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Another interesting Winchester 1886 that sold at auction today relatively cheaply
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November 19, 2023 - 3:30 am
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Yes, it’s a .33 WCF and not an antique, but interesting with the full magazine and rapid tapered barrel, which is unusual.  And a crescent butt is uncommon for a .33 WCF.  And a fair amount of condition as well—by no means a “brown” gun.  $2100 plus buyer’s premium puts it at $2457 plus shipping and FFL fees.  This appears more like a 19th Century Model 1886 than the typical .33 WCF rifles.  1906 production.

https://milestoneauctions.hibid.com/lot/174398856/winchester-model-1886-lightweight-33wcf-rifle?ref=catalog

Maybe the Model 1886 market is softening?

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November 19, 2023 - 4:27 am
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Interesting! A very nice 71 is filling the 1886 slot in my little collection so I hope your analysis is correct. I don’t think this softening will extend to the 45-70 but buyers can hope!

 

Mike

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November 19, 2023 - 5:52 am
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mrcvs said
Yes, it’s a .33 WCF and not an antique, but interesting with the full magazine and rapid tapered barrel, which is unusual.  And a crescent butt is uncommon for a .33 WCF.  

https://milestoneauctions.hibid.com/lot/174398856/winchester-model-1886-lightweight-33wcf-rifle?ref=catalog

Ian,

The barrel on that rifle is the standard (and the only) taper offered for the 33 WCF and it is certainly not “unusual”.  Keep in mind that the people writing the auction descriptions are for the most part quite ignorant about the subject at hand.

The Full length magazine and the crescent butt are most definitely not uncommon on the 33 WCF rifles either.  Currently, 1 of every 5 33 WCF rifles documented in my research survey has a crescent butt.  The article (that I just recently wrote) that will be in the next edition of the WACA Collector magazine should help clear up a number of misconceptions (urban myths) about the statistics for the 33 WCF Model 1886 rifles.

The data below has been documented thus far in the Model 1886 survey;

Butts:

Crescent butts = 217 (19.55%)

Checkered Steel shotgun butts = 104 (9.4%)

Hard Rubber shotgun butts = 776 (69.9%)

Smooth Steel shotgun butts = 7

Solid Red rubber pads = 6

Total = 1,110

Magazines:

1/2 = 817 (71.1%)

2/3 = 28

3/4 = 6

Full = 297 (25.9%)

In summary, 1:5 have a crescent butt, and 1:4 have a Full length magazine tube.

Bert

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November 19, 2023 - 9:21 am
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Bert H. said

mrcvs said

Yes, it’s a .33 WCF and not an antique, but interesting with the full magazine and rapid tapered barrel, which is unusual.  And a crescent butt is uncommon for a .33 WCF.  

https://milestoneauctions.hibid.com/lot/174398856/winchester-model-1886-lightweight-33wcf-rifle?ref=catalog

Ian,

The barrel on that rifle is the standard (and the only) taper offered for the 33 WCF and it is certainly not “unusual”.  Keep in mind that the people writing the auction descriptions are for the most part quite ignorant about the subject at hand.

The Full length magazine and the crescent butt are most definitely not uncommon on the 33 WCF rifles either.  Currently, 1 of every 5 33 WCF rifles documented in my research survey has a crescent butt.  The article (that I just recently wrote) that will be in the next edition of the WACA Collector magazine should help clear up a number of misconceptions (urban myths) about the statistics for the 33 WCF Model 1886 rifles.

The data below has been documented thus far in the Model 1886 survey;

Butts:

Crescent butts = 217 (19.55%)

Checkered Steel shotgun butts = 104 (9.4%)

Hard Rubber shotgun butts = 776 (69.9%)

Smooth Steel shotgun butts = 7

Solid Red rubber pads = 6

Total = 1,110

Magazines:

1/2 = 817 (71.1%)

2/3 = 28

3/4 = 6

Full = 297 (25.9%)

In summary, 1:5 have a crescent butt, and 1:4 have a Full length magazine tube.

Bert  

Thank you for clearing up that misconception.  I just had done a search last evening for completed auctions yesterday and saw this one.  I typically see, or at least think of, a .33 WCF Model 1886 as a rifle with a shotgun butt and half magazine.  Which most are, but at least this one, while not high condition, has a lot of bluing and sold reasonably.  Not seeing, or at least looking for, these with a full magazine, now that you mention it, the barrel would not be extraordinary.

I also would not call this rifle an extra lightweight rifle.

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November 19, 2023 - 1:24 pm
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Bert,

I took statistics a great number of years ago, and so my number crunching is not going so well for me, or maybe it is.  I’m not sure…

If you have 25.9% with a full magazine and 19.55% with a crescent butt, if you multiply the two, you get 5.06%, and this is about the same as 1/4 x 1/5 (25.6% and 19.55%, approximately).  So this suggests that one out of 20 have a crescent butt and a full magazine, which is not rare, uncommon, or unusual, but certainly atypical.

