November 7, 2015

I think of the high condition guns as high risk in today’s environment. If I had that kind of funds I’d rather spread out my investment on several “betweeners”. Back to TR’s question, did this auction indicate the state of the market as a whole or did it attract mainly high-end buyers with little response for the “betweeners”?
Mike
TR said
mrcvs, There are high condition guns and low condition guns with “betweeners” in between. I can no longer afford the high condition but I can afford more “betweeners”. Good point. T/R
When you think about it, this reflects the current stratification of wealth in this country. The 1% are getting ever wealthier. They have more and more disposable income. If they want something, it doesn’t really matter what it cost, just as long as they have it. As they become wealthier and wealthier, the objects they desire become more and more valuable. These folks collect the rare, minty and unusual. This is independent of the issue with grey haired folks only collecting antique firearms. Some folks who are young and very wealthy collect these not as a “gun” but as a “work of art”.
The “betweeners” are the firearms for the middle class, albeit often an upper middle class. As inflation erodes their buying power, their wages have remained flat over more than a generation now, and as the middle class is slowly shrinking, there are less folks with less disposable income to buy the “betweeners”. Simple supply and demand suggests that these type of firearms might decline in value. This doesn’t even account for the fact that grey haired folks collect antique firearms and younger folks just aren’t all that interested.
The poor in this country, while increasing in ranks, have virtually no disposable income. If they even purchase a firearm, they are not true collectors. They can only consider guns with problems and issues. These don’t ever, and all never, appreciate. Sometimes their best fate is to be parted out.
Think about it!
mrcvs, In the past when the minty guns went up they pulled the lower condition guns up with them. I’m not sure that will take place this time, maybe the value gap is getting wider. The 600k 66 is a “work of art” and probably not a good example of minty. Your points are right on. T/R
I wasn’t necessarily referring to high end engraved out of this world guns selling for 500 or 600-k as an indicator to the market. What I’m seeing is the market for extremely high condition Winchester’s has started to climb upward. This will naturally bring the so called betweener’s up also. This particular sale had a lot attention and double the amount of folks in attendance and more phone bidders than I’ve ever seen at a Julia’s auction. This could be part of the reason or maybe people are just feeling better about the US economy and are spending accordingly.
started47 said
I wasn’t necessarily referring to high end engraved out of this world guns selling for 500 or 600-k as an indicator to the market. What I’m seeing is the market for extremely high condition Winchester’s has started to climb upward. This will naturally bring the so called betweener’s up also. This particular sale had a lot attention and double the amount of folks in attendance and more phone bidders than I’ve ever seen at a Julia’s auction. This could be part of the reason or maybe people are just feeling better about the US economy and are spending accordingly.
The US economy is doing better, but could a lot of this extra attention and attendance have been simply the Bentley collection bringing more people out as well? Opportunities to see guns like this or have a chance to maybe own one, are often once in a lifetime events for most of us. I have not participated in Julia’s in years, but would have this time around had I not another little one on the way to spend all my Winchester money on.
started47 said
This will naturally bring the so called betweener’s up also.
This will also increase the tomfoolery and monkeying with the betweeners, not to mention some of the high end stuff. When there’s more money involved, the scam artists, liars, thieves, and dishonest folks quickly raise their ugly heads.
I’ve had a chance to take a closer look at Ray’s collection this week (Julia auction). It was particularly interesting as the auction is over and the hammer prices could be viewed. What a collection he had! And this is just the first of three installments they will be selling? Not only Winchesters but Colts, Marlins, trophy cups, cartridge boards and boxes, saddles, knives and on and on. Simply amazing. The fancy Henry’s and early Winchester rifles were my favorites. Some of those engraved 66’s and 73’s… just outstanding. However, to be honestly self-reflective, I’m not completely envious. If I had items of that magnitude, I worry they would own me vs. me owning them. I think as we all know, there is much enjoyment and satisfaction to be found in owning the plain pieces too.
I examined the Greek 66 in detail in Vegas before the auction, and it was hands down the finest 66 I’ve ever handled and seen! I believe it was the class of the collection. Documented back to the 50s and in screaming condition! The rifle really is high art and craftsmanship to the highest level. The Greek 66 and the 22 with the squirrel were my favorite 2. Just my .02.
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