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Estimating Winchester 1892
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December 20, 2023 - 2:03 pm
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TXGunNut said
I’m not convinced the rising tide concept applies today. We have all seen one segment of the market experience a huge upswing but the price of these “ships” may not affect the price of “boats” on inland lakes, so to speak. 

What’s the one segment of the market with a huge upswing?

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December 20, 2023 - 2:28 pm
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mrcvs said

twobit said

Good morning Chris,

Based on what I can see from the images your rifle would commonly sell in the $1500 range. 

As this forum is to learn and enhance one’s knowledge base—no offense, but there’s no way this rifle is worth $1500.

It has no original finish, it’s well worn, the receiver is heavily pitted, and it’s in .32 WCF, the least desirable caliber in the Model 1892.  Maybe a rising tide lifts all ships (meaning perhaps all firearms have increased in value recently, no matter what they are, but it seems to me this is a $750 or maybe $1000 rifle because, what else can you get for $1000 these days?

Can anyone provide examples of recently sold similar Model 1892 rifles actually selling for anywhere near $1500? 

I watch hundreds of auctions every month and have very often been thoroughly surprised by what some rifles will sell for.  For those of us who love to collect high condition guns examples like this one are almost “worthless” to us.  Because we just do not want them.  BUT… there are tens of thousands of guys out there who do not have multiple thousands of dollars to spend on +75% condition rifles and are happy to own a rifle like this.  It’s all that they can afford.  I have constantly seen POS examples of 1892 rifles that sell for $1000.  Some of these are cut down, have non original barrels and many other sins that we would never accept.  Others are not as choosy or do not recognize the problems.  They are no less happy with their purchase and it is wonderful that they are.  The collector community is a large group and not just high end buyers.

Michael

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Model 1892 / Model 61 Collector, Research, Valuation

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December 20, 2023 - 5:28 pm
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mrcvs said

TXGunNut said

I’m not convinced the rising tide concept applies today. We have all seen one segment of the market experience a huge upswing but the price of these “ships” may not affect the price of “boats” on inland lakes, so to speak. 

What’s the one segment of the market with a huge upswing?

  

From what I can see the high condition fancy guns are bringing top dollar and then some, especially from big collections. Guns I’m interested in have only seen a moderate uptick if anything. 

 

Mike

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December 20, 2023 - 6:37 pm
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TXGunNut said

mrcvs said

TXGunNut said

I’m not convinced the rising tide concept applies today. We have all seen one segment of the market experience a huge upswing but the price of these “ships” may not affect the price of “boats” on inland lakes, so to speak. 

What’s the one segment of the market with a huge upswing?

  

From what I can see the high condition fancy guns are bringing top dollar and then some, especially from big collections. Guns I’m interested in have only seen a moderate uptick if anything.   

That’s what I expected you would say.  But I didn’t want to steer the conversation.

The firearms collecting fraternity reflects society.  The top 1% of firearms out there, just like the top 1% of income earners—both the value of the top 1% of firearms and the top 1% of incomes—are increasing exponentially.  Probably the increase in valuations of the top 1% of firearms is only fractional relative to the percentage increase in incomes of the top 1%.  A six figure firearm might double in value quickly, but it’s such a small amount of money to the ultra rich that it really doesn’t matter.  The nice stuff, but not the top 1%, that’s the stuff the middle to upper middle class likes.  As that sector of the population shrinks, its less folks chasing after this stuff, plus it’s the sector likely to be indoctrinated in college and therefore be fearful of, rather than collect, firearms.  So, valuations cannot increase a whole lot here.  And then the bottom sector, the folks with limited income.  For them, a thousand dollars is a lot of money.  They scrimp and save and are thrilled to have that thousand dollar firearm despite numerous problems with that firearm, as the alternative is nothing at all.  It’s just a reflection of society.

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December 20, 2023 - 11:51 pm
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 I think some of these high dollar guns are being bought by wealthy investors as a hedge on inflation. If you have deep pockets where do you put it, certainly not a saving account.  There were very few people on the floor at the last RIA auction but the guns sold high. Off sight bidding is convenient and RIA does it well. You and I have no idea who they are. This might be what’s driving the prices of the top 1% guns. These investors don’t what the guns working men collect. They buy the best to decorate their man cave with guns they think are better than money in the bank. T/R 

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December 21, 2023 - 2:06 pm
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Well ‘jeez they are better than money in the bank, whether they are $700.00 guns or $30,000.00 guns , plus they are a lot more enjoyable to look at than a bunch of numbers in a bank book. And the braggin’ rights can’t be replaced with a few bucks.

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