So, let’s see how good my math is or isn’t.  Out of 1,110 in your survey, how many are with a full magazine and crescent butt?  My math suggests this number is 5.06% of 1110, or 56, but I forget how a statistic is not dependent on another one.  For example, it isn’t necessarily so that 1/5 of the rifles with a full magazine have a crescent butt.  That number might be 1/3 for that configuration.

I want to say THANK YOU for presenting facts whereas sometimes I get bogged down in hearsay and a statistically small sample size.

Again, using a small sample size of my observations, it seems that a somewhat unpopular caliber rifle in this condition might have brought at least 3 k not that long ago.  Where it hammered at yesterday with buyer’s premium, but no sales tax at this auction, was about 20% less than recent ones have sold for.  Again, observations and a small sample size but I could be wrong.

I only even looked at this rifle because it was a Model 1886 in the same auction as a late .40-65 lettering with the holes for a sight.

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November 19, 2023 - 3:03 pm
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When the market is in a softening phase, .33’s (unless very high condition or special order features) are an early casualty as far as prices fetched.  Yes, many guys like to shoot them, but that want to pay a very reasonable price. 

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November 19, 2023 - 5:40 pm
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mrcvs said
Bert,

I took statistics a great number of years ago, and so my number crunching is not going so well for me, or maybe it is.  I’m not sure…

If you have 25.9% with a full magazine and 19.55% with a crescent butt, if you multiply the two, you get 5.06%, and this is about the same as 1/4 x 1/5 (25.6% and 19.55%, approximately).  So this suggests that one out of 20 have a crescent butt and a full magazine, which is not rare, uncommon, or unusual, but certainly atypical.

So, let’s see how good my math is or isn’t.  Out of 1,110 in your survey, how many are with a full magazine and crescent butt?  My math suggests this number is 5.06% of 1110, or 56, but I forget how a statistic is not dependent on another one.  For example, it isn’t necessarily so that 1/5 of the rifles with a full magazine have a crescent butt.  That number might be 1/3 for that configuration.

I want to say THANK YOU for presenting facts whereas sometimes I get bogged down in hearsay and a statistically small sample size.

Again, using a small sample size of my observations, it seems that a somewhat unpopular caliber rifle in this condition might have brought at least 3 k not that long ago.  Where it hammered at yesterday with buyer’s premium, but no sales tax at this auction, was about 20% less than recent ones have sold for.  Again, observations and a small sample size but I could be wrong.

I only even looked at this rifle because it was a Model 1886 in the same auction as a late .40-65 lettering with the holes for a sight.

Let me start out by stating this… production of the Model 1886 definitely had some patterns to it.  One of the patterns was the combination of features.  Specifically, when a Crescent butt was ordered, more often than not, a Full length magazine was also ordered.  When a Shotgun butt was ordered, a 1/2 mag was typically ordered with it.

Thus far I have documented (122) 33 WCF rifles with a Crescent butt & Full length mag, which is 11% of the (1,110).

Bert

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November 19, 2023 - 6:00 pm
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Bert H. said

mrcvs said

Bert,

I took statistics a great number of years ago, and so my number crunching is not going so well for me, or maybe it is.  I’m not sure…

If you have 25.9% with a full magazine and 19.55% with a crescent butt, if you multiply the two, you get 5.06%, and this is about the same as 1/4 x 1/5 (25.6% and 19.55%, approximately).  So this suggests that one out of 20 have a crescent butt and a full magazine, which is not rare, uncommon, or unusual, but certainly atypical.

So, let’s see how good my math is or isn’t.  Out of 1,110 in your survey, how many are with a full magazine and crescent butt?  My math suggests this number is 5.06% of 1110, or 56, but I forget how a statistic is not dependent on another one.  For example, it isn’t necessarily so that 1/5 of the rifles with a full magazine have a crescent butt.  That number might be 1/3 for that configuration.

I want to say THANK YOU for presenting facts whereas sometimes I get bogged down in hearsay and a statistically small sample size.

Again, using a small sample size of my observations, it seems that a somewhat unpopular caliber rifle in this condition might have brought at least 3 k not that long ago.  Where it hammered at yesterday with buyer’s premium, but no sales tax at this auction, was about 20% less than recent ones have sold for.  Again, observations and a small sample size but I could be wrong.

I only even looked at this rifle because it was a Model 1886 in the same auction as a late .40-65 lettering with the holes for a sight.

Let me start out by stating this… production of the Model 1886 definitely had some patterns to it.  One of the patterns was the combination of features.  Specifically, when a Crescent butt was ordered, more often than not, a Full length magazine was also ordered.  When a Shotgun butt was ordered, a 1/2 mag was typically ordered with it.

Thus far I have documented (122) 33 WCF rifles with a Crescent butt & Full length mag, which is 11% of the (1,110).

Bert  

Thank you, Bert!  So much for statistics class.  I think I took it in 1989, so it’s been a long time.

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November 19, 2023 - 11:06 pm
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What I find interesting is that it is a solid frame. most of the 33wcf I encounter are TD. Not that this means much. I am sure I will be set straight here shortly but it is a gun I am lacking. 

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November 20, 2023 - 1:03 am
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oldcrankyyankee said
What I find interesting is that it is a solid frame. most of the 33wcf I encounter are TD. Not that this means much. I am sure I will be set straight here shortly but it is a gun I am lacking. 

