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TXGunNut said
Maybe, but what about the ones that notice it brought less than the auction “experts” forecast? Did someone get a bargain? Did everyone else see something the “winning” bidder missed? Did the auction house “experts” get it wrong? There has been so much fraud that sometimes even an item that is likely correct will not bring what it probably should. I’m no expert but I pay attention to what the more experienced eyes see. Even the experts have been fooled and they’ve also been wrong, IMHO. Many of us enjoy finding a very unusual or rare item; is this one of them? We’ve learned that Winchester would fill almost any order and there were/are likely dozens of “one of a kind” Winchesters.
I hope this carbine is exactly what it appears to be and the new owner is enjoying his recent addition.
Mike
I agree with this but would add that many don’t pay attention. A great many. As far as the auction estimate, that can be another entire realm of tomfoolery. Sometimes they set the low to entice people to bid, sometimes they set them high to add validation (try to anyway) to the rarity/desirability of the piece. And often it’s just a WAG. If I were asked by the auction house to provide an estimate, I would struggle at that task. Usually in put an estimate together on anything, one takes a look at what other similar items are selling for. In real estate, they call this, “comps.” Well, when was the last time we saw a M54 .32-40 offered?
It’s another very cold day here and another day spent inside. Too much time to think. I was thinking more about our frequent analysis of auction bidding and hammer prices. I think this is a topic of speculation and discussion because it is so murky. One variable – who is the piece being purchased for? At one end you have the dealers. They are at the auction to purchase inventory. They may have a specific customer in mind or it might be pure speculation.
Then there is the collect who may be purchasing the piece for himself but he keeps the ultimate down-range sale in mind. He is a collector but also has a financial investment orientation.
Then there are the guys who don’t plan to disburse their collection before they die. Maybe they have no heirs or ungrateful heirs. Again, why hold back from buying something that appeals to you?
Then there are the guys for who it isn’t really about the piece, but about the, “winning” – the ego rush that comes from being the last man standing.
Then there are the guys who have more foresight than the rest of us. I can think of lots of high-end pieces that sold years back for what most labeled, “ridiculous money” to only sell for a vast amount more a couple years later.
Then there are the guys who have unlimited budgets. We (and I) have sometimes referred to these guys as having, “more money than brains.” That may be unfair. They simply may have no care or worry about paying more than others think they should have. I’m not referring to myself (and I truly wish I were) but some people have made crazy money in the stock market the last five years. Why not use a tiny fraction of it do buy something you really want? I would have done that with this .32-40. When am I going to find another for sale? And what the heck, it even sold for less than the expert estimating.
Also, there are the guys who don’t have unlimited budgets, they haven’t done their research, they get hoodwinked and they really feel the burn. Some of them have experiences that are bad enough that they lose their taste for collecting. I’ve seen examples where the pride of a recent purchase can turn to shame and humiliation when the piece is displayed to others more knowledgeable who point out significant flaws.
clarence said
TXGunNut said
I like CJS57’s theory but in the absence of factory records a critical eye is recommended, especially in this price range. Even if that is truly what happened a certain segment of the market will pass on an item that requires an explanation. At this price point an item’s value is closely tied to what the next owner is likely to pay for it and how long it will take to sell.As Steve pointed out, once a gun brings big money in a major auction, most potential buyers, should it come up for resale, will regard the fact of its previous sale as absolute verification of its legitimacy. “Most,” I said, not the cognoscenti-us!
I did not read the whole thread and did not look at the gun and am not talking about Morphys. But there are cases where a gun hammers at an inflated price and does not really sell. Then at some later date it is really sold for some price under the previous price. You can’t always base values on estimates or previous hammer prices. Read Steve’s later post and he points out some other reasons why prices may be effected. I for one am not a dealer and have sometimes paid more than what the gun was worth just because I had to have it. The internet is not always your friend. The best way to learn is to go to as many guns shows as you can. Pickup every gun you can and actually see what prices these guns are selling for.
Chuck said
But there are cases where a gun hammers at an inflated price and does not really sell. Then at some later date it is really sold for some price under the previous price.
An old trick of dealers in the fine art market when they had a stock of paintings that weren’t bringing what the dealer thought they should be worth was to put them in an auction & have a couple of accomplices bid them way up above their previous selling prices. Some months later the same paintings would be put on the market again with the hope that (since the art market is very much fad-driven) customers who might previously have had little interest would think they’d better buy now before the prices rise even higher.
Though the internet is not always your friend, the auction house is never your friend!
Well, here’s a Colt 1878 in the quote eare caliber of .476 Eley that hammered at Rock Island Auction for $10,000 ($11,500 including buyer’s premium) back when firearms were much cheaper. It also has condition and was once owned by Felix Bedlan.
https://www.rockislandauction.com/detail/59/1185/colt-1878-revolver-476-eley
Fast forward 8 years to October 2021. It hammered at $2750 ($3300 including buyer’s premium).
A great example of a firearm having been sold at a good price and yet, despite this pedigreed auction, it only brought a fraction of a previous sale, even with a general significant increase in firearms valuations over the last decade or so.
mrcvs said
Well, here’s a Colt 1878 in the quote eare caliber of .476 Eley that hammered at Rock Island Auction for $10,000 ($11,500 including buyer’s premium) back when firearms were much cheaper. It also has condition and was once owned by Felix Bedlan.https://www.rockislandauction.com/detail/59/1185/colt-1878-revolver-476-eley
Fast forward 8 years to October 2021. It hammered at $2750 ($3300 including buyer’s premium).
A great example of a firearm having been sold at a good price and yet, despite this pedigreed auction, it only brought a fraction of a previous sale, even with a general significant increase in firearms valuations over the last decade or so.
There’s a lot of variables out there – especially when trying to figure out what happens at auctions. Sometimes it’s shenanigans (e.g. shill bidders) and sometimes, not. When you mentioned the previous winning bid for this revolver, the question came to mind, “I wonder how many of those bidders are still alive?” Many of the major players are no longer with us. The absence of just a couple of these guys can have a big impact on an auction. Replacements might not be coming in as fast as they are leaving. Fortunately for Winchesters, there is a large collector base and we do see new members show up. I can’t say the same for Bullards, Whitney-Kennedy and Burgess rifles. When I first started collecting these rifles I was the youngest guy in the group by 40 or 50 years. Needless to say, nearly all the collectors I knew are gone. Replacements have been very rare.
mrcvs said
Well, here’s a Colt 1878 in the quote eare caliber of .476 Eley that hammered at Rock Island Auction for $10,000 ($11,500 including buyer’s premium) back when firearms were much cheaper. It also has condition and was once owned by Felix Bedlan.https://www.rockislandauction.com/detail/59/1185/colt-1878-revolver-476-eley
Fast forward 8 years to October 2021. It hammered at $2750 ($3300 including buyer’s premium).
A great example of a firearm having been sold at a good price and yet, despite this pedigreed auction, it only brought a fraction of a previous sale, even with a general significant increase in firearms valuations over the last decade or so.
Point well taken but these may not be the same gun? Look at the listed serial numbers.
Chuck said
Point well taken but these may not be the same gun? Look at the listed serial numbers.
The serial number in the Cowan Auction listing is in error. They are the same firearm, this being serial number 18713.
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