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ratio of 1892 takedowns
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August 28, 2022 - 3:28 pm
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I was wondering how many 1892 takedowns per 1000. According to George Madis’ handbook page 127 there was a total production of 1,004,675 of 1892s. he also states a total of 1,403 takedowns. My calculations come out to be 1.4 takedowns per 1000. Can this be correct? My takedown  is 32-20 with a round barrel made in 1915. This would seem like being almost as rare as the 1/1000 winchester 73’s (just kidding}. Is Madis’ info correct? Don

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August 28, 2022 - 3:46 pm
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Don,

First, the production number you quoted from Madis is not correct.  Per the Polishing Room serialization records, there was a total of just 1,007,608 Model 1892/92/53/65 receivers that were manufactured.  If you remove the Model 53 and Model 65 production totals from that number (approximately 12,000 guns), the total Model 1892/92 production was approximately 995,600.

Second, the “1,403” total number of Take Downs is grossly understated.  My guess is by at least a factor of 10. While I am not the person who is surveying the Model 1892/92, I suspect that the total number of Take Downs is something close to 15,000, and it could be significantly higher.  Michael (2bit) more than likely has a much more accurate estimate than I do… hopefully he chimes in on this topic.

So in summary, No, the information published by Madis is definitely NOT correct (accurate).

Bert

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August 28, 2022 - 6:44 pm
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The 1403 relayed by Madis is a bit short for sure.  Ive always wondered how he came up with that number and have chalked it up to being a calculation based on the number of TD rifles he may have observed in his time collecting data on the model.  An statistical model is difficult to apply beyond an extrapolated total based on what has been observed across the 1892 population by a surveyor.  Even then, there are many other variables that play into those numbers and survey models. 

Back to the original question, in the 20 years Ive been collecting information on 1892 takedowns, Ive come across likely 1100 or 1200 but have been selective in requiring that I have full serial numbers to eliminate any duplicates, which takes a number of those observed off the survey roll.  A majority of the data has come from internet sales, gun shows, and folks providing information directly.   So, if your the data set is being driven by those three factors, what is a fair assessment of the the percentage of takedown rifles that represents the total number produced, 20%, 10%, or less?  Is the number of TD rifles observed for sale skewed on the lite site because they stay in collections longer or because fewer were produced, or on the heavy side, because they are desirable and there are more opportunities to turn them on a sale?  The variables are many.

Would venture to guess that the number of takedown rifles produced would fall between 1.5-2% of the total rifle production, or between 1-1.5% of the total production. Just dont see them as often as say an 1894 takedown.  Just my 2 cents for what its worth.

Michael and I havent really collaborated on our survey data to date, so it would be interesting to see what he’s got to add.  Provided our survey parameters are the same, would anticipate our results may likely be similar. 

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August 28, 2022 - 10:55 pm
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Another factor that may affect the guns we see is the survival rate. A sizable percentage of guns no longer exist due to various reasons. A TD may have a better survival rate due to the higher purchase price encouraging better care or possibly a lower survival rate because the original purchaser bought it to use hard, as many 92’s were. The percentage of production would be interesting but Chris’ observation that 1894 takedowns seem to be a more common is consistent with my limited observation.

 

Mike

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