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And just how much have Winchester lever action valuations plummeted?
February 12, 2020
9:39 am
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Ct
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FromTheWoods said
Ouch!

For some of us older lovers...

In ten years, I buy a beautiful Winchester at an excellent price.  Whoopeeeeee!  Life is grand!

  Then, I bring it home, kiss it, and drop dead!  

Hahaha. Love it.

AG

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February 12, 2020
1:06 pm
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Given todays Winchester valuations, I think this Model 1892 short rifle did very well.  Some proof that the more rare guns with good condition are holding their own?

https://www.gunbroker.com/item/853822123

Al

February 12, 2020
4:47 pm
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tionesta1 said
Given todays Winchester valuations, I think this Model 1892 short rifle did very well.  Some proof that the more rare guns with good condition are holding their own?

https://www.gunbroker.com/item/853822123

Al  

Makes me rethink not owning one!!! Smile

James

February 14, 2020
2:41 pm
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win4575 said
They may be cheaper to buy, but when you all reach retirement age, (10 to 20 years from now) who will you sell them to?  I venture to say, many guys won't even know what your guns are, let alone want to buy them.  I sincerely hope I'm wrong.  

Ok, younger guys won't want my Winchesters... but they'll still want my Marlins, Savages, Bullards. Whitney-Kennedys... right? Right?

February 14, 2020
3:50 pm
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steve004 said

Ok, younger guys won't want my Winchesters... but they'll still want my Marlins, Savages, Bullards. Whitney-Kennedys... right? Right?  

Of course cuz those Other ones sound like rap singers or rock bands!!

AG

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February 15, 2020
3:08 pm
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I think what we are seeing is simple economics.  We are experiencing a market adjustment based upon market forces.  Prices (i.e. that people will buy at) have fallen and will continue to fall due to decreased number of buyers.  I also believe that will continue to the point that when prices fall far enough, there will be another market adjustment - in the other direction.  Winchesters now bringing $10,000 won't have to drop down to $5 for them to sell.  Maybe they'll have to drop down to $5000, or even $500 but they won't be worth nothing (unless some draconian political factors come into play).  

I speculate when prices fall low enough, interest will take a turn in a positive direction.  People will see them as affordable again.  As we've discussed in other threads, they have become not affordable to the average person.  The impact of the big auction houses, the impact of "investors" entering the market, etc. have pushed prices way up.  Up further than they should be in my estimation.

When market forces change, change has to occur.  I think about stores that have merchandise that sees a drop in demand.  They cut prices! Often significantly.  In our area, we have dealers at gun shows with tables full of Winchesters sitting at prices they used to sell at.  And at the end of the show, they pack up nearly all they came with.  They refuse to yield to market forces.  Which is their choice of course.  And, it is unfortunate to get caught up in market forces - when they go in the wrong direction.  But it happens.  Sometimes you come out on top, sometimes you don't.  I know of some collectors who disbursed their collections a while ago and they, very much, came out on top.  Those that didn't do that can chalk it up to the uncertainty of life.  

As I reflect on this, I am aware that for most of my life, Winchesters have steadily escalated in value.  We've seen hammer prices at the big auction houses soar for the top grade rifles.  For most of my life, it seemed values would steadily escalate with no end to it.  I realize now that was unrealistic and what is happening is quite logical.  The old, "what goes up must come down." 

February 15, 2020
4:52 pm
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  Steve, If I would have spent my gun money on a late model RV parked in the driveway, over 30 years, my money would be gone. My guns still have value, I still enjoy my hobby, and I don't have a RV to fix. All hobbies cost money. T/R

February 15, 2020
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Believe me the topic of a certain gun type becoming less desirable/valuable has been going on longer than any of us have lived.  40 years ago the old timers were complaining about their flint and percussion guns.   Today many of the nice ones bring good money and even the lesser models in an unmolested state have value.  I'm like TR.  I am not worried about resale value.  I just keep buying guns that are less expensive now than what they were 5 or 10 years ago.

February 15, 2020
10:40 pm
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steve004 said
I think what we are seeing is simple economics.  We are experiencing a market adjustment based upon market forces.  Prices (i.e. that people will buy at) have fallen and will continue to fall due to decreased number of buyers.  I also believe that will continue to the point that when prices fall far enough, there will be another market adjustment - in the other direction.  Winchesters now bringing $10,000 won't have to drop down to $5 for them to sell.  Maybe they'll have to drop down to $5000, or even $500 but they won't be worth nothing (unless some draconian political factors come into play).  

I speculate when prices fall low enough, interest will take a turn in a positive direction.  People will see them as affordable again.  As we've discussed in other threads, they have become not affordable to the average person.  The impact of the big auction houses, the impact of "investors" entering the market, etc. have pushed prices way up.  Up further than they should be in my estimation.

When market forces change, change has to occur.  I think about stores that have merchandise that sees a drop in demand.  They cut prices! Often significantly.  In our area, we have dealers at gun shows with tables full of Winchesters sitting at prices they used to sell at.  And at the end of the show, they pack up nearly all they came with.  They refuse to yield to market forces.  Which is their choice of course.  And, it is unfortunate to get caught up in market forces - when they go in the wrong direction.  But it happens.  Sometimes you come out on top, sometimes you don't.  I know of some collectors who disbursed their collections a while ago and they, very much, came out on top.  Those that didn't do that can chalk it up to the uncertainty of life.  

As I reflect on this, I am aware that for most of my life, Winchesters have steadily escalated in value.  We've seen hammer prices at the big auction houses soar for the top grade rifles.  For most of my life, it seemed values would steadily escalate with no end to it.  I realize now that was unrealistic and what is happening is quite logical.  The old, "what goes up must come down."   

