Avatar
Search
Forum Scope




Match



Forum Options



Minimum search word length is 3 characters - maximum search word length is 84 characters
Lost password?
sp_Feed sp_PrintTopic sp_TopicIcon
Model 1886 Survey
sp_NewTopic Add Topic
Avatar
Member
WACA Member
Forum Posts: 125
Member Since:
February 5, 2016
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
1
February 18, 2017 - 6:56 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print sp_QuotePost

There is a excellent survey in the Winchester Collectors Magazine Spring 1991. Where can I get a copy of that survey or the Spring 1991 issue?

Thanks Kirk

Avatar
Member
WACA Guest
Forum Posts: 378
Member Since:
July 7, 2011
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
2
February 18, 2017 - 8:18 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print sp_QuotePost

Kirk: As a paid member, you can access that issue on the forum under the “publications” heading at the top of the login page.

Avatar
Kingston, WA
Admin
Forum Posts: 10726
Member Since:
April 15, 2005
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
3
February 18, 2017 - 9:07 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print sp_QuotePost

Kirk,

I recommend that you obtain a copy of John Madl’s book on the Model 1886. The survey completed by Bill Porter has errors in it. John with the assistance of John Hawk (a former assistant in the CFM research office) conducted an extensive survey and the production numbers they recorded are more refined than Porter’s numbers.

Bert

WACA 6571L, Historian & Board of Director Member
High-walls-1-002-C-reduced2.jpg

Avatar
Member
WACA Member
Forum Posts: 125
Member Since:
February 5, 2016
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
4
February 19, 2017 - 12:33 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print sp_QuotePost

Bert,

You always have something good to add. I just ordered the book.

Have another question: Is there a formula/matrix where I could enter the characteristics of a rifle to find out how many guns of that specific type were made?

Mathematically I think I know how to do it based on % probabilities but would like some thoughts.

Thanks

Kirk

Avatar
Kingston, WA
Admin
Forum Posts: 10726
Member Since:
April 15, 2005
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
5
February 19, 2017 - 6:58 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print sp_QuotePost

Kirk Fitzgerald said 

Have another question: Is there a formula/matrix where I could enter the characteristics of a rifle to find out how many guns of that specific type were made?

Mathematically I think I know how to do it based on % probabilities but would like some thoughts.

Thanks

Kirk  

Kirk,

In answer to your question, No, there is not.  In order for something like to work, it would require a very detailed listing of the entire production run for the subject model.  Additionally, the more items that you add to the matrix, the more complex the formula would need to be to accurately calculate (extrapolate) the potential production number.  In my surveys, I limit the total number of variable per formula to just two. Beyond that, it gets very complicated.

Bert

WACA 6571L, Historian & Board of Director Member
High-walls-1-002-C-reduced2.jpg

Avatar
Member
WACA Member
Forum Posts: 125
Member Since:
February 5, 2016
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
6
February 22, 2017 - 6:37 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print sp_QuotePost

Burt,

I have spent the last several  days wrestling with trying to get a answer to how uncommon is my rifle. I understand your point about the level of confidence being reduced after the use of two variables in production number percentages. Bottom line I want to know if my rifle is possibly a one-of-a-kind.

Here is the whole story. The Factory Letter states:

Rifle

45/70

1/2 octagon barrel

Plain trigger

Plain pistol grip

Lyman front and rear sights

Shotgun butt

Rubber butt plate

2/3 magazine

By any standard the gun is 90%+ condition

From the Porter survey in can get most of the production data. But factory data does not address, at least consistently, factors like plain pistol grip, shotgun butt, rubber butt plate and Lyman sights.  I would guess that surveys of existing guns would provide some insight, not absolute data as to potential numbers. I know that I will not get a mathematically derived answer to how rare is the gun. However with any additional data based on surveys of existing guns I may arrive at an intrusive probability range of rarity.

Help/data from anyone would be appreciated.

