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Survivability
January 22, 2013
7:23 pm
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I was at home the other day and finally got a chance to show my 92 to my old friend that got me to collecting. He brought up a good question that I hadn't really thought of.
Is there a noticeable difference in the % of guns found for different time periods? In other words, there has to be a certain point, probably with the evolution of the automobile, where Winchesters had to have a much higher chance of making it to see another day.
If you look at the first 13 yrs of the 92(~325,000 rifles) and the next 6 years(~325,000), are there more guns that pop up in the second time frame than the first? I assume the answer is yes but I wonder to what extent? I know that there's a lot of wiggle room due to the fact that the earlier guns sometimes are "hidden" by collectors but it would be cool to see the difference in riding in the scabbard of a cowboy rig and riding in the seat of the Ford. My friend was saying that of the 703 guns before mine that he would be suprised if 350 made it during that period of time ❓
I guess this question can only be answered by those with data. I would also assume it would only really be that noticeble on the earlier guns(1873, 1886, 1892...
Just a thought........

January 22, 2013
8:27 pm
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I have seen this in the 73's. First models with high condition is very very rare, the bulk of them are no finish guns. I figure they got carried by horse or wagon and got weathered. The second models seem to survived with more finish and more with the third models. The later guns got carried in better environments as well as they are just that many years newer.

Bob

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January 22, 2013
10:19 pm
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I think that is a tough nut to crack to answer your question.

My personable believe is somewhat different than most. I'm actually one of the few people that believe that there are more surviving guns out there. Granted I'm talking about survivability in terms of the gun still being in existance and not referring to condition of the gun. Now survivability as far as condition goes is a totally different ball game.

Also you would have to look at each Model of Winchester as having its own survivability. And time periods maybe an odd x-factor that play into a models suvivability.

For instance, most of the model 95 production (close to 300,000) were produced as muskets and sent to Russia to be used during WWI. Most of these saw hard use and lots being destroyed during the war. I believe also that there were several shipments lost in translate to Russia. I think I remember hearing some ships carrying arms were lost to U-boat attacks.

Then take the Model 93. Most of its production was lost due too it having been recalled once the model 97 began being produced.

Then there are the scrap drives during WWII. Of which I'm sure some Winchesters may have been lost too. But I would imagine most people still saw much use in there guns and were unlikely or unwilling to scrap them.

I could go on for each model further but I think you get my point that you kind of need an open mind and that there are lots of factors to consider.

Sincerely,
Maverick

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January 23, 2013
5:20 am
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Hello,

I have just over 4000 Model 1892's cataloged in my survey of that Model. Assuming I am randomly sampling the population of rifles that 'survive' let me generate a list of how many guns per 50,000 SN's I have and see what it looks like. I will get back in a couple days.

Michael

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Model 1892 / Model 61 Collector, Research, Valuation

January 23, 2013
8:36 am
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Michael, that will be fascinating. I will look forward to your results.

January 23, 2013
10:35 am
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Thanks Michael. Sounds great!

February 16, 2013
9:30 pm
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Michael,
I was wandering if you ever got a chance to look at your numbers? I'm sure thats alot of work but figured I would ask. Thanks man.

Mike

February 17, 2013
7:13 am
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Good morning,

OK. I sat down and did the computations this morning. Now when I get a chance later in the week I will make a graph of the data and it will look better than just a long tabulation of numbers. But since you asked here it is. Sorry that it does not display better via a cut and past from Excell or Word. I am not certain there are any meaningful conclusions to draw right now.

Thanks for the prod.
Michael

SN Range No. of Rifles
1 10000 111
10000 20000 69
20000 30000 68
30000 40000 46
40000 50000 30
50000 60000 38
60000 70000 18
70000 80000 29
80000 90000 34
90000 100000 43
100000 110000 34
110000 120000 23
120000 130000 21
130000 140000 34
140000 150000 37
150000 160000 38
160000 170000 31
170000 180000 56
180000 190000 40
190000 200000 26
200000 210000 44
210000 220000 42
220000 230000 39
230000 240000 46
240000 250000 24
250000 260000 36
260000 270000 46
270000 280000 52
280000 290000 35
290000 300000 28
300000 310000 29
310000 320000 16
320000 330000 34
330000 340000 35
340000 350000 38
350000 360000 34
360000 370000 30
370000 380000 42
380000 390000 30
390000 400000 45
400000 410000 31
410000 420000 41
420000 430000 26
430000 440000 58
440000 450000 29
450000 460000 38
460000 470000 27
470000 480000 30
480000 490000 41
490000 500000 38
500000 510000 26
510000 520000 34
520000 530000 32
530000 540000 27
540000 550000 42
550000 560000 21
560000 570000 13
570000 580000 24
580000 590000 35
590000 600000 36
600000 610000 25
610000 620000 49
620000 630000 40
630000 640000 31
640000 650000 33
650000 660000 39
660000 670000 23
670000 680000 25
680000 690000 22
690000 700000 29
700000 710000 54
710000 720000 30
720000 730000 49
730000 740000 44
740000 750000 31
750000 760000 27
760000 770000 51
770000 780000 38
780000 790000 32
790000 800000 51
800000 810000 49
810000 820000 20
820000 830000 34
830000 840000 66
840000 850000 73
850000 860000 78
860000 870000 68
870000 880000 69
880000 890000 26
890000 900000 23
900000 910000 72
910000 920000 81
920000 930000 99
930000 940000 70
940000 950000 61
950000 960000 52
960000 970000 54
970000 980000 39
980000 990000 70
990000 1000000 86
1000000 1010000 8
Total 4121

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Model 1892 / Model 61 Collector, Research, Valuation

February 17, 2013
2:56 pm
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In my survey of the Model 1885, I have not found any noticeable difference in the number of them I have found in each 10,000 segment. The survival number for the old Winchesters is (in my opinion) much higher than some authors have postulated.

