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In the recent James Julia auction, many Winchester 1873’s failed to sell or the sale price was weak. Is this the beginning of a larger trend, or did many of these Winchester 1873’s offered in the sale have inherent defects not evident in photographs or descriptions?
This 1873 made a strong recent showing as was estimated to go for between $12,000>$18,000 at last month’s RIA auction and went for just under $26,000.
Winchester Model 1873 44-40 circa 1886
Many auction houses are raising the expectations of what Winchesters might bring, in hopes of raising expectations of what buyers will be required to pay to win. IMHO
Vince
Southern Oregon
NRA member
Fraternal Order of Eagles
“There is but one answer to be made to the dynamite bomb and that can best be made by the Winchester rifle.”
Teddy Roosevelt
That 1873 that sold for $26K at RIA last month seems to be an extreme outlier based on the data from James Julia in their latest auction. There were several estimated to sell in the $20 to $30K range that failed to sell and they had more special order features, such as a pistol grip, than the RIA gun. This is just comparing outward features based on one photograph and there may have been a lot more going for the RIA firearm and/or critical problems with those in the James Julia sale.
I looked at a few of the Julias guns that didn’t sell and some had over the top estimates and others were guns that had configurations that were not desirable by most collectors i.e. round barrels, shotgun butts and 1/2 mags. One gun had no serial number.
Bob
WACA Life Member--- NRA Life Member---- Cody Firearms member since 1991 Researching the Winchester 1873's
Email: [email protected]
November 7, 2015
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I was talking to a shooting club member last weekend and he told me that the market for high-end competition shotguns was a bit soft. Not sure if it has any correlation or even if his info was accurate. A few sales (or unsold offerings) won’t give an accurate picture of the market. I think the high-end antique Winchesters in some of these auctions are probably a world unto themselves, probably not a good idea to apply trends with these guns to the market as a whole.
I’d like Bert’s input on this, he spends quite a bit of time researching this very subject. I suspect it takes several months and thousands of sales to determine a trend but he could have some early insight.
Like other commodities and equities; if enough people think the market is down, it will be.
With the exception of the truly high-end and/or rare Winchesters, the entire market has softened a bit in the past 12-months. I attribute it to the current political environment… pre-election jitters.
Bert
WACA Historian & Board of Director Member #6571L
I attended both the September RIA premier and this weeks James Julia auction and handled most all of the Winchesters. The group of 1873’s at Rock Island were better guns in terms of condition. There were also at least twice as many buyers in person bidding at RIA than at Julia’s. Also the prices stated in Julia’s catalog were high to began with for the condition of the 1873’s. The majority of the the guns sold went below estimate but close to the real market value.
I think it is a combination of all the comments. Portion of guns weren’t high condition for the most part and there were a lot of them but the variety was decent (bbl lengths, etc). 10 Henry’s and 20 1866’s is tough to keep the price up. The estimates were high on a portion(Volcanics especially). The economy isn’t as strong as it is being portrayed in the media. Combine this with RIA sale a month or so ago, Julia’s, Cowan’s, Amoskeag, and RIA again it’s tough to sell $50 million worth of guns in 4 months plus the major shows. I also agree with Bert the election has people concerned which way the hobby could go in a hurry.
To All 1873 Collectors;
My opinion as to why the ’73’s at Julia’s didn’t do as well as did RIA’s ’73’s is this. 1) As 1873man pointed out, not many Collectors want ’73’s with round barrels, shotgun butts, half magazines any more. Now they want full octagon barrels, full magazine, creasant butts, 44/40 caliber, and in what they perceive to be high condition, be it re-finished or not. 2) As far as “High End” or “Rare” Winchesters being more in demand, from my past experience, that’s a joke. If the “Collectors” want these firearms at all, they want them at ridiculously low prices. (Market or Economic Change perhaps?) 3) As for the election of a “Gun Unfriendly Administration” (H.R.C.’s) affecting the ability to own these Antique Winchesters, I don’t think so. Most of the really collectable Winchester Lever guns (ie, Henrys, 1866, 1873, 1876, 1885, early 1886, early 1892’s, early 1894’s and early, prior to 1898, Model 1895’s) are considered “Antique” and don’t come under ATF regulation, not including “Short Barreled Trappers” under 16 1/4″. Of course early firearms of the other manufacturers are also exempt from these ATF regs. It is my opinion that there are perhaps too many “Empty Pocket Lookers” and not enough “Buyers”. Also many of the “Buyers” that are out there are looking to “Kick an Old Lady down the stairs”, if you know what I mean. That’s my opinion, (Sour Grapes?) be it correct or not. This, to me is the reality of the current situation as it exists today.
