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The red flags would go up right away when a Winchester Model 70 in .38-55 was offered. Or any unusual caliber, for that matter. That is just the Day, and age in which we live in. The rifle is still available, and I am not going to buy it. But, I would like to examine it if I had the chance. Like I said earlier a very knowledgeable friend of mine looked over the other gun in .32 W/S, and told me He could not find a problem with that rifle. Did they come from the same collection? Most likely, but I am not sure. I find them interesting. Others may not, and that is OK with me.
I’m not knowledgeable about what to look for, but, given the presumably unique chambering and an absence of any corollary proofs (e.g. work orders, correspondence), I would want (1) the barrel caliber stamp examined at a magnification of many diameters to determine the method of imprinting the steel; (2) that same area of the barrel X-rayed to ascertain whether a prior roll mark had been obliterated or removed and filled in; (3) the bore of the barrel borescoped and the rifling and chamber examined by a reputable Model 70 expert to see if these were typical of New Haven’s work for the period. And (4) the precise measuring and recording of the barrel OAL, ramp and rear sight seat locations, for comparison to known norms.
Going at it another way, assume a hypothetical such gun is fraudulent. If so, considering the money sought by a hypothetical seller, what would be the most likely method used to create the fraud:
A. Altering a genuine Model 70 barrel by re-chambering it and removing and replacing the caliber stamp. Query: was there an otherwise correct Model 70 barrel in existence with correct .38-55 bore and groove diameters plus sufficient steel left in the chamber area to permit this method without having to cut off threads and set the shoulder back?
B. Method A. but having to rebore and cut new rifling, as well.
C. Obtaining a barrel blank with integral ramp and rear sight swell, made of chrome molybdenum alloy and drilling, rifling, chambering, finishing, and marking to suit. Short of knawing it out with his teeth while underwater, I can’t think of any other way more difficult and time consuming.
I am willing to bet a donut a cooked M70 in 38-55 would most likely be accomplished by Methods A. or B. As such, if I were an interested buyer, I would make any offer contingent on expert examination and testing, by experts of my selection, with the costs split between buyer and seller. If the gun is real, buyer buys gun at agreed price and reimburses seller for Seller’s half of testing costs. If the gun fails, no sale and the seller reimburses the buyer for buyer’s share of testing costs. Makes a real gun cost the buyer more but he gets a proven rarity, the immediate jump in value likely far exceeding the costs of the proof. If the gun fails, seller is punished by bearing the testing costs and value of his gun going into the dumper. But he avoids Club Fed as long as he doesn’t find another buyer and then fails to disclose it’s faked.
- Bill
WACA # 65205; life member, NRA; member, TGCA; member, TSRA; amateur preservationist
"I have seen wicked men and fools, a great many of both, and I believe they both get paid in the end, but the fools first." -- David Balfour, narrator and protagonist of the novel, Kidnapped, by Robert Louis Stevenson.
Zebulon said As such, if I were an interested buyer, I would make any offer contingent on expert examination and testing, by experts of my selection, with the costs split between buyer and seller.
Yes, fine idea, if there were not a plethora of fat-cats as eager for the bragging rights of owning such a rarity as they are willing to accept the seller’s claims as God’s Own Truth; I mean, they WANT to believe! Knowing this seller has no incentive at all to accept such a proposition…which, if his gun failed the test, would put the kibosh on his investment.
clarence said
Zebulon said As such, if I were an interested buyer, I would make any offer contingent on expert examination and testing, by experts of my selection, with the costs split between buyer and seller.
Yes, fine idea, if there were not a plethora of fat-cats as eager for the bragging rights of owning such a rarity as they are willing to accept the seller’s claims as God’s Own Truth; I mean, they WANT to believe! Knowing this seller has no incentive at all to accept such a proposition…which, if his gun failed the test, would put the kibosh on his investment.
This is a very significant force out there.
Well, I had in mind a more prudent and intelligent, advanced M70 collector, likely a WACA member, disinclined to buy the Brooklyn Bridge.
Let us assume the hypothetical 38-55 Model 70 at issue was faked by a really good professional faker and offered for a hundred thousand USD.
