Winchester middle of the road prices soft lately?|General Discussions & Questions|Forum|Winchester Collector

mrcvs said
By this I mean the nice stuff in the $3000 to $10,000 or so range.

It seems that some of this stuff, or all of it, seems a bit on the low side—but the sample size is low.

There will always be a demand for the low end stuff for folks forever broke who want a Winchester.  The $1500 and under stuff.  The values of these aren’t going anywhere as the broke can’t afford much more, but they will dish out what they have just to have a Winchester.

The high end stuff rises relentlessly for the really wealthy, as money doesn’t matter to them.  They want the very best and pay nosebleed prices and when that stuff comes up for sale again, it sells for so much more than the previous sake that it makes the previous sale seem like not so much of a nosebleed.

The middle class folks like most on this forum strive to buy the best they can, but are impacted by INFLATION, questionable job security, and stagnant wages, and so their purchasing power is limited.  This range seems to be from about $3000 to about the $10,000 range.

That segment of the Winchester rifle collector’s market seems to be soft lately.  Decreased selling prices or not selling.  It so it seems to me.

Now the question is, is this temporary, a reflection of a stock market correction recently, inflation, etc.?  Or, is it the heralded “correction” (perhaps forever) to this segment of the market?

Other threads have forewarned this segment of the field will be hit hard someday.  The individuals with lower wages and an interest will cause the low end to perpetually thrive.  The high end will remain strong as investors, many of whom have likely never fired a firearm before, prop that end up and values continue into the atmosphere with seemingly no resistance whatsoever.

The segment impacted are, I think, most of what we on this forum have.  We strive for rarity and condition, 80% to 95% is what we hope for, anything greater than that is for the big boys.  I think we have decent white collar positions or respectable tradesmen positions.  Those of us being white collar are impacted by less interest by our younger colleagues due to increased urbanization, unfamiliarity with firearms, and an education system that punishes interest in firearms.  And we are the segment of the population that is impacted most by inflation, the stock market, a need to invest in a retirement plan regularly, increasing taxes, college tuition, etc.

Thoughts?  Does this seem to be your observations?  And is it permanent or temporary?

  

Ian – I started collecting in the 60’s when I was stilll in high school and I don’t think much has changed. Brown guns, even if they are right, appreciated little if at all. Sure, inflation has had an impact but the relevancy  of condition and originality in collecting Winchesters has not changed. If collectors want to see appreciation in value they should buy high condition and/or rare guns that are original and correct. There is no shortage of Winchesters – anybody that does not believe me should go to the CGCA show in May. Everyone should spend their hard earned money on what they like but if you want to see some appreciation in the guns you buy, you should chose quality over quantity. And, when the time comes to give up your guns, those with condition and/or rarity will be easy to sell and mediocre guns will be hard to sell. I have always told guys to walk away from brown guns unless they have something about them that makes them very rare. But, most don’t listen because they want to add to their collection and before you know it they have a bunch of guns they can’t get rid of. If you have $25k to spend, buy the best damn gun you can get for $25k. But, most won’t do that – they would rather buy five $5k guns. As we all know, there is great uncertainty in our country right now and the economy may be in for a big slump. But, none of this has much impact on the guys that can afford to buy good guns. Auction prices for good guns are astronomical because there are still lots of guy that can afford the high end guns. My biggest fear is the fakery which seems to be running rampant and getting worse. Every day, collectors with money but inadequate knowledge, are tucking away guns that are not right.

Very interesting.  I’m not sure the bottom tier of Winchesters (let’s call them “uncollectable”) is as self-sustaining as alleged and $1500 USD seems a little high for the upper end of the bracket. Perhaps that minimum price is true for collectible lever action centerfires but our own JWA could testify there are very collectible Winchester rimfires to be had for less. And there are still a few undercollected gun models. 

As you say, the top tier’s pricing  is not affected by economic conditions any more than the ticket of a Picasso or a Ferrari California. When the elephants fight, the grass gets trampled. 

I think there are a couple of underappreciated phenomena that adversely affect the middle tier of “nice but not pristine” Winchesters.

First, there is an increased, legitimate interest in restoring uncollectable Winchesters, particularly those in mechanically safe but cosmetically worn or abused condition. While this may be anathema to the purist collector fraternity, there is a reason why Turnbull Restorations is thriving. And any perusal of the Want To Buy section of the Collector will show there is an uncomfortable amount of demand for vintage barrels and other non-minor parts of certain ages. Where do you think those things are going? 

