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Survivability
February 18, 2013
8:26 pm
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I think also the reason there are more earlier 92 numbers in your survey is that most collectors will consider the earlier serials more likely to be the standard "collector" winchester. The older or lower serial number the more valuable they are, whether being a "antique" or simply being an older Winchester.

If you look at the 1950s Universal for 1 of 1000s there were 28 guns found out of approx 133 produced. That is a 21% survival rate of a very specific portion of production, of which prior too the 1950s search for the most part most didn't even know such type of gun even existed. Granted this example has its problems as being related too the rest of surviving production, but it paints a picture towards the survival rate being surprisingly high. Also several more 1 of 1000s have been found since.

And with the position many now have about something being marked "Winchester" as being more valuable and an investment. I believe the survival rate will continue to rise and eventually plateau.

Sincerely,
Maverick

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February 19, 2013
4:22 am
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Bert wrote:

I have run across Model 92s in Brazil and Chile.

I am extremely surprised you would do that! 😯 I typically brake hard and swerve left or right. Then back up and throw the rifle in the back seat. Is there something about having tire tread imprints on these guns Bert that increases their potential value???

Just trying to learn, Wink
Michael

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Model 1892 / Model 61 Collector, Research, Valuation

February 19, 2013
6:21 am
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Michael,

Leaving tire tracks on them would require running "over" them.

That stated, running them over with my truck would be a good test to determine if it is one of those cheap pot metal South American made reproductions 😈

Bert

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February 19, 2013
7:24 am
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Argentina is another country that has a lot of 1892's. I have seen some but not many in Belize as well. They are harder to find in these areas because of each countries gun laws. Most have been confiscated or turned in I would imagine.

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February 19, 2013
10:13 am
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Hi Bert,

here´s another model 1885 from Finland for your survey: Low Wall cal 25-20 Single-Shot, 28-inch octagon with shotgun butt. Plain wood, sling swivels. Serial number is 95407. Just bought it on Sunday, maybe I post some pictures when we get rid of the snow - there´s about 35 inches of the white stuff outside now...

March 2, 2013
8:28 pm
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waterman said
I agree with those who says that the number of surviving old Winchesters is higher than collectors' records indicate. Some are lost, tucked away in attics or elsewhere until someone discovers them. Others are family guns or are still working guns and the data will not be shared, just on general principle. Some collectors & latter-day owners share the information, but there are many who do not. My gut feeling is that those who do not share SN data far outnumber the relatively few who do share those data.

With the 1892 data, only about 4100 items out of more than a million have been recorded. That is a 0.4 % recorded survival rate and to me that is unbelievably low. 92s came out after most of the real hard work was done, and they are neat, durable and desirable. My guess at the "real" survival rate would be closer to 40 %.

I have to agree with what Waterman states, but I think the survivability is probably much higher than 40%. But --- model and production date/span would have a lot to do with the number still at hand.

March 3, 2013
7:26 am
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Bert H. said
Michael,

Leaving tire tracks on them would require running "over" them.

That stated, running them over with my truck would be a good test to determine if it is one of those cheap pot metal South American made reproductions 😈

Bert

Hey Bert, would the cheap pot metal South American made reproduction,be in referance to the rifles or your truck? 😈 😈

March 3, 2013
9:47 am
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The surveys being done are great and very useful for their intended purpose - to document changes in markings, etc., and to help verify originality. But, they are too small a sampling (twobit has recorded less than 1/2 of 1% of the '92 production) to give any indication of survival rates. There are many thousands of Winchesters here in the U.S. that are owned by people that aren't collectors and don't do gun shows or check gun sites on the internet. These guns may never get included in surveys.

March 3, 2013
10:54 am
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Bert H. said
Michael,

Leaving tire tracks on them would require running "over" them.

That stated, running them over with my truck would be a good test to determine if it is one of those cheap pot metal South American made reproductions 😈

Bert

Hey Bert, would the cheap pot metal South American made reproduction,be in referance to the rifles or your truck? 😈 😈

Doug,

Ha ha ha... In this case, it refers to the cheap reproduction Model 92s, but it could also apply to anyone who drives a FORD truck. We all know that my Dodge Ram 3500 CTD is what all other makers aspire to emulate 8)

Bert

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March 3, 2013
5:07 pm
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Twobit (that's me) wrote:
I am not, in any way shape or form, representing that this is a "only surviving" rifles count. The data only shows those rifles, out of a huge number of existing, or surviving rifles, that I have been able to access for the purpose of trying to document the changes made during production.

Again, I never claimed to be counting the survivability of the Model 1892's. the only inference that might be drawn from what I have done to date is that the sampling of rifles is fairly even throughout the production run until the last 10 years or so. That MIGHT IMPLY that the survivability is fairly even across the span of the production. If I had only found a sampling of just 20 rifles out of the first 80,000 or so that had been made and then increasingly more throughout the higher serial numbers then one MIGHT POSSIBLY draw a conclusion that most of the older rifles have disappeared and that newer rifles have a higher surviving rate. But, I do not think that is shown by the sampling I have come across.

Michael

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Model 1892 / Model 61 Collector, Research, Valuation

March 3, 2013
8:24 pm
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It may be hard to come up with any real proof that can be considered
accurate when trying to work with such a fraction of numbers that were
produced? But that doesn't mean one can't try to determine the outcome
anyway. I have read and studied the history involved in the advancement
in fire-arms and the company's and the people involved in the develope-
ment of them for the better part of my time. By the time the Model 1892
came along the Country had began to settle down quite a bit and the
fire-arms began to become for sporting rather than survival. In point I
think you will naturally find more Model 1892's survived than Model 1866's
also I think most will agree that the carbines did't fair as well as the rifles.
Also from what i have learned is that the ones that left the country and
went south of the border hard far harder lives also. I want to point out
that there was still some pretty rough country left in 1892 through the
early 1900's but nothing compared to the prior 30 or 40 years.

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