Well said steve004 and I agree. Very honest but realistic, whether others wanna believe it or not.

AG

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February 16, 2020
3:18 pm
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And here's a Model 1886 that sold yesterday for $1,000, plus on-site buyer's premium of 10%, means it brought $11,000.

I created this thread to begin with, so this one is surprising as to what it brought as, despite many special order features, the receiver, especially the right side, is mostly patina.  It brought more than I would have expected given these condition issues and the fact the rifle is not an antique, especially in today's market.

https://www.proxibid.com/Firearms-Military-Artifacts/Firearms/Fantastic-Winchester-Model-1886-Special-Order-Deluxe-Takedown-45-90-wcf/lotInformation/52550410

February 16, 2020
3:43 pm
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I can't hold this piece in my hands, but assuming it would hold up under close inspection, it is a neat piece.  I find I like it a lot and would enjoy owning it.  I really like that the sights and other features letter.  I love the statement in the letter:  "Sighted point blank 100 yards."  To my way of thinking, this one sold very reasonably.  But as I've already stated, I'm concerned my way of thinking (when it comes to value) is out of touch with the present times.  Thanks for posting it.  I think I could find a lot of happiness with that rifle.

Edit:  in running through the photos again, there is a wood/metal gap at the rear of the forearm.  This made me less happy with this rifle.  

February 16, 2020
3:51 pm
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steve004 said
I can't hold this piece in my hands, but assuming it would hold up under close inspection, it is a neat piece.  I find I like it a lot and would enjoy owning it.  I really like that the sights and other features letter.  I love the statement in the letter:  "Sighted point blank 100 yards."  To my way of thinking, this one sold very reasonably.  But as I've already stated, I'm concerned my way of thinking (when it comes to value) is out of touch with the present times.  Thanks for posting it.  I think I could find a lot of happiness with that rifle.

Edit:  in running through the photos again, there is a wood/metal gap at the rear of the forearm.  This made me less happy with this rifle.    

Yes, I noted the wood-metal gap, and found that to be problematic.  I looked at it in person a few weeks ago at a gun show, and thought that, in today's market and with identified problems, it was worth little more than half of what it eventually brought.  I liked the letter on it a lot, and found that part of it to be neat.  I did note that on-line bidding was at around $7500 before the auction began, with "reserve not met".  I'm guessing that the reserve may have been $10,000, and the auctioneer revealed the reserve and someone met it, for better or worse.  In the live part of the auction, if the reserve is not met, the auctioneer at this auction house will announce it and ask if anyone will meet it.

February 16, 2020
5:40 pm
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I have the exact same rifle and only 3 serial numbers older than this one. This one has the same exact description & shipping date as mine on my factory letter. I couldn’t believe it when I read the serial number. Cool info.

AG

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February 16, 2020
6:39 pm
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AG said
I have the exact same rifle and only 3 serial numbers older than this one. This one has the same exact description & shipping date as mine on my factory letter. I couldn’t believe it when I read the serial number. Cool info.

AG  

That is very cool.  Doesn't it make you want to own both of them?  Does yours specify it is sighted point blank at 100 yards as well?  It would be interesting to see the ledger page on these rifles.  I wonder if the ones between yours and this one are the same configuration?  

February 16, 2020
6:45 pm
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steve004 said

That is very cool.  Doesn't it make you want to own both of them?  Does yours specify it is sighted point blank at 100 yards as well?  It would be interesting to see the ledger page on these rifles.  I wonder if the ones between yours and this one are the same configuration?    

Item Description: Translate description
"Fantastic Winchester, Model 1886 Special Order Deluxe Takedown, .45-90 wcf,

s/n 126314,

rifle, brl length 26"", very good plus condition, lever action, Cody Search result is matching to the rifle and appears as follows: Serial number application date not available Type: Rifle Caliber: 45/90 Barrel Type: 1/2 Octagon Trigger: Plain Checkered stock, Pistol grip Sights: Lyman front, Cup Disc rear, flat top sporting rear sights Takedown Sighted point blank 100 years Received in warehouse on September 06, 1902 Shipped from warehouse on September 06, 1902 Order Number 154679 Beautifully grained walnut borderline checkered pistol grip stock and forend with visible case coloring showing a majority still remaining on hammer, butt plate and lever with Niter bluing present on loading gate and trigger. Original bluing on barrel and tube magazine retain almost all finish with minor thinning on leading edge and around tube at retaining band. There are approximately 6 very small areas of almost unnoticeable fine freckling 2.5" from barrel transition. Bluing on receiver shows thinning of original finish with the left side retaining 95 plus percent. Wood shows some handling indentation being light. Fantastic example of a Deluxe .45/90 Takedown. Bore shines As New.

Here’s mine. s/n 1263113946E4C3-0608-47B2-82A2-865DC4AB52DE.jpegImage Enlarger

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February 16, 2020
7:15 pm
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You know me I don't like gaps but the rifle looks good in the pictures.  I don't think, if the gun is right, that 10K is not out of line.

February 16, 2020
7:22 pm
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Chuck said
You know me I don't like gaps but the rifle looks good in the pictures.  I don't think, if the gun is right, that 10K is not out of line.  

I agree. I would’ve paid 10k all day long.

AG

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February 16, 2020
7:34 pm
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AG, you didn't reply on the 1890's that I sent info for?  Did you have these already?

February 16, 2020
7:42 pm
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Chuck said
AG, you didn't reply on the 1890's that I sent info for?  Did you have these already?  

Sorry Chuck I don’t remember receiving it. Can you resend.

AG

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February 16, 2020
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Patinated receiver hurts this one all day long.  Plus it was 11k with commission before taxes.

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