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From everything I’ve read on the model 64. A 25-35 caliber is rare, a "carbine" version is more rare, and a "deer rifle" (deluxe) carbine version would be very rare. This pre-war gun is listed on GI, not great shape, but the Redbook lists a 30% condition gun in this configuration at $5,860. What are your thoughts on this one? The pictures are not very good and I’m going to ask for better ones.
http://www.gunsinternational.com/Winchester-Model-64-25-35-Deluxe-Carbine.cfm?gun_id=100369017
As usual, many thanks for your expert opinions.
Al
Im very confused about the wild claims of % condition in ads. How would anyone have the nerve to claim 90% on this ? The R/S receiver looks from the photo to be 0% , and L/S very thin blue looks about 10% if you could measure the remaining finish in relationship to what was on the gun when new. It would be nice if there was some guideline on % ?
That Model 64 is not factory original. When I surveyed it a few years ago, it was a standard Carbine… somebody upgraded the stocks, and most likely after my article about the Model 64 was published in The WINCHESTER Collector ❗ The old saying "Caveat Emptor" comes to mind.
In my research survey, I have found (7) legitimate Deluxe Carbines in 25-35 WCF.
I currently have nearly (1200) Model 64s in the survey, and of that number, just (66) are 25-35 WCF (as opposed to (96) in 219 Zipper.
Bert
WACA Historian & Board of Director Member #6571L
And this is why I ask the experts. Thanks Bert. Can’t imagine how much money you save new comers like me. Of the 66 25-35’s in your survey, how many are 20" barrel?
Al
Al,
You are welcome. I suspect that my research surveys are starting to make at least a few of the "shady" dealers out there quite nervous.
In answer to your question, there are (17) Carbines, and (7) Deluxe Carbines that I have verified thus far made in 25-35 WCF.. Extrapolated out over the entire production (66,783), it indicates that (1165) Carbines, and (490) Deluxe Carbines were made in the 25-35 WCF cartridge. Keep in mind that the actual numbers will undoubtedly be something different (but relatively close).
Bert
WACA Historian & Board of Director Member #6571L
Bert I have a question about your survey’s if the actual number of
66,783 in manufactured 64’s is accurate and your survey number of 1200
rifles and carbines how can u determine the numbers that u have come up
with thus far with such a low number in your survey of what is maybe
2 % of the estimated number made?
First, I do not know if the 66,783 number is accurate. It is the number published in several different source documents, and as of right now, I have no evidence or suggestion to the contrary. So for arguments sake, let’s make the assumption that it is a valid total production number.
Yes, I do agree with you that a survey that only contains 2% of the total production leaves a lot of room for error, but thus far, my survey results are not indicative of a significant error %.
Now, let me briefly discuss how my research survey is composed. I started this particular survey back in the late summer of 2006. Shortly after I reached (100) Model 64 serial numbers surveyed, I created two extrapolation tables (using an Excel spreadsheet). The two tables calculate the total production for each variation, and the total caliber production for each variation. The formulas that I programmed into the spreadsheet are relatively simple.
Total Production (TP) = 66,783
So, here is the example;
Rifles = 58
Deer Rifles = 30
Carbines = 9
Delx Carbines = 3
Total: 100
The total number of Deluxe Carbines (Rifles, Deer Rifles, and Carbines) surveyed is divided by the total number surveyed. This gives you the total percentage for each variation, and when the % number is multiplied by the TP, it gives you the extrapolated number for that variation.
Delx Carb (3) divided by (100) = 3%. 66,783 x .03 = 2,003. This is the extrapolated total number of Deluxe Carbines manufactured.
As the total number of each variation surveyed increases with each new entry, I created a formula that auto recalculates the variation total percentage, and then it auto recalculates the extrapolated number for each variation.
