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Not all signs point to a, "soft market"
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March 3, 2020 - 11:19 pm
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March 3, 2020 - 11:31 pm
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Steve, I looked at a lot of deluxe 86’s in Vegas last weekend.  Real nice ones were running 20-30K.  If condition and rarity is of less concern you could have gotten one that is unmolested for around 12- 15 K.  Of course silver and brown guns would even be cheaper.  One dealer was asking $125,000. Deluxe carbine in 50-100-450.  Top end guns still bring top money.

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March 3, 2020 - 11:36 pm
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Chuck said
Steve, I looked at a lot of deluxe 86’s in Vegas last weekend.  Real nice ones were running 20-30K.  If condition and rarity is of less concern you could have gotten one that is unmolested for around 12- 15 K.  Of course silver and brown guns would even be cheaper.  One dealer was asking $125,000. Deluxe carbine in 50-100-450.  Top end guns still bring top money.  

Chuck – that’s interesting to hear.  My point is that even some low-end rifles are bringing more than they should.  This one is not an original deluxe, it has non-original checkering, the barrel has been cut, it has both low finish and problems with the finish issues…

By the way, a deluxe carbine in .50-100-450!  Wow.

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March 4, 2020 - 4:49 pm
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steve004 said

Chuck – that’s interesting to hear.  My point is that even some low-end rifles are bringing more than they should.  This one is not an original deluxe, it has non-original checkering, the barrel has been cut, it has both low finish and problems with the finish issues…

Many people don’t always know what they are bidding on.  You are going to drive yourself crazy looking at internet guns..

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March 4, 2020 - 6:47 pm
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Chuck said

steve004 said
Chuck – that’s interesting to hear.  My point is that even some low-end rifles are bringing more than they should.  This one is not an original deluxe, it has non-original checkering, the barrel has been cut, it has both low finish and problems with the finish issues…

Many people don’t always know what they are bidding on.  You are going to drive yourself crazy looking at internet guns..  

Chuck – I suspect you are correct about that.  However, I very rarely make it to shows and haven’t made it to a good show in several years.  By default, the internet has been where I look.  

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March 8, 2020 - 3:15 am
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Did any one take note that my, “case in point” M1886 sold for over $4000 with 50 bids?  Has the world gone completely crazy?  Who are these people for whom condition and originality count for nothing?  I wouldn’t have paid $1000 for that rifle.

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March 8, 2020 - 12:39 pm
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Pardon my ignorance but is it the thought by most experts that the vintage Winchester rifle market is down right now?  I’ve heard that from several different places recently but I haven’t kept up with prices over the years to gauge and form my own opinion.  And what model / types are thought to be down?  i.e. M70s, shotguns, lever guns, all of them?  What are the theories as to why the market is down?

This interests me because I’ve heard for a long time now a theory that these older, collectible rifles would eventually start to decease in value since newer generations don’t appreciate them as much.  A similar argument has been made of the classic muscle car market and I don’t really see any evidence that is taking place, or at least not yet. 

If the market is actually down right now, I’d think it would be more related to the predominantly Republican controlled government.  True that democrats while in power don’t typically go after these types of guns but with them out of power, it feels like the entire gun market is soft right now. 

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March 8, 2020 - 1:04 pm
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I think it is generally thought that market is down for most old/vintage collectible items.  Guns, antique furniture, Model T’s, etc.  And the main reason seems to be the people who have enjoyed these items all these years are departing the scene and not being replaced.  Younger people these days didn’t grow up watching the same movies.  Interest in hunting is steadily decreasing and largely been replaced by interest in electronic gadgets.  

My impression is sales and prices at gun shows tend to be down more than internet auction prices.  

This doesn’t mean there are no sales.  Not all collectors have departed. Some of the big auction houses still net some very high prices for rare and top condition collectible rifles.  It seems the market has taken the hardest hit on plainer, more vanilla rifles.  These are rifles that collectors, who have been in it for decades, would not be interested in.  These rifles have historically been picked up by, “entry level” collectors.  However, if there are few entry level collectors, prices logically, stagnate.  

My thoughts anyway.

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March 8, 2020 - 1:18 pm
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I would rather own four $2500 guns than one $10k gun. The new collector & some experienced collectors feel the same way. I also find it much easier to move them than a couple high value ones I’ve had in the past which limits the buying field for most. When you’re getting up in the $7500+ range, a lot of things have to be right.
I’m going to start a new post asking when did you start collecting. It would be nice to hear from everyone to get a small idea of the numbers.

AG

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March 8, 2020 - 2:29 pm
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I find it easier to sell a high condition gun than a run of mill one. I am looking to buy a few pieces right now , Now that the prices have softened, (ha ha) but but nobody has replied to me yet. Anything I’m looking at seems to be still up there price wise, re; Henry, 66 rifle’ ’76’s ’86 musket, ’85’s etc. So show Me a good deal on one of these original high condition Winchester’s and I’ll likely buy it.

W.A.C.A. life member, Marlin Collectors Assn. charter and life member, C,S.S.A. member and general gun nut.

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March 8, 2020 - 4:16 pm
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AG said
I would rather own four $2500 guns than one $10k gun. The new collector & some experienced collectors feel the same way. I also find it much easier to move them than a couple high value ones I’ve had in the past which limits the buying field for most. When your getting up in the $7500+ range, a lot of things have to be right.
I’m going start a new post asking when did you start collecting. It would be nice to hear from everyone to get a small idea of the numbers.

AG  

AG I kind of agree with you.  I would rather buy 2 guns than one real expensive one. I don’t sell so I am not worried about moving them.  When I started collecting you could buy pretty nice guns for $2,500.  So after trading up for years I have less guns but nicer guns. Be patient, buy unmolested guns and the best you can afford at the time.  Then trade up.

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March 11, 2020 - 2:06 am
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Everybody has their own reasons and agendas for collecting. Some guys here are flippers, some are just collectors and not sellers, some only buy high condition high value guns that my entire collection wouldn’t add up to.

Whether you agree or not a Soft market to me only seems to affect the high value high condition guns. Rare guns & honest shooters always seem to hold their own. That’s the majority of my acquisitions & soft market doesn’t apply to these. I get what I paid or a little extra. I’m happy with that.

AG

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March 11, 2020 - 3:48 am
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AG said
Everybody has their own reasons and agendas for collecting. Some guys here are flippers, some are just collectors and not sellers, some only buy high condition high value guns that my entire collection wouldn’t add up to.

Whether you agree or not a Soft market to me only seems to affect the high value high condition guns. Rare guns & honest shooters always seem to hold their own. That’s the majority of my acquisitions & soft market doesn’t apply to these. I get what I paid or a little extra. I’m happy with that.

AG  

Yep, I have to agree.  I live in the lowly collector world of Winchester .22s where the top of the market is no more than 4-5k but the average is a $200 gun.  Shooter grade rifles abound and the .22s are the trifecta of investments; Winchester name, low initial cost and low cost to shoot.  Couldn’t ask for more than that.  The “middle class” .22s seem to be holding their value.

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WACA Life Member #6284 - Specializing in Pre-64 Winchester .22 Rimfire

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