Second, like it or not, Winchester Guns, shorthand for the line of reissued Winchester lever action classic rifles sold by Browning Arms Company subsidiary of Herstal Group, are very popular and successful, internationally. 

Bottom line, a lot of Winchester admirers like new or high condition firearms but can’t or don’t want to pay three to ten thousand dollars for a decent but scratched up 1873 carbine with a pitted bore. To the dismissive charge they are just ignorant, I would offer that, while they may not know much, they know what they want and money talks. 

The restoration and reproduction businesses offer them an alternative that has some, although I think modest, deflationary effect on middle tier collectable Winchesters. 

That’s what I think, anyway. 

Interesting topic, Ian. Due to fiscal constraints and other less costly areas of interest I am an infrequent player in this price range but I have a case in point that aligns well with your small sample. For the last few years I had a very nice post-war Model 71 Special that under ideal conditions should have brought close to $4000. Admittedly I was using it for eye candy for several shows. At the Cody show last year at least four other 71’s were offered, some were pre-war. Of the ones I saw none were in better condition. Mine came back to Texas with me. I recently sold it at Scott Tarbell’s Durant show for a fair bit under what I feel was market value. I’m not an especially dynamic salesman but I am inclined to agree segments of the market are soft. I think the explanation is one of the simplest but least understood of all business principles, supply and demand. When there are three buyers for five similar rifles the motivated seller will make the sale. The target market for collectable Winchesters in this price range is shrinking and there are plenty of nice offerings out there. Without getting into the subjective quality of these offerings there are simply too few buyers and most are smart enough to recognize a buyers’ market and take advantage of the situation. I’ve heard some savvy collectors repeat the old saying about a rising tide raising all ships but like you I’m not seeing it in the segment you describe. 

Mike

mrcvs said

TR said

mrcvs said

The segment impacted are, I think, most of what we on this forum have.  We strive for rarity and condition, 80% to 95% is what we hope for, anything greater than that is for the big boys.  I think we have decent white collar positions or respectable tradesmen positions.  Those of us being white collar are impacted by less interest by our younger colleagues due to increased urbanization, unfamiliarity with firearms, and an education system that punishes interest in firearms.  And we are the segment of the population that is impacted most by inflation, the stock market, a need to invest in a retirement plan regularly, increasing taxes, college tuition, etc.

Thoughts?  Does this seem to be your observations?  And is it permanent or temporary?

  

 My opinion.

 Our hobby was created by an interest in old guns and gun shows. Over time came large auctions and the internet that made these guns more accessible. Prices will depend on demand, condition, originality, history, and rarity. Rarity can also be condition based on age, survival rate, and number manufactured. The number manufactured and the time in history effects the availability today. 

 If you collect 1894s and other more modern guns they were used in an a period of history that people lived in houses with gun cabinets, survival rate and condition higher. This along with less or lack of cowboy and Indian usage makes for less history. With the internet and auction companies today the collector finds these type of guns for sale everywhere. More for sale price goes down.

 Tulsa is in two weeks, 4200 tables, 11 acres under one roof. I will be there looking for what is rare. Not a soft market for rare. T/R  

With 11 acres of tables, at a show like that, what do you see?

As far as my wish list in Winchesters, it is mighty short right now.  I always want condition, but as to a specific Model, calibre, and configuration, there is nothing specific that comes to mind.  A nice Model 1876 might be nice.  A Model 1894 carbine in .32-40 was at the top of my wish list until fairly recently.  I had one before that was of the condition that I didn’t like—I wanted more condition—but, since then, it’s an uncommon event for one to even show up, let alone in 95 to 100% condition.  And so you have to settle for something without condition, but at least acceptable, or do without.

If you tell me there are 5 or 7 really nice .32-40 Winchester 1894 carbines at Tulsa—I’ll eat my hat!

  

Regarding a pretty nice 1894 carbine in 32-40, did you notice Michael’s (twobit) that just sold for way under expectations on Gunbroker this week?  It was initially offered to WACA members for $6,500.  Perhaps the reason for this posted topic?

https://www.gunbroker.com/item/1093948808

Don

deerhunter said

 

Regarding a pretty nice 1894 carbine in 32-40, did you notice Michael’s (twobit) that just sold for way under expectations on Gunbroker this week?  It was initially offered to WACA members for $6,500.  Perhaps the reason for this posted topic?

https://www.gunbroker.com/item/1093948808

Don

  

I think he offered that at 3,500 originally iirc. I might be wrong. But yes, point made!