Cheers Kirk

Avatar
Kingston, WA
Admin
Forum Posts: 10726
Member Since:
April 15, 2005
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
7
February 22, 2017 - 10:00 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print sp_QuotePost

Kirk,

I am very confident that your Model 1886 riffle is not a “one-of-a-kind”, or even close to it. Of the features you listed, none of them are rare, or even uncommon.

1. 1/2 octagon barrel… many thousands were made
2. Plain pistol grip… at least a few thousand were made
3. Shotgun butt… tens of thousands were made
4. Hard rubber butt plate… tens of thousands were made
5. 2/3 magazine… at least a few thousand were made
6. Lyman front & rear sights… many thousands were made.

The odds are very high that at least a few hundred rifles were made just like yours.

Bert

WACA 6571L, Historian & Board of Director Member
High-walls-1-002-C-reduced2.jpg

Avatar
Member
WACA Member
Forum Posts: 125
Member Since:
February 5, 2016
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
8
February 23, 2017 - 10:13 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print sp_QuotePost

Lets deal with real numbers.

Production percentage numbers for the Model 1886 are as follows:

2/3 Magazine = 2.0% for a total of 240 rifles with this feature.

1/2 Octagon Barrel= 2.2%

Pistol grip=4.5%

These are enough to make my point. I need not use the other variables  i.e. caliber, ETC.

Starting with a known production number of 240, and assuming normal distribution of features the following is offered:

 240 X 2.2% octagon barrel=5.28 (possible productions guns) X 4.5% pistol grip=0.2 (possible production guns).

It can be seen that, without going into all the other known variables and observed or anecdotal variables, i.e. rubber butt plates were less used that metal , ETC the answer is that there is a high probability that another such configuration does not exist.

For this discussion I don’t care if there is  better survey data than Porter,s out there where we an argue tenths of a percent and production numbers. This data is good enough for government work.

I believe this makes a convincing case for a one-of-a-kind gun.Cool Thoughts all?

Additionally if someone has a same configuration gun let me know.Wink

Cheers Kirk

Avatar
Kingston, WA
Admin
Forum Posts: 10726
Member Since:
April 15, 2005
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
9
February 23, 2017 - 10:45 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print sp_QuotePost

Your “real” numbers are bogus, and your math calculations need work.

Assuming that 2.0% is an accurate number, that equates to almost 3,200 total specimens (160,000 Model 1886s x .02). 4.5% equates to 7,200, and 2.2% equates to 3,520.

Bert

WACA 6571L, Historian & Board of Director Member
High-walls-1-002-C-reduced2.jpg

Avatar
Winchester, VA
Member
WACA Member
Forum Posts: 972
Member Since:
November 5, 2014
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
10
February 24, 2017 - 12:16 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print sp_QuotePost

Hi Kirk-

I do not presume to be a math professor (OTOH apparently maybe I do… But I’m not Wink).   I am sure the specific combination of features present in your rifle are rarely encountered together…

The thing is that your statistical argument is based on the assumption that each variable sorts independently.  For example, that guns ordered with half octagon barrels were no more (or less) likely to be ordered with half magazines than rifles with full octagon barrels.  I suspect that certain features ‘tended’ to be ordered together, which if true would invalidate the pure statistical argument based on ‘random assortment’.    

A curious example from back in the 1980s was when President George Bush (1st), his wife Barbara, and their dog Millie all came down with the same thyroid condition (Grave’s disease) within the space of a few years.  There was great concern within the White House that this was some kind covert of Soviet plot.  It turns out that (according to the CDC that was called in to investigate) the prevalence of Graves disease in the population (including dogs!!!) was high enough that the ‘odds’ of three people in the same household coming down with the condition within a few years of one another was only about 1:20,000.  VERY unlikely, but not impossible…  Such are the powers and pitfalls of statistics!!!

Any way you ‘sort’ it, however, it’s a nice rifle in a rare configuration and POSSIBLY one of a kind.

