Kirk-

In my humble opinion I feel the 4th edition Red Book is probably the best hard copy tool we have given today’s market conditions. I’ve found prices vary from region to region and often from year to year. I find it invaluable for identifying models and variations as well as features to look for. In some cases the prices printed may seem high but in most cases I feel they are somewhat low on the guns I’ve purchased recently. A better evaluation may be obtained by examining recent sales from online auction sites but realistically you’d need to check dozens of examples to come up with a useful number. To complicate things some folks find a Winchester they really like and simply pay whatever it takes to get it. If you like it, buy it. If you think you’ll find a better one for less money, pass.

Mike

Chuck said   I have at least 4 different books on gun values.  Most of these are many years old.  The data about the guns is still the same but the prices are not. 
  

I still use my ’78 1st ed Flayderman’s for that purpose–a quick reference for dates of mfg., model changes, & the like, esp. for guns I’m not familiar with.  I’ve thumbed its pages thousands of times but it’s still in very good cond.   In the first year of its publication, myself & all the other SS collectors I knew laughed at his values, because they were so absurdly low; but that didn’t matter because all serious collectors knew what the current gun-show values were.  My Gun Traders Guide for guns not old enough to be included in Flayderman is mid-’80s, but that doesn’t matter either because I never bought it to use as an actual price guide. 

I have many, “pricing guides” that I value substantially.  I bought my first copy of Flayderman’s Guide in my late teens.  Many of these guides are filled with great information.  But the pricing?  That’s more problematic.  I don’t place much blame on the Guides for listing values that someone, somewhere feels is off.  I often take great exception to the values I see listed.  A common reflection I have is, “I’d buy one of those in a heartbeat for that amount.”

There are so many factors in gun values.  Market volatility, regional factors and I think most significantly, variability among buyers.  I place buyers in two basic categories:  educated vs. not educated and high roller vs. non-high roller.  Particularly in auctions, gun values are often determined by people who have inadequate knowledge of what they’re doing and/or people who have enough money that spending too much for something is not a big deal.  Having those individuals determine prices is a frustration most here have experienced.  

When it comes to updating pricing guides, the seemingly simple task at hand is to find examples of what that specific piece has sold for recently.  But where?  Auction houses, internet auction, dealer catalogs, perusing asking prices on gun show tables?  And if you use internet auctions as a guide, there’s the shill bidder factor.  Well… shill bidding is not confined to just internet auctions either.  

I am sometimes asked what I think something will sell for – and what venue might be considered.  This is an amazingly complex question.  I could write pages about all the rabbit holes involved.  But… I think I’ll hold off and just stand on the edge of that rabbit hole rather than jump in

High roller or not everyone needs to be educated.  Buy the price guides for the other info, not necessarily the pricing.  Pricing does let you know which model or version is worth more.  Lack of or presence of money does not ever equate to common sense.

86Win said
 I no longer have faith in Gun Broker or many other auction sites as the high rollers lurk there. Don

  

Don’t think many of the real high-rollers waste their time on GB–they merely give their want-lists to their favorite big-time dealers & let them do the finding.  Major auctions like Rock Island may be worth their personal involvement, however.

But you’re certainly right that GB prices are always high, which I attribute to ignorant & greedy yuppies who’ve probably never been to a gun show.