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Current & Future Market Forecast
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January 28, 2020 - 3:08 am
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TR said
People spend thousands on fancy boats, camping trailers, RV’s, fancy pickups, snowmobiles, airplanes, horses, and they call it a hobby.

Okay, I lead a very modest lifestyle and partake in none of the above.  But I guess those of modest means finance the above, on credit, and call it a hobby.

Quite foreign to me.  My “hobby” lately is to maximize retirement contributions.  I don’t want to work forever.  Do you?

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January 28, 2020 - 3:20 am
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David McNab said

Hopefully someday, the younger shooters will realize what they have missed out on and return to Old School Quality.  

Not likely–how can they afford it?  Unless of course, Daddy is a millionaire.  But even a guy living from paycheck to paycheck (a condition absolutely incomprehensible, evidently, to many on this forum) can probably afford a black rifle.

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January 28, 2020 - 4:27 am
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So what are you doing about it? Have you ever taken your kids or grandkids to a gun show? (hopefully a small one at first so they don’t get bored) How about a Cowboy Action Shoot, or a S.A.S.S? Have you taken them trap or skeet shooting? Did you get them in a firearms safety course? Hunter education course? Take them to the range? Bird hunting? Small game? What about the neighbor kids? 

Shoot low boys. They're riding Shetland Ponies.

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January 28, 2020 - 5:31 am
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I agree with many here that the lever gun market has softened, particularly Winchester.  The fact there are a plethora of some models can be a factor.  The really high condition guns usually don’t take as big of a hit, though.  And for certain kinds or models the market may not soften as much.  One of my areas of interest is military shotguns including Winchester’s.   While the market for them softened a bit during the recession, it has come back even stronger than before the recession.

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January 28, 2020 - 10:49 am
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Although not often high condition, rare holds its own as mentioned. I believe that in the future, there are more high condition guns than there will be high condition buyers for several reasons discussed here.
When you own anything rare, it has a draw all to its own. Condition may always be 1st for most collectors, but don’t dismiss the demand for rare. It might just hold more value & be more affordable to future prospective collectors.

AG

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January 28, 2020 - 2:35 pm
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I am a younger (43) collector. This conversation is very interesting to me. I have bought at least six Winchester lever actions and two Model 42 in the last six months. I had focused on Browning Superposed before that. The older Winchester the better.

I grew up going to gun shows in the southeast with my dad. He’s 72 and we still enjoy buying. I went to a small show in the Atlanta area weekend before last. I bought a ’92 off a guys shoulder for his asking price which was half what Dad and I  thought it was worth. I like to think I am not losing money.   

Tommy Statham

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January 28, 2020 - 4:45 pm
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Old Logger said
So what are you doing about it? Have you ever taken your kids or grandkids to a gun show? (hopefully a small one at first so they don’t get bored) How about a Cowboy Action Shoot, or a S.A.S.S? Have you taken them trap or skeet shooting? Did you get them in a firearms safety course? Hunter education course? Take them to the range? Bird hunting? Small game? What about the neighbor kids?   

These are excellent points to consider. Another that comes to mind is that with the proliferation of “Classic” TV networks today (most are available over-the-air for free), why not spend time with our young children or grandchildren watching some of the ’50’s and ’60’s western shows that fill today’s airwaves? Start them YOUNG. This is how many of us first gained an interest in our hobby.

I have a good friend (a very active member of this forum) who has related stories of gathering together the neighborhood kids back in the day and taking them out to the range or the desert for a day of shooting.

These are the types of activities that can, in the longer term of course, contribute to a continued interest in the gun collecting hobby.

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January 28, 2020 - 6:00 pm
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tsbccut said

I have a good friend (a very active member of this forum) who has related stories of gathering together the neighborhood kids back in the day and taking them out to the range or the desert for a day of shooting. 

“Back in the day” I brought a .22 revolver into my Jr. High shop class to make a holster for it!  Sadly that day has past–so far past, it might have happened 100 yrs ago!  Today, inviting unrelated kids to do anything involving guns would probably lead to a police call at your house.  Today, I even wonder if the Boy Scouts are allowed to conduct any shooting programs.

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January 28, 2020 - 6:57 pm
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One thing I do is subscribe the youngsters in my family to Fur Fish and Game magazine. They all enjoy it. In the past month issue is a letter with a photo of a 9 year old who uses his legos to recreate scenes from the Lew and Charlie adventures. I’m pretty sure that kid will be carrying an interest in firearms and hunting into the future.