Best, Lou

WACA 9519; Studying Pre-64 Model 70 Winchesters

WACA-Signauture-3.jpg

Avatar
Member
WACA Member
Forum Posts: 125
Member Since:
February 5, 2016
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
11
February 24, 2017 - 1:15 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print sp_QuotePost

Burt/Lou,

Got it. Thanks for both for you input. Not much is easy.  Lou good story.

Good to hear from you again Lou. You helped me a stock swivel for one of my 1886’s. Many thanks for that.

Cheers

Kirk

Avatar
Member
WACA Member
Forum Posts: 125
Member Since:
February 5, 2016
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
12
February 24, 2017 - 1:22 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print sp_QuotePost

Lou, Just noticed you are studying Pre-64 Model 70’s. I have one, a standard 300 H&H. What kind of data are you looking for?

Cheers

Kirk

Avatar
Winchester, VA
Member
WACA Member
Forum Posts: 972
Member Since:
November 5, 2014
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
13
February 24, 2017 - 3:44 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print sp_EditHistory sp_QuotePost

Hi Kirk-

This is off-topic, but… In his book Roger Rule, got most everything right (IMHO), so there’s not much to gain from studying these rifles beyond what must be gained by ‘hands-on’ experience (that books cannot teach).

Most of my ongoing ‘surveys’ are so obscure that I do not ask for help here.  I do the ‘homework’ myself from the internet and fellow aficionados I know (both dealers and collectors), who understand that I am not trying to find rare guns for the purpose of trying to acquire them myself (something of which ‘surveyors’ of rare items are sometimes accused).  

So some things I’m interested in at present are:

1) Ramped straight taper barrel M70s.  Both .375 MAGNUM and every other chambering, i.e. ‘1st variation target models’ (the rifles of which Rule said there were only 40 or so known).  So far I’ve found some info on 23 ramped straight taper barrel M70s that aren’t 375 MAGNUM and I think there were a good number more than 40 made…  

2) Front sight heights on rifles with Lyman 31W (pre-war standard rifles) and/or Redfield “full gold bead” SGs. This is a curious one to me.  The catalogs I’ve seen to date do not specify height.  Rule says the “Redfield 255″ (0.360” height) is correct on SGs (which is why Redfield 255 sights sell instantly on Ebay for big $ while the 254/256 sit forever).   But others have reported different height 31W and Redfield gold bead sights on old ‘beater’ M70s, raising questions.  Madis’ sight book claims different height 31W front sights were used based on M70 chambering, which kind of makes sense since it was common practice in earlier times on other models, but the ‘books’ do not validate this.  If anyone has info, I’d like to know!!!

3) Position of the front sling swivel of M70 SGs in relation to the fore end tip.  On the earliest guns is was about 1/4″, but at some point it got moved back to about 3/4″, presumably b/c the wood kept splitting out.  See pics below of a couple of mine [SN 3768 (1937) versus SN 50821 (1942)].  I am trying to narrow the SN range of the changeover.

3748-swivel-copy.jpgImage Enlarger50821-swivel-copy.jpgImage Enlarger

The challenge with M70s is that I must assume that every one I see has been ‘helped’ somewhere along the way, so the only chance to get info is to look at ‘population averages’, which will eventually reveal which are the ‘outliers’ (unless all M70s have been ‘helped’ randomly).  This is something all the people here who do Winchester surveys know!!!

Bloody statistics!!!

Best, Lou

sp_PlupAttachments Attachments

WACA 9519; Studying Pre-64 Model 70 Winchesters

WACA-Signauture-3.jpg

Forum Timezone: UTC 0
Most Users Ever Online: 778
Currently Browsing this Page:
1 Guest(s)
Top Posters:
clarence: 6281
TXGunNut: 4970
Chuck: 4571
1873man: 4282
steve004: 4161
Big Larry: 2324
twobit: 2291
TR: 1710
mrcvs: 1706
Forum Stats:
Groups: 1
Forums: 17
Topics: 12651
Posts: 110001

 

Member Stats:
Guest Posters: 1745
Members: 8792
Moderators: 4
Admins: 3
Navigation