Is the value of 75-98% Winchesters down sine the Election of 2024…or not?|General Discussions & Questions|Forum|Winchester Collector

Ian-

I think the 80-90% segment of the market is a bit soft but I think this rifle should have done a bit better. I do agree that it seems to be a buyers’ market but that may be because there aren’t enough buyers for a gun like this one. If that’s the case we may never see this gun bring what we think it should bring. I’ll be interested in what the folks who went to Tulsa think the market condition was there. The TGCA show is in two weeks but I think some prices have been soft at this show for a few years. I’m looking at some estate guns now and the seller wants what they were worth several years ago and I’m not sure I will be able to help her out. 

Mike

I don’t follow these prices closely  but I think antique Winchester lever actions with less than perfect condition – at least the popular models made in large numbers like the 92 and 94 — are not bringing what they once did for several reasons:

1. While there are some young collectors of the genre,  it seems to be mainly a disease of the elderly. Who are dropping like flies as the 21st Century proceeds. 

2. Those guns are not really rare – there are increasingly more than enough to go around. Those in unquestionably perfect condition are locked in institutional or family collections that seldom enter the market. 

3. Like it or not,  FN-sponsored production of the 1873, 92, and 94 appeal to many Winchester fans and compete for market share with original Winchester lever actions in less than mint condition. While you might not care whether a 95% Model 92 can be shot because 44 WCF is hard to buy in shootable quantity,  there are apparently a large number of ignorati willing to spend fifteen hundred bucks for a very nice new 92 that shucks and shoots 357 magnum pistol cartridges. Their plastic works as well as yours and this choice once did not exist. 

4. The Old West of fact and fiction now competes with G.I. Joe and his descendants, apparently all of whom are or were long range snipers obsessed with 1000 yard targets.  Quigley helped Shiloh and C. Sharps, not Winchester. 

Perhaps an apostate’s opinion, but the numbers don’t lie. 

I have been able to find some rare guns in the last few years at fair prices.  I don’t know why but I have bought a bunch of guns for less than I had expected.

Zebulon said

If we are talking about moderate condition 1886 or 1876 models, that is quite another. For all their notoriety, relatively few were manufactured. 
I have yet to see a 95% condition 1886 of any style go for less than an eye-watering price. 
  

I usually don’t buy average condition guns.  But I don’t normally by 90% either.  I’m not into safe queens.  All I know is the market has been good for me.  I recently bought a 73 Musket and a 73 22 Cal.  They are in moderate condition but I got them cheap.  And they fill a slot.  The 22 is a project.

The last 86 I bought, as you say, was not cheap. 

These rifles were fine (great) at the beginning of my collecting.  But as time went on, why buy something that would be a downgrade of what I already have?  And for many of us, a lot of time has gone by. I think we naturally evolve toward better condition, greater rarity, special features and so on.  So there is less demand for these rifles among established collectors, and with fewer and fewer new collectors coming in, it’s logical the demand for these pieces would be going down.  And of course when demand goes down, prices go down.  

There are a great many established collectors out there.  And many are still quite thirsty for more.  But it’s what they are looking for is the significant variable.  I think that’s why for several years we have progressively seen startling price jumps for the pieces that make established collectors salivate.

Let me add that I’ve kept many of my lesser pieces.  I’ve had many for a long time.  And even though I still like them a lot (and some are favorites), I feel I have enough of them.  

Zebulon said
I will only add what my old mentor told me a long time ago,  which has saved me from grief more than once. “When the elephants fight, the grass gets trampled.”
  

And we’ve all seen a lot of trampled grass

mrcvs said

antler1 said
I just returned from Tulsa and I must say that any higher condition Winchester lever guns I looked at definitely have NOT gone down in price.
  

You can price anything as you wish.  But were they actually selling?
  

 I walked in the Tulsa Show at 10am Friday and kept moving most of the time until 7pm. Came back Saturday and did the same from 7:30 to 4pm until I no longer could. It was fun but I’m still stiff. Saw a lot of money changing hands next to nice Winchesters, not much movement on medium to low condition guns. It’s hard to tell what the guns sold for, you only see the asking price on the tag. I did ask several friends as they bought, prices were high on nice guns. I paid attention to 1866 rifles and anything worth owning went 8-12k. I spotted four Friday morning and Saturday three were gone. Deluxe grade levers with condition were selling. No shortage of money. T/R