Shoot low boys. They're riding Shetland Ponies.

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January 28, 2020 - 11:25 pm
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I am one of the younger collectors in the hobby at 34. Here in Australia you have to be a member of an approved collectors association to hold a collectors licence. At our first meeting of the year on Monday, I was the youngest one there – by a big margin. I had a bloke congratulate me on being the youngest member he has seen at a meeting. I awkwardly had a laugh with him. Sadly it was true.

We are the minority but there are still a few of us that will keep the hobby alive in years to come. I look forward to the prices coming down. With the cost of housing and bringing up a family here, big dollar Winchesters are just not possible for young collectors at the moment.

I appreciate character, quality and love history. Old Winchesters are not the only ‘old’ things I am into. Don’t put all us ‘youngins’ in the same basket. I know how to drive a 4 speed, and tune the Holley on my Mach 1 Cool

Chris

A man can never have too many WINCHESTERS...

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January 28, 2020 - 11:59 pm
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Hello

There is almost nothing that we buy that turns into a “good investment.”  Cars, campers, boats, jewelry, art etc pretty much ALWAYS depreciate in value and yet we don’t sit around crying about it.   Even the “American dream” home is, for most people, a bad place to put money when you look at the 100% all in cost of the mortgage, insurance, taxes, upkeep, and repairs.  And THEN you have to go buy another place to live.

Winchesters for me are a hobby and certainly not something I planned on paying for anyones college tuition with.   It just is not anywhere near a quickly liquid commodity, and the risk involved with the potential return would never make it a smart place to put money with lofty expectations.  Yeah we all dream of making that one in a million secret yard sale steal that turns into 10’s of thousands of dollars but realistically that is rarely if ever going to happen.  We all love a good story but do many of us then step back and say “I screwed that person because the rifle was really worth MUCH more.”  

With regard to the younger people or millennials out there we do them a real disservice in selling them short as empty headed people with little appreciation for quality and value.  Remember that many of us were probably thought of the same way when we liked the Beatles or the Stones and didn’t care much for what our parents liked.  I am almost 65 and truly very lucky to have a large circle of great friends who are in the 30’s.  My wife and I adore them for their youthfulness and what they bring into our lives.  Many of the husbands in this group have seen my collection and they are stunned by the beauty of the guns, the warmth of the wood and the quality of the craftsmanship that created them.   To them they represent something missing so often in “modern” amenities.

I bought a lot of my +100 rifles between 2009 and 2013 and have “invested” pretty nicely into the 6 digit range of $$.  Obviously, I have been very fortunate to be able to afford that.  I have certainly slowed down because after all just how many do I need to have.  So far I have only sold 8 rifles and have scratched out about 5% return on the money spent for those guns.  Three of the rifles have been sold for a 10 to 30% loss.   Like I learned in my business dealings it is better to have a small piece of a bunch of opportunities than roll the dice on larger portions of fewer opportunities.

Just my opinions

Michael

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Model 1892 / Model 61 Collector, Research, Valuation

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January 29, 2020 - 1:07 am
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If I had made money on every gun I’ve owned I would be in the financial circles  with some of the high end sports stars earning $60,000,000.00 a year, but I’ve done okay and have really enjoyed the experience, and I’ve earned the bragging rights of having owned some very rare guns, I,ve got the pictures. Oh yea good luck to the Newer crowd, I bought My first collectable gun, a’93 Marlin delux, when I was 17, I’m now 71 and have never stopped. A few years back I had 1450 some Winchesters, now I’m down to about 150, but I’ve got to say they have been the single best investment I’ve made over the years, stocks, real estate, precious metals and other things included. So no one will ever convince Me there’s no future in this hobby, hell I even managed to convince My Wife. I think some day We ( long timers ) will look back and say “geez I shoulda bought some of those ugly black guns when they were cheap”.

W.A.C.A. life member, Marlin Collectors Assn. charter and life member, C,S.S.A. member and general gun nut.

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January 29, 2020 - 1:50 am
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Henry Mero said
I think some day We ( long timers ) will look back and say “geez I shoulda bought some of those ugly black guns when they were cheap”.  

