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Just wondering what any other WACA members feel the number is on how much percentage book values have dropped ?
I have several collector value references & of course my “go to” is Bert’s red book(2016) but none of them are current other than FJestad(yearly). Auction prices & selling prices are generally much lower than the book values for the past few years.
A realistic percentage deduction from the printed values would help but I know there’s other variables to consider such as the model etc.
RickC
November 7, 2015
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In my humble opinion there is no valid fixed percentage as certain segments of the market have held their own while other segments have done poorly or have very few buyers. As a rule I think higher condition and fancier guns are doing fairly well and the 70-80% guns I enjoy have taken a substantial hit. The lower grades have little interest and seem to be going for liquidation prices. That said, I don’t study the auctions as some around here do but I do watch a few models I have some experience with. Just my opinion, best answer is study auction results for the model you’re interested in. Even those results are a bit misleading as they seem to be higher than face-to-face sales prices and include substantial premiums. Price guides are still useful for determining collector interest and identifying models and features, IMHO.
Mike
Fair enough Mike. I just find the values indicated in all the books is much higher than what the average sales prices finalized are. It would be helpful to hear someone has been following this closely & a general rule of thumb currently for prices is ie; 20% + or – etc less than current book values.
I believe Bert has commented on this actually & stated somewhere the values are lower since his 2016 edition. I’m not trying to de-value guns here, just a discussion on realistic prices in the current market the last couple years, maybe not something all collectors want to hear. ??♂️
RickC
Yes and if Your studying auction prices don’ t forget to calculate the fees, (juice), involved . Personally I haven’t seen a noticeable decline in prices, like was said, especially for the “quality” and rare pieces. In My 50+ years in the collecting / tradeing circles this has always held true, quality pieces bring good prices and poor pieces bring low prices. One needs to remember that when trying to make a. decision whether to buy The $5000.00 high condition piece or the similar $1500.00 lesser condition/finish piece, which one will probably appreciate faster. I f You buy quality You will have quality to sell and if You buy junk You have junk to sell. Over the years I’ve bought mostly what I enjoy looking at, but with investment return potential in mind, I haven’t made money on every piece I’ve owned, but overall it has been quite rewarding, both financially and self satisfaction of accomplishment. I have put several different collections together and I can’t tell You the feeling when You find the last couple pieces to complete a collection. I also try not to get caught up in “what’s selling” and what’s not. Buy what You like, it will be easier to hold out for a better price when it comes time to sell. As most of Us long timers , I’ve seen several shifts in popularity over the years, and will probably continue to do so as the younger folks get into collecting,hopefully.
W.A.C.A. life member, Marlin Collectors Assn. charter and life member, C,S.S.A. member and general gun nut.
I recommend not paying much attention to price guides. You need to follow the market. I have some of these books but only use them for the information about the various models and how they relate to each other. These guides just can’t be kept up to date, even the ones put out annually. Used to be less than honest dealers would use them to rip off sellers. Since I don’t go to over a dozen collector shows a year like I did for over 25 years, I am out of date.
I do agree with Mike that the nicer guns hold their value.
Chuck said
I recommend not paying much attention to price guides. You need to follow the market. I have some of these books but only use them for the information about the various models and how they relate to each other. These guides just can’t be kept up to date, even the ones put out annually. Used to be less than honest dealers would use them to rip off sellers. Since I don’t go to over a dozen collector shows a year like I did for over 25 years, I am out of date.I do agree with Mike that the nicer guns hold their value.
I agree with all that Chuck. As aside note, I have found way more low end buyers than high end. I’ve always been able to sell my shooters mostly to new or interested firearm enthusiast catching the Winchester bug & have that $1000 range price point & enjoy collecting several rather than one high condition. There’s far more of them than high value collectors.
The other thing I’ll say is yes the nicer guns seem to hold their value…unless the owner over paid or got carried away at an auction. Jmo
RickC
RickC(AG) said
I agree with all that Chuck. As aside note, I have found way more low end buyers than high end.
RickC
I know a few dealers that have made a great business out of selling the lower end guns. There is definitely a market.
There’s an old saying at Tulsa, “If there’s one of something it sells and if there’s two of the same, neither one sells.” Human nature, rare always sells in the collecting world whether it is minty or not. Buy rare and selling is easy! T/R
November 7, 2015
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RickC(AG) said
I agree with all that Chuck. As aside note, I have found way more low end buyers than high end. I’ve always been able to sell my shooters mostly to new or interested firearm enthusiast catching the Winchester bug & have that $1000 range price point & enjoy collecting several rather than one high condition. There’s far more of them than high value collectors.
The other thing I’ll say is yes the nicer guns seem to hold their value…unless the owner over paid or got carried away at an auction. JmoRickC
I buy mostly in the $1000 range but last few shows I’ve attended (2019) I was hard pressed to find buyers in that range. I agree that’s a pretty large market segment but for some reason I haven’t had much luck with them lately.
Mike
TXGunNut said
In my humble opinion there is no valid fixed percentage as certain segments of the market have held their own while other segments have done poorly or have very few buyers. As a rule I think higher condition and fancier guns are doing fairly well and the 70-80% guns I enjoy have taken a substantial hit. The lower grades have little interest and seem to be going for liquidation prices. That said, I don’t study the auctions as some around here do but I do watch a few models I have some experience with. Just my opinion, best answer is study auction results for the model you’re interested in. Even those results are a bit misleading as they seem to be higher than face-to-face sales prices and include substantial premiums. Price guides are still useful for determining collector interest and identifying models and features, IMHO.
Mike
Mike nailed it from a general standpoint which, on the whole, is a big part of the cycle that right now is similar to that of the late 90s.
James
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