Bert

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February 17, 2013
4:52 pm
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Well, there are a few old Winchesters being dismembered every week on ebay. Laugh All the parts and sights have to be coming from somewhere. I know I buy and sell a few there once and awhile...sights anyway.

Looks like a big project Michael!

Brad

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February 17, 2013
6:12 pm
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I copied the 1892 survivability data into an excel spreadsheet and used an analytical technique called "double mass analysis" to create a graphic that I do not know how to display here. What it tells us is that collectors who have reported the numbers have concentrated on the low numbered actions. 4 or fewer digits are in demand & so are actions with 5-digit numbers. That is an obvious "no brainer".

Less obvious is that starting about #550,000, the number of rifles reported is much lower. This lower number of reported serials continues until about action #850,000. Why should there be a slump like this? Were some of these rifles exported?

With actions above #850,000 the survivability rate climbs greatly. My understanding is that the 92s with high numbers were sold in the late 1920s, when the economy was booming and the buyer might not necessarily have needed a 92 as a working or hunting gun. Thus, it was more likely to have been stashed in a gun cabinet, closet or attic than an earlier rifle.

February 17, 2013
11:38 pm
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Are the Model 65 serials part of the 1892 series?

February 18, 2013
5:50 am
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I believe that there is another factor that needs to be considered when looking at survivability rates: where the gun was sold/used.

My gut tells me that guns purchased on the east coast, especially in the larger cities: New York, Boston, Philadelphia, where folks had to travel further to go hunting and thus didn’t get used as often had a better survivability rate. These larger cities also were a bit more “Civilized”.

Guns that went out west, Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, generally were used more, and in more austere conditions, generally have a lower survival rate.

Would be very hard to actually research, like I said…just a gut feeling, with some commons sense thrown in.

February 18, 2013
9:13 am
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waterman said
Are the Model 65 serials part of the 1892 series?

Yes, the M65's are numbered within the 1892/92 sn range.

~Gary~

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February 18, 2013
9:28 am
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I agree with those who says that the number of surviving old Winchesters is higher than collectors' records indicate. Some are lost, tucked away in attics or elsewhere until someone discovers them. Others are family guns or are still working guns and the data will not be shared, just on general principle. Some collectors & latter-day owners share the information, but there are many who do not. My gut feeling is that those who do not share SN data far outnumber the relatively few who do share those data.

With the 1892 data, only about 4100 items out of more than a million have been recorded. That is a 0.4 % recorded survival rate and to me that is unbelievably low. 92s came out after most of the real hard work was done, and they are neat, durable and desirable. My guess at the "real" survival rate would be closer to 40 %.

February 18, 2013
9:49 am
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Waterman wrote:

With the 1892 data, only about 4100 items out of more than a million have been recorded. That is a 0.4 % recorded survival rate and to me that is unbelievably low.

To all,

I am not, in any way shape or form, representing that this is a "only surviving" rifles count. The data only shows those rifles, out of a huge number of existing, or surviving rifles, that I have been able to access for the purpose of trying to document the changes made during production. I know of several hundred other rifles that are not yet included in these data. And every week there are new examples at auction and on websites that will continue to be added. I do think that the number of exported rifles that I will have limited contact with may come into play. But, until proven otherwise the export % may have been even throughout production. In addition, I do have a few guys in Australia funneling data to me in an attempt to capture some of those rifles.

Michael

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Model 1892 / Model 61 Collector, Research, Valuation

February 18, 2013
9:56 am
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waterman wrote:
Are the Model 65 serials part of the 1892 series?

Yes, the M65's are numbered within the 1892/92 sn range.

The Model 65 rifles are almost exclusivley in the +1,000,000 SN range so they have littl impact on the data. A possible larger iimpact is the number of Model 53 rifles which are number in the 1892/92 series and first appear around SN 962000.

Michael

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Model 1892 / Model 61 Collector, Research, Valuation

February 18, 2013
12:55 pm
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My guess is that closer to 70% of the Model 1892s are still in existance today. What I have discovered through my research, is that there are several hundred thousand Winchesters that are outside of the U.S. borders, and gernerally speaking, we collectors here in the U.S. have very little exposure to them.

The countries with the highest number of Winchesters (not necessarily in order) are as follows;

1. Australia
2. Canada
3. Mexico
4. Sweden
5. Norway
6. Finland
7. Brazil
8. Chile
9. Argentina
10. United Kingdom (England, Scotland, Ireland)
11. Belgium
12. Switzerland
13. New Zealand
14. France
15. India
16. Germany
17. Turkey
18. Italy
19. Spain
20. Denmark

For those who are curious about how I developed the above list... I have surveyed Model 1885 rifles in all of those countries ❗ I very much suspect that the Models 1873, 1892, 1894, and at least a few others are at least as widely dispersed around the globe.

Bert

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February 18, 2013
1:08 pm
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So far the surveyed 1892's from outside the U.S. come from:
Australia
Canada
Mexico
Sweden
Finland
Argentina
England
New Zealand
Croatia

Michael

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Model 1892 / Model 61 Collector, Research, Valuation

February 18, 2013
1:13 pm
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Michael,

I have run across Model 92s in Brazil and Chile.

Bert

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