Log In
Members
Home
Add Reply
Add Topic
With regards to Winchesters, many sold for considerably less than the low end estimate. Granted, some estimates were “ambitious” but most of the low end estimates were not too far off the mark. Is this the beginning of a lack of competing grey haired bidders and/or the result of successful bids by a younger crowd with shallower pockets?
November 7, 2015
Offline
I’ve been hearing there are certainly weak spots in the Winchester market, notably 94’s. Subject came up often at the recent TGCA show. I’m wondering if the Gen X crowd will pick up where the Boomers leave off.
Mike
Online
I wonder if the buyers and sellers premiums have anything to do with this? If you charge the buyer 15-20%, then the seller 15%, maybe Proxy Bid 3%, maybe credit card 3%, maybe sales tax. YOU ARE TALKING REAL MONEY! When the seller only gets 60% of what it cost the buyer, you will have fewer buyers. When a $10,000 gun sells and the seller gets $6,000, you have higher reserves. These auction companies have reserves on most high dollar guns. Did these Winchester’s that went cheap actually sell? T/R
Even accounting for buyer’s and other premiums, prices attained were remarkably weak.
I’m 58 and have yet to meet ANY hunter, shooter, collector my age or younger that gives 2 cents about Winchesters. I unfortunately think Winchester as an investment is a losing proposition. Of course, there are true “collectors” out there for now, but not enough young blood to keep the hobby viable through the next 10 – 20 years. If you like it buy it, but not as an investment IMHO.
Good question and some great thoughts.
Buyer and seller premiums have always been a big deal to me since I would have to pick and choose which one(s) I’d like to bid on and then follow up over the phone, plus the transfer and state tax – BOO! Way too much of my time has been put in to most any purchase I have ever made. OTOH, it’s been fun and a big part of my retirement life…wish I had started when I was younger, but now I’m just getting tired and do not devote the enormous amount it takes to find and purchase just one piece.
James
Hopefully Winchesters don’t go the way of collectible cars……Especially for younger collectors like myself.
It is really discouraging when a decent shooter grade winchester commands almost 2k. Another discouraging thing about winchesters is that really none of the dealers at shows want to negotiate. Now, don’t get me wrong, i understand low ball offers but if you have a 5k gun and wont negotiate to 4500 or hell 4800…..That turns young starting collectors off.
This may sound selfish, but i do hope the prices come down so younger collectors like myself can enjoy the hobby and acquire nicer guns. You old grey beards have had your fun with these beautiful works of art. Start sharing!
Rant over!
Manuel,
I think what is happening with the young collectors at the gun shows with regard to the sticker price is that they don’t know they are expected to negotiate the deal. They are brought up with the online practice of search the internet for the cheapest deal. The old time dealer sees the new kids walking by and looking at the price tag first and then they keep shopping for the cheapest one. They don’t always ask for their best price. They will come back once they find out its the cheapest. This has forced the sellers to mark their guns down to their bottom dollar and now they can’t negotiate any lower. The old timers will always ask for your best price.
Bob
WACA Life Member--- NRA Life Member---- Cody Firearms member since 1991 Researching the Winchester 1873's
Email: [email protected]
mrcvs said
With regards to Winchesters, many sold for considerably less than the low end estimate. Granted, some estimates were “ambitious” but most of the low end estimates were not too far off the mark. Is this the beginning of a lack of competing grey haired bidders and/or the result of successful bids by a younger crowd with shallower pockets?
I believe that the prices have been falling the last few years because the older collectors are dying off way faster than younger buyers are entering the market for this period of guns. Fact of collecting. Look at what has happened in the past. Flintlocks and percussion guns were highly in demand 25 years ago then the cartridge guns sort of took over. Premium guns have retained more value than the lower end guns.
This is the time to buy for collectors but not so much for dealers.
For the last twenty some years I’ve been going to Tulsa twice a year, next week is no different. I drive 12hrs with two other collectors, never turn on the radio, just talk guns. We walk around 4200 tables full of guns. We buy, sell, trade, and talk our hobby, sound like fun, it is. I see guns sell, I get a handle on gun values. Gun Show weekend allows you to share your hobby with like minded individuals in a social setting. More quality Gun Shows like Tulsa is the key to the continuation of the hobby. I get the fact you don’t have time, but I make time twice a year. I always come home gun rich and money poor. T/R
Guys
You need to reminder that a gallon of gas was around 55 cents in 1975.
