not yet sold some of his pieces does not understand how hard it is in this market. T/R     

MANY, if not MOST auction houses, include buyer's premium in the hammer price.  This is obvious when hammer prices are oddball amounts, sometimes including cents, in the hammer price.  So, usually the posted auction prices, if not full retail, represent the auction price including commission at that point in time.  The wild cards, of course, are was it paid for in cash, or was a 3% credit card fee incurred, was it taken home locally or was shipping involved, and/or was there sales tax and, if so, how much?

February 11, 2020
10:07 pm
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I still refer to Bert’s red book before buying any Winchester above 30% condition, & besides, the gun value books lately make me feel like I got a good deal, whether I did or not. 🤦🏻‍♂️

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February 11, 2020
11:03 pm
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  mrcvs, I should have been more specific when referring to auction, what I meant was a major live auction. At Rock Island  it's  hammer price plus 15% buyers fee equals price realized. Then if you use a credit card a percentage is added, then if you use a online internet service a percentage is added, then 8.5% sales tax is added on the subtotal  unless you are a dealer with a resale permit, then shipping and their insurance is added, and don't forget the seller check has a deduction of 15% for the sellers fee. BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WHAT THE BUYER PAYS AND WHAT THE SELLER GETS. Many first time sellers are shocked by the numbers. T/R

February 11, 2020
11:09 pm
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TR said
  mrcvs, I should have been more specific when referring to auction, what I meant was a major live auction. At Rock Island  it's  hammer price plus 15% buyers fee equals price realized. Then if you use a credit card a percentage is added, then if you use a online internet service a percentage is added, then 8.5% sales tax is added on the subtotal  unless you are a dealer with a resale permit, then shipping and their insurance is added, and don't forget the seller check has a deduction of 15% for the sellers fee. BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WHAT THE BUYER PAYS AND WHAT THE SELLER GETS. Many first time sellers are shocked by the numbers. T/R  

I’ve never sent a piece to auction, and this confirms why. I wouldn't be happy with those charges selling a high value piece.

AG

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February 11, 2020
11:40 pm
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I've worked with young people aged 17 to 24 for about 35 years now. I see a massive difference between what that age group was interested in when I was that age and today. What I infer from that is that only a small faction of them will have an interest in collecting Winchesters compared to the men who are closer to my age (50's and 60's). To put an optimistic perspective on this, over the next 10 years we should be entering the golden era of acquiring classic old Winchesters at much lower prices than we have had to pay in the past.

February 12, 2020
12:13 am
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 Kirk, I like your optimistic perspective, maybe my hobby will get cheaper. T/R

February 12, 2020
12:52 am
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They may be cheaper to buy, but when you all reach retirement age, (10 to 20 years from now) who will you sell them to?  I venture to say, many guys won't even know what your guns are, let alone want to buy them.  I sincerely hope I'm wrong.

February 12, 2020
12:57 am
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TR said
  mrcvs, I should have been more specific when referring to auction, what I meant was a major live auction. At Rock Island  it's  hammer price plus 15% buyers fee equals price realized. Then if you use a credit card a percentage is added, then if you use a online internet service a percentage is added, then 8.5% sales tax is added on the subtotal  unless you are a dealer with a resale permit, then shipping and their insurance is added, and don't forget the seller check has a deduction of 15% for the sellers fee. BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WHAT THE BUYER PAYS AND WHAT THE SELLER GETS. Many first time sellers are shocked by the numbers. T/R  

I agree with all that you said.  Not all auction houses add for shipping and insurance. Some charge higher/lower for the seller's/ buyer's premium. Most charge 3% more for using a credit card.  Then you add a few % more if you are an internet buyer. Some will charge the seller more fees to return something that did not sell.  I pay by check and only buy from auction house that I have had the chance to actually inspect the gun in person to avoid the extra fees and aggravation.  You also have to know that all of the extras are added then the sales tax is applied.  If you have a large collection seller's premium and other fees can be negotiated.

Read the contracts and fine print very carefully. 

February 12, 2020
3:29 am
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Kirk Durston said
I've worked with young people aged 17 to 24 for about 35 years now. I see a massive difference between what that age group was interested in when I was that age and today. What I infer from that is that only a small faction of them will have an interest in collecting Winchesters compared to the men who are closer to my age (50's and 60's). To put an optimistic perspective on this, over the next 10 years we should be entering the golden era of acquiring classic old Winchesters at much lower prices than we have had to pay in the past.  

A positive perspective for us younger Winchester collectors!

A man can never have too many WINCHESTERS...

February 12, 2020
7:36 am
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Ouch!

For some of us older lovers...

In ten years, I buy a beautiful Winchester at an excellent price.  Whoopeeeeee!  Life is grand!

  Then, I bring it home, kiss it, and drop dead!

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