Let us also assume the interested collector is Lou Luttrell’s less-experienced but more aggressive and oil-rich Texas cousin, Joe Bob, who has called Lou for advice.
Lou, who fears the seller is an unscrupulous trickster out to defraud Joe Bob, calls me for advice, on the theory it takes one to know one.
Forgiving Lou for his assumption, I would have recommeded the previously suggested contingency contract, to be a signed writing and prepared by Bardell. Pickwick. Motley & Slick LLC, Joe Bob’s Houston counsel. BPM&S would probably insist on a third party to hold the gun and the purchase and testing money.
The very thought of making such a deal would smoke out all but the most self-confident tricksters. As you say, there are enough sheep to shear without taking risks.
- Bill
WACA # 65205; life member, NRA; member, TGCA; member, TSRA; amateur preservationist
"I have seen wicked men and fools, a great many of both, and I believe they both get paid in the end, but the fools first." -- David Balfour, narrator and protagonist of the novel, Kidnapped, by Robert Louis Stevenson.
Zebulon said
Well, I had in mind a more prudent and intelligent, advanced M70 collector, likely a WACA member, disinclined to buy the Brooklyn Bridge.Let us assume the hypothetical 38-55 Model 70 at issue was faked by a really good professional faker and offered for a hundred thousand USD.
Let us also assume the interested collector is Lou Luttrell’s less-experienced but more aggressive and oil-rich Texas cousin, Joe Bob, who has called Lou for advice.
Lou, who fears the seller is an unscrupulous trickster out to defraud Joe Bob, calls me for advice, on the theory it takes one to know one.
Forgiving Lou for his assumption, I would have recommeded the previously suggested contingency contract, to be a signed writing and prepared by Bardell. Pickwick. Motley & Slick LLC, Joe Bob’s Houston counsel. BPM&S would probably insist on a third party to hold the gun and the purchase and testing money.
The very thought of making such a deal would smoke out all but the most self-confident tricksters. As you say, there are enough sheep to shear without taking risks.
Seller’s response to Joe Bob: “WHAT? Drop dead.” And that’s the smart response, too, as plenty of eager, uncritical, & equally rich, collectors are lined up behind Joe Bob.
But Joe Bob’s hundred large would be safe..
- Bill
WACA # 65205; life member, NRA; member, TGCA; member, TSRA; amateur preservationist
"I have seen wicked men and fools, a great many of both, and I believe they both get paid in the end, but the fools first." -- David Balfour, narrator and protagonist of the novel, Kidnapped, by Robert Louis Stevenson.
November 5, 2014
Offline
Zeb-
Regrettably my Cousin’s are not in the oil business… 
They aren’t even Doctors or Lawyers…
As my more “prudent and intelligent” mentor told me, it’s wise to “think like a faker” when evaluating one of these “rare” or “unicorn” guns. What would it take to “make” that gun starting from an original M70 (preferably a common one). That tells you where you need to look…
For example… A “fake” M70 in 35 WHELEN is likely to be a bored out and re-marked 30-06. Everything will match… The only alterations may be the bore (what kind of rifling?), caliber stamp, and barrel finish (re-blue after caliber stamp). Similarly, a 220 SWIFT or 300 MAGNUM “Carbine”… Basically a gun with 6-inches cut off the barrel. Only the crown and from ramp are altered…
OTOH… Some “forgeries” require fabrication of new parts, especially barrels. But the barrel steel specifications are known, as are the bore diameter(s), land/groove dimensions, and twist rates for every cartridge Winchester ever chambered in anything. They are accessible on-line in the CFM Library files…
For example, all (but one) of the M70s I’ve gotten to examine in the 30 WCF family, the 38-55 family, and the 405 WCF, i.e. cartridges that headspace on the rim, used a flat breech system like that employed in the M54 30 WCF, not the M70 cone breech. You’d have to “make” that barrel from scratch, starting from a blank of ample diameter. More opportunities to make a mistake, starting with the rifling. Did they start with a commercial barrel blank or make the barrel from bar stock, the way Winchester did. Not just number of lands/grooves and twist rate, but how was the rifling cut? Are the barrels marked with genuine Winchester roll dies (or very good copies) or using some other (usually obvious) method? Are the ramp, proofs, crown, etc., correct?
