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Am I out of touch with how, “soft” the market is?
https://www.gunbroker.com/item/854851552
Here we have one of the more popular Winchesters out there (the M1886) in one of the most desirable chamberings (.45-90) in the most desirable configuration (octagon barrel, full magazine, cresent butt). It is pre-1899 so has antique status. While it is not a safe queen, it is unmolested. Barrel blue is nice, screws are nice. It’s shows some use but not abuse. I think it has desirable character. It has the Sheard stampings and sight (a Montana connection). The seller has set a fixed price so it’s not one of these auctions where you don’t know what the reserve is. He also is willing to consider offers.
What do others think this rifle should sell for?
In my opinion, it appears to be an honest gray gun, but overpriced by $700 to $1000. I’ve had many Sheard, Livingston marked Winchesters over the years. Although he was a famous gunsmith/sight maker, guns with his mark don’t bring high premiums.
win4575 said
In my opinion, it appears to be an honest gray gun, but overpriced by $700 to $1000. I’ve had many Sheard, Livingston marked Winchesters over the years. Although he was a famous gunsmith/sight maker, guns with his mark don’t bring high premiums.
I second that opinion. T/R
A Winchester 1886, but of standard model configuration, a “grey gun”, antique, with no special order features. In today’s depressed market for these, unfortunately, it’s little more than a $2000 gun. I think it would struggle to bring $2250 to $2500.
I just saw a Winchester 1894 at a gun show this morning, .25-35 WCF, standard rifle, round barrel, not take down, full magazine, Crescent butt, Dec 1907 production, at least 90%, if not considerably better. And there it sits for $2500. Years ago, this would have been long gone in a less common calibre such as this.
I have an 1886 in .45-70 with the full oct and mag. It has some interesting Alaska history. It’s in way better shape than this one. If I can’t get 5K for it, I’ll just keep it till I croak. I also have a 94 rb fm in .23-35 built in 95 that is in very good condition. I won’t give that one away either.
Looks like we better bring some new blood into the collecting game or we’ll be stuck with our favorites.
Shoot low boys. They're riding Shetland Ponies.
Old Logger said
I have an 1886 in .45-70 with the full oct and mag. It has some interesting Alaska history. It’s in way better shape than this one. If I can’t get 5K for it, I’ll just keep it till I croak. I also have a 94 rb fm in .23-35 built in 95 that is in very good condition. I won’t give that one away either.Looks like we better bring some new blood into the collecting game or we’ll be stuck with our favorites.
I’m appreciating all the opinions. When it comes to collecting, there’s a lot of knowledge that I’ve gained over the years. Much of it remains relevant. However, the knowledge I have of what Winchesters, “used” to be worth, is no longer relevant. In fact, I’m finding it a detriment.
The rifle in question is more of an entry level collector piece. Given there are darn view entry level collectors these days, it makes sense the market for this rifle would be suppressed. Old Logger is correct – we’ve got to get some new blood into this collecting game.
I believe there are a number of factors at play here.The prices of Winchesters have gone very high in recent years.This has driven all but the more well heeled or hard core collector away.Younger collectors either go into something else or the lower cost post 64 Winchesters, that they can afford.That is one reason why the post 64 Model 94 carbines ,that most of us old fellows know are not very good, are rising in price at the present time,while the older Winchesters are in a soft market.
Also the economy is not as strong as it once was and that coupled, with a much higher cost for the staples of life,has caused many to have less extra money in their pockets to buy extras with.
Just my thoughts on the matter.
28 gauge said
I believe there are a number of factors at play here.The prices of Winchesters have gone very high in recent years.This has driven all but the more well heeled or hard core collector away.Younger collectors either go into something else or the lower cost post 64 Winchesters, that they can afford.That is one reason why the post 64 Model 94 carbines ,that most of us old fellows know are not very good, are rising in price at the present time,while the older Winchesters are in a soft market.
Also the economy is not as strong as it once was and that coupled, with a much higher cost for the staples of life,has caused many to have less extra money in their pockets to buy extras with.
Just my thoughts on the matter.
As far as collecting post 64 Winchesters, it’s my opinion that the 9422’s are some of the better post 64’s to buy. You can still find new in the box examples for a decent price.
November 7, 2015
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It’s quite possible this rifle is a good example of the state of that sector of the market. In fact, it appears at least a couple of Sheard fans are driving the price up. Personally I think it’s underpriced (probably wrong) but I’m trying to avoid grey guns as they seem to be especially sluggish and in good supply. I’d love to have the gun as a “shooter” but I have too much capital and safe space tied up in shooters already.