Apache (YaTaHeyKola)
From the “Prices realized” e-mail from James Julia:
“For a while now, antique Colts have been showing signs of softness and this auction was no exception but at for the first time, another area showing signs of softness was the Winchester and Volcanic arms. A number of great examples failed to sell or performed at lower levels than they had in the past. Obviously a reflection of current large offering and availability of rare Winchesters on the marketplace today. Just prior to the Julia’s sale, there was another major auction which included an expansive offering of quality Winchesters. The Julia auction had a terrific array of quality Winchesters and within a few weeks, there will be another major auction of quality Winchesters coming onto the block. Under the circumstances, the soft prices are not a surprise but do create a tremendous buying opportunity for serious collectors.”
So even James Julia admitted that Winchester prices are showing signs of weakness.
November 7, 2015
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mjuarez0829 said
now only if i had the money for some of the soft prices…..
Excellent point, I’m in the same boat. Been snapping up solid old Winchesters like they were pennies on the sidewalk for the past few years. Have decided to save up for a few higher quality pieces but the kitty can’t handle even today’s “soft” prices.
To All;
I wonder if part of what we’re seeing between RIA’s auctions and J.J’s auctions, this as far as difference in prices go, could be the conditions that the 1873’s are offered in. According to some, the condition of the RIA’s Winchester rifles were higher than J.J’s. Whether original or not has yet to be determined. In the past there has been issues as to the condition and originality with a number of Winchesters that have been put up for sale, both at auction or in On Line sales venues. Is the Market really getting soft, or has the quality and knowledge of the Buyers that are out there changed? Actually I’ve found that as far as early Colt pistols go, be they Percussion or Single Action Army firearms, in many cases the prices have gone up, not down. Early in 2016 I purchased an 1862 Police with a 6 1/2″ barrel in “Antique Good” condition. It is an early 4 number revolver, and is inscribed. The price now, in October has gone up around 30%. That’s UP 30%, not Down. I haven’t sold any Winchester ’73’s of late, so I can’t really comment on those. I’ll know for sure next year, as I plan to sell one or two.
Apache (YaTaHeyKola)
As regards the slump in auction prices: In my opinion, it only takes the withdrawal of a couple three big hitters to dampen the market. The price drain starts at the top but quickly flows downhill as difference in prices between the “gems” and second/third tier guns retain their separation.
WACA Life Benefactor Member
NRA Life Member
Rick Hill said
As regards the slump in auction prices: In my opinion, it only takes the withdrawal of a couple three big hitters to dampen the market. The price drain starts at the top but quickly flows downhill as difference in prices between the “gems” and second/third tier guns retain their separation.
Has this indeed occurred? Are there a few big players no longer interested in collecting Winchesters or recently deceased? I am thinking of folks like Wes Adams, although he has been gone awhile now and his collection brought decent money to other folks with deep pockets. What did you have in mind?
November 7, 2015
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So even James Julia admitted that Winchester prices are showing signs of weakness.-mrcvs
I found that a bit odd. Remarks like that are not in his best interests as an auctioneer of collectible firearms. No idea if he’s right but will give him credit for trying to be transparent.
mrcvs said
Has this indeed occurred? Are there a few big players no longer interested in collecting Winchesters or recently deceased? I am thinking of folks like Wes Adams, although he has been gone awhile now and his collection brought decent money to other folks with deep pockets. What did you have in mind?
Speaking of Wes Adams..
Vince
Southern Oregon
NRA member
Fraternal Order of Eagles
“There is but one answer to be made to the dynamite bomb and that can best be made by the Winchester rifle.”
Teddy Roosevelt
Initially, 688 lots were reported to have not sold in the last Julia auction.
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