But don’t underestimate these guys… Apparently it’s not quite as hard as you think!!! 
If Winchester could do it a Century ago it can be done again (and apparently is being done)… Yes, the up front “investment” is high, but if you can buy a beater pre-war 30 GOV’T’06 standard rifle for $1000 and after working a little magic sell a “genuine” M70 in 22 Savage Hi-Power for $22,000 at auction, it wouldn’t necessarily take long to realize a ROI.
Best have Bardell, Pickwick, Motley & Slick LLC on speed dial when shopping for these guns!!! 
Lou
WACA 9519; Studying Pre-64 Model 70 Winchesters
Lou,
That is exactly the kind of masterful response I was hoping for.
- Bill
WACA # 65205; life member, NRA; member, TGCA; member, TSRA; amateur preservationist
"I have seen wicked men and fools, a great many of both, and I believe they both get paid in the end, but the fools first." -- David Balfour, narrator and protagonist of the novel, Kidnapped, by Robert Louis Stevenson.
Yes, I agree with Louis in that the flat breech would be the first thing that I would look for in examining that .38-55.
November 7, 2015
Offline
I like the gun in question but it’s a moot point as I don’t collect Model 70’s and I’ll be writing some really big checks over the next few weeks to repair tornado damage to my home.
Hypothetically, if I were a Model 70 expert and I encountered a very high quality fake would I enumerate the issues on a public forum? No. I’m not a Colt collector but I know the folks who create the high quality fake Colts hang on John Kopec’s every word to learn what they’re doing wrong, and then they fix it! If you think we’re just chatting amongst ourselves check the number of guests at the bottom of the web page. As I type this there are 98 guests. It’s doubtful we know who all of them are, one or more are very possibly learning how to make a better fake Winchester.
As I said I really like this gun and I hope it is as presented, that would be very exciting! OTOH I listen to some of the voices in my head.
Mike
TexasGunNut, sorry about your tornado damage. We just had four of them up here by Cleveland last Tuesday. We are all trying to deal with that mess up here. I like the gun too! But, after seeing some more pictures of it I have some concerns. I will leave it at that.
If you think we’re just chatting amongst ourselves check the number of guests at the bottom of the web page. As I type this there are 98 guests. It’s doubtful we know who all of them are, one or more are very possibly learning how to make a better fake Winchester.
TXGunNut said
The art & science of high-grade fakery is so far advanced, & is so well understood by the masters of the craft, that I think there’s little risk of letting some previously unknown cat out of the bag. I guess amateurs could pick up useful pointers, but their work isn’t going to pass muster anyway. Discussing the tricks of the trade, however, may alert readers to red flags they might otherwise have missed.
Hasn’t anyone asked the seller to open & describe the breech?
Concur with Clarence.
I don’t know what the price threshold is that justifies the cost of forensic technology but I’d guess fifty thousand USD, to throw out a number
Assuming any of us were contemplating buying a unicorn in that price range, who would you engage to opine on it, what would be an anticipatable fee range, and what would the examiner do or have done for the fee?
- Bill
WACA # 65205; life member, NRA; member, TGCA; member, TSRA; amateur preservationist
"I have seen wicked men and fools, a great many of both, and I believe they both get paid in the end, but the fools first." -- David Balfour, narrator and protagonist of the novel, Kidnapped, by Robert Louis Stevenson.
Zebulon said
Concur with Clarence.I don’t know what the price threshold is that justifies the cost of forensic technology but I’d guess fifty thousand USD, to throw out a number
Assuming any of us were contemplating buying a unicorn in that price range, who would you engage to opine on it, what would be an anticipatable fee range, and what would the examiner do or have done for the fee?
Well, in the past, people used to send their Winchesters to George Madis and you would receive a multi-page hand written letter where he would render his opinion as to the authenticity of the rifle. This letter would then be added as supporting material when the rifle was put up for sale. When George was alive, I did availed myself of this service from him. I don’t know of anyone else (then or now) who provided this same service. The George Madis name was a prominent and well-known name. Most everyone knew it. The popularity of his books had much to do with this.