TR said
  The old dealers at Tulsa use to say, “if there’s one gun of that type at Tulsa it sells, if there’s two neither sells”. With all these guns for sale on every venue that’s not true now, but betweeners sell slow. Slow is low. 

 Over the last 30 years I have bought most of my guns at Tulsa. I collect Winchester and Colt so I’m looking at a lot of different guns, I keep a open mind and don’t know what I want until I see it and I do see it all. I use to go looking for a specific model but now I’m past that. Most dealers would ask me what I’m looking for so they could find it and sell to me. I’m having a lot more fun with my current attitude.

 The last Tulsa show I came home with a original Colt saa Cavalry model Custer range serial numbered. I didn’t go there looking for it, it found me. Granted I could have bought one at RIA but this was a fraction of the price. That’s why I have only missed one show in the last 30 years. T/R

  

I really wanted to go to Tulsa but my wife’s birthday is that Friday.  I’ve only been once and it took me 11 hours to walk it one time.  And one time is not enough.  I spent 3 days walking.  Like TR I usually don’t know what I want until I see it.  Last time I came home with 3 items I didn’t realize I needed.  I like the higher condition guns but not the 100% ones.  I like spreading my money around.  Like buying 2 instead of just one. The last 5 years I have found some really nice guns for good prices.  The Winchester market is down some.  Us old guys are a dying breed.  And yes, when the market is down I have less than what I want to spend.  As bad as the market is now it has done this at least 3 times in the last 15 years, or maybe less time.  I collect because I like what I collect.  It never was for re sale.  Buy the best you can afford and be happy.

I’ve never made a buy I’ve regretted at a show. I’ve learned the hard way not to make an impulse buy on GB. The Buy it Now button is treacherous.

Not that the items were misrepresented. I was just bored and wanted some action. 

Like the girls who get prettier at closing time, I have once or twice waked up in the morning holding a strange GB invoice.and tried to gnaw my arm off.to get away from it.  

I’ve been following and reading this post with interest, as I can relate, like the others, to the various comments.

I’ve paid up foe something that I wanted and I felt or knew was correct.

Like Burt said earlier, I am more suspicious today, of faked firearms than not! Makes me weary, in more ways than none. We all are aware of the fact that when higher dollar amounts are involved, anything can and will be possible.

Like others I never was one to go to a show and pick something up to sell. Only when I purchased a collection, would I sell the pieces to replace the investment paid, and possibly keep one or two pieces, if possible. Times have changed and those days are far and few between anymore, for many obvious reasons.

Anthony

This is only My opinion and experience; If I’m buying with the intention of resale, I usually try to buy a collection or multiple firearms at once, offering a fair discounted price, leaving some wiggle room for “profit” on the sale. Kinda the same as the auction houses. This practice started for Me kinda by accident a number of years back. A fella had forty some guns , but only 3 that I was really interested in, but He wouldn’t sell them seperate, so I bought the whole works and sold off the ones I wasn’t interested in. I made enough $ on them guns to virtually pay for the ones I wanted to keep. I have bought quite a few collections in Canada and the U.S. over the years, as many as 1200 guns in one collection I bought, and for the most part, have done well on them. I have also been on the flip side of this equasion, where I have paid more than popular market value for a single gun that I just had to have, because of rarity or condition, to put in My rack. It ia very rare to find that single piece at a “bargain” price. Like right now with the difference in the U.S. / Cdn. money it is very expensive for me to buy anything in the U.S., I just bought a couple of high end 1890’s. The purchase price was a little over $9,200.00. By time I get those guns home to Ontario that would have been about $14,000.00, now with 25% tariff being levied, well You do the math. I bought these guns before the tariffs but couldn’t get them imported until after, so now I got $17,500.00 into a couple of guns I know I’ll never get out of so they will stay on My rack probably forever. We are pretty well priced out of the U.S. market as buyers, for now.There are some pieces coming up at the next R.I.A. that I sure would like but I probably won’t even bother bidding because of all that, the last piece I bought at Their sale the hammer price was $5500.00, by time I got that gun home it was well over $12,000.00. So are prices softening a bit I sure do hope so.