Walter
November 7, 2015
Offline
On the subject of auction fees I feel they may be at least partially justified by the huge marketing costs incurred by the auction houses. I enjoy seeing their displays at all the major shows but I can only imagine what it costs to be there. I think a truly unusual gun is best marketed by a big auction house as they generally take very good photos and advertise extensively. But I agree, that’s a big chunk of the sales price!
I’ve been aware of the advancing age of serious collectors since I started seriously pursuing Winchesters a few years ago. Like Foxfire I seem to be at the younger end of the bunch at 58. I’ve purchased so many Winchesters recently sold by estates that I’ve come to call my favorite source “the orphanage”. I think sticker shock has a bit to do with declining sales. Younger folks will see two similar rifles on different tables with widely differing prices and not stop to understand the differences, will only see the prices.
Mike
wallyb said
GuysYou need to reminder that a gallon of gas was around 55 cents in 1975.
Walter
In 1975 I got paid $3.75 a hour, a pack of cigarettes was 50 cents, my rent was $85 a month, and my car got 13 mpg. At the gun show you do not pay a buyers or sellers fee. Sell a gun for $10,000 and go home with $10,000 and buyer does not pay $12,000. I can afford to go to a large, good, national show but not a small show. Most of the deals are on setup day, I get there early and look for the old guys gun’s. The price tag is meaningless, if it says P.O.R., ask. Many prices are inflated for trades, a polite conversation can save you a lot of money. The problem with the gun show is you have to know what your looking at, have a knowledgeable friend. T/R
TR said
wallyb said
GuysYou need to reminder that a gallon of gas was around 55 cents in 1975.
Walter
In 1975 I got paid $3.75 a hour, a pack of cigarettes was 50 cents, my rent was $85 a month, and my car got 13 mpg. At the gun show you do not pay a buyers or sellers fee. Sell a gun for $10,000 and go home with $10,000 and buyer does not pay $12,000. I can afford to go to a large, good, national show but not a small show. Most of the deals are on setup day, I get there early and look for the old guys gun’s. The price tag is meaningless, if it says P.O.R., ask. Many prices are inflated for trades, a polite conversation can save you a lot of money. The problem with the gun show is you have to know what your looking at, have a knowledgeable friend. T/R
So, what’s a better deal? The close to retail price at a gun show or the potential to purchase a firearm for much, much less at auction, even accounting for hefty buyer’s premiums?
Having said that, at this particular auction, and several others, the opening bid is generally half the low end pre auction estimate. Yesterday, MANY of these lots, Winchester or otherwise, were noted to sell at or not much higher than the opening bid. Today, MANY of these lots were noted as a PASS. IMHO, I have always objected to a minimum opening bid, but such it is. However, it appears that, in this case, the auction house is approaching the seller and asking if they will accept a bid at half the low end estimate or not. It sure seems like it! If this is the case, it is deeply disturbing and takes the fun out of it.
November 7, 2015
Offline
I know at some antique car auctions the auctioneer will sometimes disclose the reserve amount if the bidding gets close. I’ve seen it where this helps make a sale. I’ve been known to lift my reserve but sometimes feel the auctioneers quit working the bidders after I do. No idea if this is a workable strategy with firearms. Sometimes the right buyers aren’t there. At this point auctions are a learning tool and entertainment for me, I suspect others as well. After our recent experience with Morphy I’m seriously considering listing a few unusual items with them but I’ll probably wait until the market improves a bit.
Mike
mrcvs said
So, what’s a better deal? The close to retail price at a gun show or the potential to purchase a firearm for much, much less at auction, even accounting for hefty buyer’s premiums?
Having said that, at this particular auction, and several others, the opening bid is generally half the low end pre auction estimate. Yesterday, MANY of these lots, Winchester or otherwise, were noted to sell at or not much higher than the opening bid. Today, MANY of these lots were noted as a PASS. IMHO, I have always objected to a minimum opening bid, but such it is. However, it appears that, in this case, the auction house is approaching the seller and asking if they will accept a bid at half the low end estimate or not. It sure seems like it! If this is the case, it is deeply disturbing and takes the fun out of it.
By having a minimum opening bid the auction house is saving time. When the item has a reserve higher than the minimum opening bid it doesn’t make sense to waste the time if no one will start at the minimum and then move toward the reserve. As far as where to buy I buy where I get the best deal, assuming the guns are the same condition. Most of the time I would prefer to buy at a gun show where I can barter directly with the owner.
1 Guest(s)