“Some day” may not be so far away, if after the next election the Dems gain total control of Congress; THEN, as quickly as votes can be counted (unlike the blithering idiotic incompetence displayed by the Repubs when THEY had control, but didn’t know what to do with it!), the “assault weapons” ban will be back to stay for a long time, if not permanently.

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January 29, 2020 - 3:05 am
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I think gun collecting is going to survive long after what many old timers might think.

I started in the early(?) 90s and at the time I was told more than once that I started way too late.   I’ve had fun.  I’m still having fun.  I don’t buy a lot, and I don’t always get a great deal where price is concerned, but I do pay attention to demand, rarity, and condition with emphasis ordinarily on eye appeal.

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January 29, 2020 - 4:01 am
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jwm94 said
I think gun collecting is going to survive long after what many old timers might think.

I started in the early(?) 90s and at the time I was told more than once that I started way too late.   I’ve had fun.  I’m still having fun.  I don’t buy a lot, and I don’t always get a great deal where price is concerned, but I do pay attention to demand, rarity, and condition with emphasis ordinarily on eye appeal.  

I started 50 years ago. Bought and sold a ton since.

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January 29, 2020 - 4:48 am
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The high condition guns are still bringing good money.  Here’s a few examples that most recently sold on GB.  Would these have gone for more money 5-10 years ago?  Opinions please.

https://www.gunbroker.com/item/852934532

https://www.gunbroker.com/item/852080102

https://www.gunbroker.com/item/851429008

https://www.gunbroker.com/item/851539278

Don

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January 29, 2020 - 5:17 am
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I think these would have brought more 10 years ago, but not 5.   In my opinion, the market has changed considerably  in just the past 5 years.   Personally, I  think the 1894 deluxe would have been in the $10 to $12K range 5 or 6 years ago. I bought a 1916 vintage .38-55 carbine in Denver about 10 years ago, not as nice as the one in the photo and paid $4,000 for it.  Taking that into consideration, the auction carbine went for a very reasonable price.

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January 29, 2020 - 3:11 pm
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  Don’s post shows four good examples from two quality sellers. The same gun can sell for wholesale from one seller or retail from another depending on reputation and marketing skills. The thing I have noticed at the gun shows I’ve attended is a lack of sales, when you walk the shows you see lower attendance and less money being counted. When the dealers sell less they buy less. My concern is lack of liquidity, lack of active buyers. I think a gun value book from 2009 compared to 2019 will show a drop in value, what it won’t tell you is how marketable a particular make, model, configuration, and condition is. The two sellers in the post are in touch with the market and know what they can sell. A collector that happens to own a gun that’s not in demand may take a bigger hit in this market. If your collecting and concerned with liquidity you have to consider how marketable your purchase is, or just have fun with your hobby. T/R                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

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January 29, 2020 - 3:31 pm
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clarence said

“Some day” may not be so far away, if after the next election the Dems gain total control of Congress; THEN, as quickly as votes can be counted (unlike the blithering idiotic incompetence displayed by the Repubs when THEY had control, but didn’t know what to do with it!), the “assault weapons” ban will be back to stay for a long time, if not permanently.  

Just look what’s happening in Virginia.

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January 29, 2020 - 4:09 pm
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Chayns1969, tries to buy great guns at reasonable prices.  That gives he and his potential customer a chance to make some money.  It may not be the profit we were used to 10 years ago, but there is still some meat left on the bone for future sellers and/or collectors.  Notice he NEVER puts a reserve on any of his auction guns.  He feels people are much more apt to bid on a gun, because it starts everyone out at the bottom of the ladder, therefor he gets a lot of bids.   He understands that a gun may not sell for what he paid for it, but he’s willing to take that chance  Most of the time it pays off; once in a while it doesn’t.  I’ve said this many times before, people collect because they love collecting.  Makes no difference whether its pop bottle caps or firearms.  Just so happens, our collecting habits can be Very expensive at times.  2019 was a bad year for me personally, as I  lost several very close friends who’s gun collections were huge.  I had known some of these guys for over 50 years and we had collected since we were in our early 20’s.  We gun showed together, bought, sold and traded with one another all those years and watched our collections grow.   What they left behind were some extremely high quality, historic firearms and frontier memorabilia.  Their widows are now left to deal with literally hundreds of guns and other stuff.  Many of these guns are five and six figure pieces.  Where are they going to find buyers for these things.  Collecting has always been a passion for me, but at my age I don’t want to spend money on high dollar guns.  Who would I sell them too?

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