Now with that number established, I computed the calibers surveyed for each variation in the exact same fashion to determine the extrapolated total number for each caliber;
Deluxe Carbines = (100)
30 WCF = xx
32 WS = xx
25-35 WCF = x
25-35 WCF (x) divided by (100) = [color=blue:46df1be2be]X%[/color:46df1be2be]
2,003 (the extrapolated total number of Delx Carb) x [color=blue:46df1be2be]X%[/color:46df1be2be] = the extrapolated total number of 25-35 WCF Deluxe Carbines.
During the survey, as I reached the (200), (300), (400), etc. mark, I looked at what the extrapolated total production was for each variation, and also what he extrapolated caliber production total was for each variation. After passing through the (500) total surveyed mark, the rate of change for the extrapolated totals became almost nil, and the extrapolated total numbers are showing negligible change as well.
So and in summary, while the numbers I have arrived at are not the final answer, I believe that they are relatively close (+/- 5%). The one certainty is that as more samples are surveyed, the margin of error will decrease, and the picture will become clearer. I like to look at it like I am working on a puzzle with 66,783 pieces, and that I currently have (1,200) locked into place.
Bert
WACA Historian & Board of Director Member #6571L
tionesta1 said
thanks Bert
Al,
You are welcome 🙂
Bert
WACA Historian & Board of Director Member #6571L
Now I am even more confused as to the number of Model 64’s manufactured? How can a survey even be remotely accurate if one
has no idea how many were made? Is the 66783 number a number
that Madis came up with?
quantrez said
Now I am even more confused as to the number of Model 64’s manufactured? How can a survey even be remotely accurate if one has no idea how many were made? Is the 66783 number a number
that Madis came up with?
I believe that Madis may have used that number, but it was provided to him by Winchester. I first found the number in documents written by G. Watrous, T. Hall, and T. Henshaw.
Like I mentioned in my previous response, "for arguments sake, let’s make the assumption that it is a valid total production number". The fact that there is no proof to the contrary for the production number allows me no other choice but to use that number. You can argue about its validity all day long, but at the end of the day, it is still the only number available to us at this time.
Bert
WACA Historian & Board of Director Member #6571L
As an update to the extraplotated production numbers published in the article I wrote, here are the current numbers;
Variations % surveyed, and extrapolated totals;
Sporting Rifles – 54.23% Extrapolated: 36,219
Deer Rifles – 27.42% Extrapolated: 18,311
Carbines – 11.59% Extrapolated: 7,742
Deluxe Carbines – 6.75% Extrapolated: 4,511
Calibers % surveyed, and extrapolated totals;
30 WCF – 59.60% Extrapolated: 39,804
32 WS – 24.82% Extrapolated: 16,575
219 Zip – 8.70% Extrapolated: 5,807
25-35 WCF – 5.98% Extrapolated: 3,992
Thus far, I have surveyed (17) Carbines, and (7) Deluxe Carbines in the 25-35 WCF caliber. My extrapolation formulas indicate that the total production would be (1165) Carbines, and (493) Deluxe Carbines in that caliber. Again, these are not hard set (validated) numbers, but instead they are a forecast of what the production totals could be based on verified Model 64s thus far. I will propose to you that my research is better than nothing at all.
Bert
WACA Historian & Board of Director Member #6571L
Bert I have to disagree : about something being better than nothing?
That sounds exactly what is coming out of Washington I mean DC.
I am not against surveys entirely but without a total number of manufactured Model 64’s aren’t you afraid of doing more harm than good?
Have you ever read Bob Renneberg’s book on the Model 94’s he gives
a bit of information on the 64’s and gives an entirely different estimated
number of 50 thousand to 100 thousand leaning towards the higher number due to the frequency of encounter. I also seem to agree with
him as there are surely plenty of them out there?
Not sure how a survey could do more harm than good,at the very least we know which calibers and variations are more common or which are the rarest which to me is most important .
John K
quantrez said
Bert I have to disagree : about something being better than nothing?
That sounds exactly what is coming out of Washington I mean DC.
I am not against surveys entirely but without a total number of manufactured Model 64’s aren’t you afraid of doing more harm than good?
