Here is a good example of the difficulty.  SN 536224 was offered by Carol Watson Auction in March of this year.  Sn 536223 is alive and well BUT it is in France!   Click on the VERY thin image below to see the spreadsheet entry.

Michael

TXGunNut said
Consecutive serial numbers mean little to me but that could be because all of my examples are spaced many thousands apart. I can see the value of looking for consecutive (or close) SN’s because you are familiar with a gun of that era and have one to compare prospects with. It also keeps you looking, which of course is part of the fun. No telling what you’ll find while you’re perusing the listings. My most interesting guns have come along while I was looking for something else, if I hadn’t been looking I wouldn’t have found them. I don’t know if surveys exist because someone was looking for something or if the quest for something was inspired by a survey.  Yes, I’m pretty sure the main purpose of a survey is to gather data for a statistical analysis but it’s good to have fun along the way.

 

Mike  

Mike,

I started working on the Model 1892 because the only information regarding caliber and configuration variations was generated by Madis some 60 years ago.  In the short time I had been collecting when I started I had noted discrepancies with what was published and little factual information that went beyond “I think I read some place” or “somebody told me”.  Being a science oriented guy that just was not going to work for me.  Soooo.. I decided to create a spread sheet and started gathering my own “data” from the myriad of websites and auction houses that listed Model 1892 rifles.  As time went by (Play it again Sam) I began searching out museum collections and visited Leroy Merz a couple times and cataloged his inventory.  All it takes is a few hours each and every day and several years and you end up with a pretty darn good of what a rifle “ought to” look like for any specific serial number range.  You also find out just how much variation there can be within small SN ranges for what was done by Winchester.  My favorite example is near the end of 1927 and into mid 1928 three different tang stamp styles are found on the Model 92’s! 

And because life must become more complicated, or at least for me it does, I then began working on the Model 61 .22 caliber rifles.  The books by Schwing are excellent for this model but they definitely lacked in defining the percentage of production for the various caliber and barrel configurations.  Thus another spreadsheet was needed.  One very satisfying result of that work has been the identification of the rampant fake production of single chamber rifles that started out as standard rifles.  I have definitely broken a few hearts of some collectors when I tell them that their rifle is not original and thus worth LOTS less than what they spent on it.  Hopefully it has slowed the practice as I have talked with several auction houses and informed them of who the most likely people are and that I continue to identify and post fake guns on several forums.  I make it infinitely clear how being part of this activity is bad for everyone and that I know of several serious 61 collectors who will not bid on rifles any longer because of the practice.  

I most certainly have learned an amazing amount from both of these efforts.  Some of it has driven purchasing choices as a result.  I have met and talked to guys around the world who happily help me with information from their collecting and buying.  These surveys are only possible with the help of others.  There really is a limit as to what my wonderful wife will put up with as I sit at the computer

Glad to always help

Michael