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Out-of-line prices
March 19, 2017
4:35 am
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This was a comment on an excellent thread but it raises an excellent question:

These selling prices help drive the price guide in those pesky gun values booksWink-1892takedown

 

My neighbor to the south raises an excellent question. How do folks who research gun values handle an abnormal event like the 92 discussed in this thread, or is it an abnormal event? I love auctions mainly because I know folks get caught up in the excitement and do silly things, great entertainment. Unless, of course, I'm the one who gets caught up in the excitement. Wink

My question is; do these events impact the prices we non-excitable types pay for the old Winchesters we love?

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March 19, 2017
5:17 am
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First, who is to say that the selling price for that particular Winchester is "out-of-line" ?

In answer to your question, the values listed in the Red Book are not based on single gun sales.  Instead, the values listed are an average of all similar guns that have sold over a 2-3 year time period.  In doing that, it tends to mute the really high prices and the abnormally low prices.

Bert

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March 19, 2017
6:14 am
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Who am I to say, indeed? When a buyer and a seller agree on a price it doesn't really matter what I think.

I wish I knew, Bert. I do know that with enough data an occasional spike doesn't mean much. I guess a better question is how do these events affect auction prices? I'd like to add a nicer 92 to my collection but the asking price for this rifle is a bit discouraging. It's a bit higher condition than I would normally consider but at this point I think the next buyer is off the deep end of the ego pool or thinks he can make something off of it. Either way it makes little sense to me. I'm just trying to make sense of the prices this rifle has brought and could possibly bring and quite honestly can't do it. OTOH I haven't seen this rifle or any quite like it but I do feel that any collector with a similar rifle in his collection is paying attention to this rifle.

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March 19, 2017
2:26 pm
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TXGunNut said: These selling prices help drive the price guide in those pesky gun values booksWinkWink

No, not always just that, unfortunately! If you are into Colt SAA revolvers, look at the Blue Book of Gun Values and the prices listed there. Through the roof! The values listed, if you read any disclaimers, ARE retail, according to the Blue Book of Gun Values, but, my observations are that they exceed full retail significantly. This is because, I am told, a high end Colt dealer is largely responsible for this section. They are based on his already inflated retail prices plus an adjustment for inflation which is far in excess of any realistic inflation figures. Caveat emptor! The Fox is in the henhouse.

March 19, 2017
5:27 pm
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mrcvs said

 look at the Blue Book of Gun Values and the prices listed there...

I haven't in a long time, because I never regarded them as anything but very rough estimates--perhaps useful to someone who knew nothing about collector guns--insurance adjusters, antique dealers, pawn brokers, etc.--but not to serious collectors, who observed actual prices first-hand at gun shows.  Flayderman's book is immensely valuable as a general reference, but many of his values were actually much lower than prevailing gun show prices, at least the early editions.

March 19, 2017
11:41 pm
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No, not always just that, unfortunately! If you are into Colt SAA revolvers, look at the Blue Book of Gun Values and the prices listed there. -mrcvs

 

Actually, the quote attributed to me above is where I was quoting 1892takedown in another thread. It got me thinking (dangerous, I know!) and I didn't want to hi-jack a very good thread. I use the Blue Book for a reference tool, lots of good info. Some of his prices seem low, some high, but I'm basing my impressions on comparatively few guns. I don't feel he does much ongoing research because I've noticed several guns' values don't change from year to year. OTOH it would be next to impossible to gather new data for every edition on all the firearms he lists. Larry and Bert's Red Book is a better tool, of course, but just like loading manuals I like to compare data from different sources. On one firearm recently I found the Blue Book was significantly lower than the Red Book. My conclusion was that the Blue Book was a bit behind the market trend and that interest in that gun was likely growing. Since many retailers use the Blue Book for pricing I felt I was getting a bargain because the retailer was relying on outdated info.

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March 19, 2017
11:48 pm
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TXGunNut said
OTOH it would be next to impossible to gather new data for every edition on all the firearms he lists...

Then why publish a new edition?  (I mean, except to sell another book.)

March 20, 2017
2:38 am
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Good enough reason, I've been buying them for years. I don't buy every edition but I have several. They take up a lot of room so I try to pass on my past editions. The Red Book has been a much better investment for me in the last several months but I still rely on the Blue Book as a complementary source for Winchesters and a primary source for other makes. Most of the info on other makes is available on the 'net but I still like a hard copy. Same reason I keep a shelf full of loading manuals. Two sources is better than one but sometimes four or five is even better.

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March 20, 2017
5:41 am
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The Redbook has more down to earth values given. Some are too high and some are too low. But, if you collect guns for a few years, you get a pretty good handle on values. I would like a factory engraved Martially marked Henry too, but the prices on these rifles are what most buyers ask for them Book value on them is near impossible. I know very few people that can afford a standard Henry much less a engraved specimen.

Gun values are pretty much close to what the asking price is. We all get great deals on occasion and sometimes we get the screws put to us. It evens out in the end, usually.

Books are just reference points.      Big Larry

March 21, 2017
2:36 am
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I don't have your years of experience to rely on so I have to rely on published guides, Larry. I also rely pretty heavily on a hands-on inspection. I know there are regional differences but all in all there's no way I could compile and organize the data necessary to rival the Red Book for reliable data on Winchesters. Yes, books are reference points but I'm old-fashioned; I like to see something in print to confirm (or refute) what I'm thinking about an old Winchester.

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March 21, 2017
2:54 am
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TXGunNut said
...I like to see something in print to confirm (or refute) what I'm thinking about an old Winchester.  

OK as long as you remember "in print" does NOT necessarily mean correct! 

March 21, 2017
9:17 am
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clarence said

OK as long as you remember "in print" does NOT necessarily mean correct!   

Man, you are 100% right on Clarence.   Big Larry

March 22, 2017
12:13 am
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clarence said

OK as long as you remember "in print" does NOT necessarily mean correct!   

Yes, of course. A bit like the loading manual reference above. 

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