Have you ever read Bob Renneberg’s book on the Model 94’s he gives
a bit of information on the 64’s and gives an entirely different estimated
number of 50 thousand to 100 thousand leaning towards the higher number due to the frequency of encounter. I also seem to agree with
him as there are surely plenty of them out there?
Well then, we need to agree to disagree, as I do not share your opinion.
I have a personally autographed edition of his book. I realize that you have no idea that Bob and I are well acquainted, and that I provided Bob with a fair amount of the new information that he put in the 2nd edition of his book, especially the chapters on the Model 55 and Model 64. Bob added his own thoughts in places, and that was his right to do so. I do not completely agree with a number of things he has in his book, and I suspect that given the opportunity, his intent is to change a few things if he can talk his publisher into a 3rd edition.
I am curious how my survey "could do more harm than good"… can you elaborate on that?
Bert
WACA Historian & Board of Director Member #6571L
Quantrez, as one who is doing a survey on the Model 53, there is a lot of good information one can extract from a survey, even if one does not know the exact number made. For example, it can give you a good estimate of the percentages of various types in the model. It can also yield information about the production history of the model. There are other very interesting facts that emerge as well, as I shall discuss in the article I am working on for the Model 53. Knowledge is always useful, even if it is incomplete.
First off your right Bert I did not realize you were instrumental in the
writing of Mr. Renneberg’s book the only place I found your name was as
a thanks to you as a volunteer at Cody in the records research sorry for the
mistake.
I personally like Bob’s style of writing. And think he did an excellent job.
He seemed very care full not to try to nail any numbers down to exact
so I am interested in where you disagree with him in that era.
As to my statement about harm in a survey. Over time written word’s just
seem to become fact’s right or wrong they just become the way people think. The one thing I am sure of is that when dealing with anything
related to the history of the Winchester Co. or Fire-Arms Fact’s are very
rare That being said if a survey is complete then they are fine but sometimes that can take years even longer than a lifetime?
The first problem I see is in the Total number Manufactured ?
Where did the 66,783 number come from? I don’t know but it has
been published so does that mean it is correct? I have a good idea
that the number came from Winchester to George Madis? Lets see now
that didn’t turn out to good for George on the Model 94?????
Renneberg speaks of a number quite different from 50,000-100,000
now that changes things to almost twice the 66,783 .
Maybe I am wrong or just plain ignorant but I simply don’t see how in
the world you can take an unknown number of rifles manufactured have
1% maybe 2% in a survey and claim a + or – 5% error. If this is the
case and I just don’t see it then Bert you have got it nailed down to the
tee. If you are within 5% either way you will never get it any closer and
you can move on to something else.
Winchester1886 I almost forgot you sorry If you will get
Bob’s book and read his chapter on the Model 64 you will find out that
according to Bob Bert has left out TWO calibers in his survey?
If you don’t have a copy I will be happy to provide with the other 2
calibers offered or cataloged
Quantrez
So glad you didn’t forget about me,i actually have 3 copies of his book,car,house,business.I correspond with Mr. Renneberg a few times a year he,s actually working on a new project.And Bert is aware of the 32/40 and the 38/55 calibers and has them in his survey, there is just a few of each.Whether there is 50k or a 100k production of the 64 the percentages of each caliber is unlikely to change very much.
John K
*winchester1886* said
QuantrezSo glad you didn’t forget about me, i actually have 3 copies of his book,car,house,business. I correspond with Mr. Renneberg a few times a year he’s actually working on a new project . And Bert is aware of the 32/40 and the 38/55 calibers and has them in his survey, there is just a few of each.Whether there is 50k or a 100k production of the 64 the percentages of each caliber is unlikely to change very much.
John K
Yes, last time I spoke to Bob he mentioned he didn’t know if a Third Ed was going to happen, but that he had possibly something else in mind. Sure am interested in seeing what that may turn out to be. Always looking for more info on the Model 1894. Not a lot out there.
Matt
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