Log In
Members
Home
Add Reply
Add Topic
Offline
I watched the auction and Winchester antique levers were soft unless they were rare or mint. Hardware store Winchesters went cheap even medium grade deluxes, if this is the new norm it’s a lot better format to buy in. Quite a few bargains were sold to Proxy Bid buyers. I phone bid on three guns, the two that I like best someone liked better. I new the guns I bid on so it was strictly price point and they sold for what my late friend paid in the 1990s. I’m glad I’m a collector not a investor. T/R
My observations differ from yours. While I truly believe that the Winchester lever market has softened, in this case, it appears most Winchester lots in this auction, if they sold, brought soundly within the pre auction estimate range and a few lots exceeded the high end estimate soundly
If a lot sold and did not reach the pre auction estimate range, the lot usually did not sell for much below the low end estimate.
However, it cannot be denied that a substantial number of Winchester lots did not sell, which likely means that the consignors are aware the market has softened and have, therefore, placed a reserve at the low end estimate, or not much below it.
My observations came from a different point of view, that of my late friends collection. I was there when he bought the guns in the 90s, I knew what he paid, I knew the guns, and now I know what his heirs will receive for each gun after auction fees. Most of his guns were considered investment grade when he bought them, his guns that sold in this auction indicate to me that he had a expensive hobby. He was a collector and enjoyed them, kept his guns until his death. T/R
tr, mrcvs, and others,
I tend to believe the pricing at RIA will show a general and continuing softening of the market on regular rifles that many of us collectors would purchase or already own. I have advanced to the point I am trying to improve on condition, and the high condition rifles seemed to sell at high prices, especially if I was interested in bidding! Reality is that the prices realized, which will undoubtedly soon be available on line, will include the 15% buyer’s premium and thus many that did not seem to meet the bottom figure for the RIA estimates will then be in the range of the estimates. Now, did all sell in reality? That, too, will be discovered. If I may cite but one example, tho, and relying on a memory that seems to not always agree with printed facts, there was an early second model deluxe 1873 with vivid case colors, round barrel, very nice wood, etc. IF I recall correctly the estimated pricing was $85,000 to $125,000. Might be off on that. As I recall, it opened at $60,000, but I don’t recall if that was its hammer price or if it advanced. In my humble opinion, the estimated value was overly high, but then the auctions tend to set the bar on going prices. No doubt others who were there or who watched can cite individual examples that can show any point of view they wish, so it needs to be an overall interpretation, and I think most will agree the standard rifle in good to very good condition is dropping in value. The very rare and highest grades are in a class of their own and seemingly still relatively immune to the loss of values. The one serious question in my mind is whether we can now truly trust determining if a rifle has been very skillfully redone to appear correct. Seems way too many are crossing the auctions with case colors with the reds and yellows still in them, blue that is flawless or nearly so and not aged, etc. The old techniques I used to think that showed a refinish seem to have been circumvented by the truly skilled craftsmen of today. Please go on if you think this rant is unwarranted.
Tim
Tim, The prices realized are posted. I think it’s the gun you refer to, lot 64, indicates a sale at $69,000 price realized. Estimate was $85,000 to 120,000. I agree that the estimate was high and the proof is it didn’t sell in the estimate range. On this gun the seller kept a little over $50,000 on a gun that the auction company sold for $69,000 price realized and told everyone it was worth $85-120k. The auction company needs these fees to stay in business and provide the service, they can’t be right all the time. My point is it’s hard to call this gun an investment unless the seller paid less than $50,000 in the first place. You have to be a collector and enjoy owning it. T/R
All restored guns to date can be confirmed as restored with a hands on inspection by the top collectors in the field.
CJS57 said
All restored guns to date can be confirmed as restored with a hands on inspection by the top collectors in the field.
Well said, and anyone can learn to tell. All that’s required is a open mind, bright lights, and someone to teach you. The more guns you handle under the supervision of that mentor the closer you get to that level. Until then you have to get help or be disappointed. A lot of new collectors give up after being the victim of miss represented guns, sad. T/R
Also, a magnifying glass or loupe can be incredibly helpful. I’ve prevented many a costly error because of it.
In discussion with others on this forum, my statement, above, is generally correct. Many guns in the auction did meet pre auction estimates, but the pre auction estimate range has been lowered to reflect a softening market. Some high end guns have lofty pre auction estimates, and, up until recently, these would have been achieved, at least at the low end. Failure for this to be achieved by the stellar Winchesters suggests the high end Winchesters, which seemed to be immune from the softening market, aren’t infallible any more, either.
Good subject. I’d like opinions from you folks on the nice assembly and sale of 1890s, if and when anyone has the time and interest to do so.
Thanks,
James
TR said
Well said, and anyone can learn to tell. All that’s required is a open mind, bright lights, and someone to teach you. The more guns you handle under the supervision of that mentor the closer you get to that level. Until then you have to get help or be disappointed. A lot of new collectors give up after being the victim of miss represented guns, sad. T/R
I find inadequate lighting at shows can make it difficult to properly inspect Winchesters. Would be nice if dealers/table holders had magnifying lights such as the below attached to their tables.
Winchester Model 1873 44-40 circa 1886
Cheap LED lights available these days at every check out counter at every hardware store are a must any time you are looking at guns.
Bob
WACA Life Member--- NRA Life Member---- Cody Firearms member since 1991 Researching the Winchester 1873's
Email: [email protected]
1873man said
Cheap LED lights available these days at every check out counter at every hardware store are a must any time you are looking at guns.Bob
True, and of course I have/use lights, lighted loops however always feel a little strange pulling out a flashlight.
If I were a dealer/table holder and expecting collectors to pay upwards of $10k>$20k for a Winchester I’d provide a good magnifying light at my table.
But then of course you’d have to carry inventory that would hold up the that close scrutiny.
Winchester Model 1873 44-40 circa 1886
Kevin,
Its very common now at gun shows. At Tulsa I saw big name dealers pull out a light and go over other guys guns. Many table holder do have a light if you don’t have one but they don’t always have it setting out. I have seen some with the light loop. I have had dealers with high dollar guns get out their light to show me the finish of their gun. If a table holder gets upset you looked at his gun with a light its cause he knows you will find the flaw.
Bob
WACA Life Member--- NRA Life Member---- Cody Firearms member since 1991 Researching the Winchester 1873's
Email: [email protected]
1 Guest(s)