  

Surveyed 33 WCF rifle frame types;

Solid Frame = 452 (39.2%)

Take Down = 700 (60.8%)

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November 20, 2023 - 4:41 am
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I’m looking forward to your 1886 article, Bert. Your definitions of rare, unusual and scarce may differ from some of us but your article with solid stats from research and surveys will provide excellent reference material on the subject. The auction trends of the 1886 are interesting, too. What’s your take on the cited auction results? Trend or anomaly?

 

Mike

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November 20, 2023 - 11:48 am
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I agree this rifle went relatively cheap. I can see the $3500 estimate. 33’s have generally been well used from the several I’ve owned and seen. I would be a happy buyer on this one at the hammer price it went for. 

 Rick C 

   

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November 20, 2023 - 12:32 pm
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RickC said
I agree this rifle went relatively cheap. I can see the $3500 estimate. 33’s have generally been well used from the several I’ve owned and seen. I would be a happy buyer on this one at the hammer price it went for.   

Even at the peak, whenever that might have been, and I’m making the assumption that this was some time in the past, be it six months or a year ago, or even some time in the depths of Covid, I don’t think this was a $3500 rifle.  Even if it was a $3500 rifle now, the bid on it could not be $3500 as buyer’s premium alone makes it nearly a $4100 rifke, even before any other fees are added in, such as shipping and FFL fees.

Maybe others think otherwise?

I’m thinking this was a $3000 rifle at its peak, possibly $3250 and my observation that the total cost of this rifle being $2500 give or take (hammer price plus buyer’s premium puts it at $2457) suggests that it sold at a 20 to 30% discount from its peak.

Now, is this an outlier, a trend, or a snapshot in time along a further slide?

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November 20, 2023 - 12:58 pm
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mrcvs said

RickC said

I agree this rifle went relatively cheap. I can see the $3500 estimate. 33’s have generally been well used from the several I’ve owned and seen. I would be a happy buyer on this one at the hammer price it went for.   

I’m thinking this was a $3000 rifle at its peak, possibly $3250 and my observation that the total cost of this rifle being $2500 give or take (hammer price plus buyer’s premium puts it at $2457) suggests that it sold at a 20 to 30% discount from its peak.

Now, is this an outlier, a trend, or a snapshot in time along a further slide?

  

Your peak price of $3250 is close enough to my $3500, I would’ve still been a buyer. I discussed this one last evening with a couple other collectors who agreed $3500 is not unreasonable. Easier to say when the auction is over. ??

 Rick C 

   

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November 20, 2023 - 6:04 pm
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I Apologize for going slightly off track on the 33, but where would an 1886 in 40-82 , made in 1889 be if it was reblued  ( yes , over a case color ) and varnished. Very Good condition. OBFM

What price goes on that at a show or auction ?  

I guess the come back will be a shooter or a parts gun.

Bill

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November 20, 2023 - 6:25 pm
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Blueliner said
I Apologize for going slightly off track on the 33, but where would an 1886 in 40-82 , made in 1889 be if it was reblued  ( yes , over a case color ) and varnished. Very Good condition. OBFM

What price goes on that at a show or auction ?  

I guess the come back will be a shooter or a parts gun.

Bill

Bill,

You have described a “shooter” grade rifle.  I suspect that the best you should expect for it is $1,500.  The 40-82 WCF caliber/cartridge that it is chambered for is also a negative issue for a refinished Model 1886.

Bert

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November 20, 2023 - 10:51 pm
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It’s my opinion that auction prices for winchester and marlin lever guns are NUTZ at the moment. I’m taking a siesta on buying for a while.

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November 20, 2023 - 11:20 pm
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Brooksy said
It’s my opinion that auction prices for winchester and marlin lever guns are NUTZ at the moment. I’m taking a siesta on buying for a while. 

Well, the reverse is what inspired this post.  My observations are that prices seem to have backed off a fair amount, and now might be the time to buy if so inclined.  Or, maybe you are correct, and another 20 to 30% slide is in order?  If so, then I would definitely acquire a few nice Model 1886s at that time.

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November 21, 2023 - 1:47 am
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I got this one a little while ago, I thought it was reasonable plus I liked it. I don’t believe the extra barrel letters but it’s there and matches well20231120_203442.jpgImage Enlarger20231120_203508.jpgImage Enlarger20231120_204026.jpgImage Enlarger20231120_204121.jpgImage Enlarger20231120_204140.jpgImage Enlarger I got the wrong tag on the gun , the Proper ser# is139158, Nov. 1 , 1906, 45-70 , 22″, extra light, takedown, plain, pistol grip, checkered, 1/2 mag, shotgun, rubber butt order#74772

W.A.C.A. life member, Marlin Collectors Assn. charter and life member, C,S.S.A. member and general gun nut.

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November 21, 2023 - 2:20 pm
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I am very much looking forward to Bert’s next article on the 33 WCF. Thank you, Bert, for the truly outstanding articles you have been producing. I am looking forward to the day when all those articles are assembled into one fantastic book.

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