Mike
TXGunNut said
It’s quite possible this rifle is a good example of the state of that sector of the market. In fact, it appears at least a couple of Sheard fans are driving the price up. Personally I think it’s underpriced (probably wrong) but I’m trying to avoid grey guns as they seem to be especially sluggish and in good supply. I’d love to have the gun as a “shooter” but I have too much capital and safe space tied up in shooters already.
Mike
Just for clarification, there are no bids on this rifle. This $3250.00 is the buy-it-now price. No one has gone for it yet.
I know several have referred to it as a grey gun. I agree, but I would also add that 50% of the rifle is not grey – as the barrel and magazine tube blue is blue. I like the character of the rifle. I accept what others are saying – it is overpriced for, “today’s market.”
28 gauge said
I believe there are a number of factors at play here.The prices of Winchesters have gone very high in recent years.This has driven all but the more well heeled or hard core collector away.Younger collectors either go into something else or the lower cost post 64 Winchesters, that they can afford.That is one reason why the post 64 Model 94 carbines ,that most of us old fellows know are not very good, are rising in price at the present time,while the older Winchesters are in a soft market.
Also the economy is not as strong as it once was and that coupled, with a much higher cost for the staples of life,has caused many to have less extra money in their pockets to buy extras with.
Just my thoughts on the matter.
A bunch of years ago, my brother and I decided to start looking at stuff besides pre war Winchesters. The Winchester prices were getting high enough that it seemed they were harder to sell. We could buy Marlins and Savages for less money, and so we could sell them at a more affordable price when the time came to part with them, while many of the Winchesters sat on the table untouched. That is likely why there is interest in the later Winchesters. Not everyone wants to shell out thousands for one rifle.
Shoot low boys. They're riding Shetland Ponies.
My initial reaction was it is $1,000 – $1,200 over priced. The grey receiver kills it for me. Not impressed (because I’m not familiar) with the Sheard designation as well. Was that aftermarket??
Old Logger said
A bunch of years ago, my brother and I decided to start looking at stuff besides pre war Winchesters. The Winchester prices were getting high enough that it seemed they were harder to sell. We could buy Marlins and Savages for less money, and so we could sell them at a more affordable price when the time came to part with them, while many of the Winchesters sat on the table untouched. That is likely why there is interest in the later Winchesters. Not everyone wants to shell out thousands for one rifle.
I think that also applies to the collectible 22 caliber rifles (Winchester as well as other manufacturers) that saw a large price increases starting about 8-10 years ago. At that time they were more affordable to folks who couldnt throw down a thousand or two for a nice 1894 or the like. But that also coincides with the time frame where there was a huge run on 22 caliber cartridges.
1892takedown @sbcglobal.net ......NRA Endowment Life Member.....WACA Member
"God is great.....beer is good.....and people are crazy"... Billy Currington
1892takedown said
I think that also applies to the collectible 22 caliber rifles (Winchester as well as other manufacturers) that saw a large price increases starting about 8-10 years ago. At that time they were more affordable to folks who couldnt throw down a thousand or two for a nice 1894 or the like. But that also coincides with the time frame where there was a huge run on 22 caliber cartridges.
The increases going on at that time with the higher condition case colored 1890s/90s really took off. I’m still trying to get a handle on the second model blued ones, so I’ll be watching those in the big auction houses very closely this year.
I’m not as old as many on this forum, but still old enough to remember when a good Model 1890 was still not much more than a dime a dozen. Maybe not that cheap, but I think a few hundred bucks would do it. However, at that time, money was scarce and I was saving for a few good Model 1886s, all of which I still have.
However, the rapid increase and my recollection of what I could have had for a pittance means I have yet to own one.
If this downturn continues to accelerate, in time, I might just be able to have that Model 1890 for little more than a few hundred dollars.
The M1886 .45-90 in question, just sold for $3050. Encouraging. My comment is there is often a disparity in the, “market.” There is the gunshow market and the internet market. So, “today’s market” might be too generic a term.
steve004 said
The M1886 .45-90 in question, just sold for $3050. Encouraging. My comment is there is often a disparity in the, “market.” There is the gunshow market and the internet market. So, “today’s market” might be too generic a term.
Indeed, and while the market might be soft, Steve, I am not at all surprised that it sold for 3,000+.
James
One more thing to keep in mind regarding this 1886 on GB: it was being sold “AS IS – No refund or exchange.” Whenever I see that on an internet auction, it puts a bad taste in my mouth. I avoid those and move on. Pretty foolish for any buyer to commit to ownership without the chance for an in-hand inspection and no chance to return if unhappy. It tells me the seller is not willing to stand behind the item he is selling, so why the risk? In my opinion, that seller is losing a good portion of potential bidders because of this. Just my opinion.
Don
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