Well, in the past, people used to send their Winchesters to George Madis and you would receive a multi-page hand written letter where he would render his opinion as to the authenticity of the rifle.steve004 said
The cost for that service, inc. shipping? A better idea, I think, is simply to refrain from buying ANY gun about which there is doubt of its authenticity, & there are plenty that fit that description.
clarence said
Well, in the past, people used to send their Winchesters to George Madis and you would receive a multi-page hand written letter where he would render his opinion as to the authenticity of the rifle.steve004 said
The cost for that service, inc. shipping? A better idea, I think, is simply to refrain from buying ANY gun about which there is doubt of its authenticity, & there are plenty that fit that description.
Clarence, you have hit upon a serious problem for all collectors, and probably detriment to the ‘hobby’ of serious collecting.
With all the known ‘fakery’ surrounding Winchesters in particular, I think there is now reason for doubt about authenticity for everything on the market, even in the lower price ranges. I can say for certain that ‘doubt about authenticity’ has caused me to essentially stop buying on Gunbroker and other auction sites.
Unfortunately, I don’t have a solution to offer. I’d just recommend to anyone entering the hobby to be very cautious, and rely on experts, such as many folks here on this forum, before they buy anything.
Nevada Paul
Life Member NRA
Yes, This makes are hobby move difficult to traverse. A lot of Civil War collectors got out of this activity, because the prices on these pieces got so expensive, and the faking got so good. Well a lot of folks got burned. So, this happens in any collectible field. Fakers, and the money men. Unless I can spot something that sick’s out right away I try to take my time before I come to a conclusion. I have been collecting, and studying Winchesters for a long time. The Model 70 is my favorite. Can I get fooled? The answer is yes. But, they better be real good! Fakers seem to always miss something. I am not going to list these things. I took me years to find these things out. Thankfully, I am still learning. I have helped people, and they have helped me. We can get through this. A honest collectors thoughts are priceless! Another set of eyes isn’t a bad thing.
clarence said
Well, in the past, people used to send their Winchesters to George Madis and you would receive a multi-page hand written letter where he would render his opinion as to the authenticity of the rifle.steve004 said
The cost for that service, inc. shipping? A better idea, I think, is simply to refrain from buying ANY gun about which there is doubt of its authenticity, & there are plenty that fit that description.
I don’t remember what George charged back then but it really wasn’t all that much. If the conclusions he sometimes reached were not accurate, it was not because he didn’t spend a good bit of time examining the rifle.
As I stated in my earlier post, I can’t think of who offers this “service” for Winchesters now. Any parallels to John Kopec out there? I can’t imagine all the potential hassles that could be involved. Someone purchases a very high dollar Winchester represented as all original. You look it over, determine it is a fake. The buyer is screams murder, gets a lawyer, sues the seller and this all pivots on your assessment. Maybe the seller hires his own expert witness. It reminds me of criminal court cases where the prosecution has their own expert witness and the defense has theirs. In contracting to do this service for a buyer, I don’t know if there’s enough disclaimers that can be written into the contract to avoid this outcome.
I pulled this post from the Colt Forum. It illustrates several of the issues we’re discussing. I suppose Mr. Kopec sometimes (often?) receives the same gun over and over (from different buyers). This surely makes his job less time-consuming. How much time does he need to spend with a piece he has previously thoroughly examined? It is interesting that this Colt buyer seems to have ended up taking an increasingly common perspective: just stay away.
I’m passing this information along as a PSA for members interested in purchasing U.S. Colt SAA’s. Attached is a recent Kopec Letter received; not exactly the diamond in the rough Colt imagined, but more accurately, a turd in the punch-bowl. Seller was accomodating, sent the gun directly to JK as requested, refunded purchase upon receipt of returned gun. However, seller stated while the professional authentication process was “interesting”, he had other buyers “ready to purchase”. I feel very fortunate to have wiggled out of this situation for the price of a Kopec letter, John was great and called me within minutes of unboxing the subject revolver to review his concerns. Was not the first time subject Colt had been lettered.
This was my first and probably last foray into the dark alleyway of antique U.S. Colts. As always, Buyer Beware, and thank you Mr. Kopec!
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