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As a newer collector trying to learn all I can. One question often comes to mind. When, if ever does rarity alone trump condition?? In reveiwing a number of publications, reviewing auction house results, attending gun shows, communicating with other collectors,etc. It seems that the number one factor when it comes to the value of any particular Winchester is condition.
Every once in a while, I’m sure every collector runs into that “one of a kind” rarity that’s in not so good condition. Is it better to put your money into a “one of a kind” rare model in 40-50% condition if you run across one, or invest in a 90+ condition example of a more common configuration?
Thanks,
Al
Generally speaking, the condition v. rarity is personal preference; buy what you like. As long as you like it then you will be happy.
If it’s a “one of a kind” or a one of one, then mathematically speaking, you will not find a better one than that one. Standard guns in high condition are relatively abundant.
Condition does trump everything else but if there are an extremely low number of rifles out there in a certain configuration they do have great value. I guess that is where research comes in to try and determine exactly how rare something is. And rare is such an overworked term on Gunbroker and other places that you really have to educate yourself. You will see half magazine 1894 rifles described as “rare” by a seller which they certainly are not,just less common than standard configuration. I have an 1894 short rifle takedown with a 20 inch lightweight barrel and 8 3/8 inch forend in about 60% condition, it has been well hunted but not abused. Some collectors who prize condition over everything else might not give it a second look. But I figure how long would you look to find one in 90% plus condition? You might never find one in your lifetime at least that was for sale. Personally If I don’t have a rifle in a certain configuration I would buy a lower condition example as a place holder until a better example comes along. And the fact that they aren’t making any more of them comes into play. With a limited supply and increasing number of Winchester enthusiasts, value can only go up. Just look at the prices being paid now for standard pre 64 carbines in high condition compared to 20 years ago. As far as an almost “one of a kind” rifle, condition takes a back seat to rarity. A friend has an 1886 in .45/90 with an extra heavy octagon barrel. the gun is mostly patina with decent wood but his research indicates they made only 160 odd extra heavy 1886 rifles. Of the 160 odd how many have survived over 100 years intact? I don’t think you could pry the 86 out of his hands even though it has little original finish remaining. My 2 cents.
Another consideration is what you plan to do with the specimen. Do you want it to sit on display in a fine glass case, hang it on the wall, or use it for hunting and taking it out to the range. (There are some great posts here about an old 1876 and the game it is still taking.)
To me these guns were made to be used. I would hate to spend five figures on a museum piece and never be able to shoot it for fear of lowering it’s value. On the other hand, a well used old gun with an unusual configuration (to me that means “special order”) is a joy to reload for and take out to the range and experiment. Extra length barrels, in some models, are a rarity and fun to shoot. Single and double set triggers are also unusual, especially in good working order. Take-down barrels are another interesting collectable interest. First year of production is another area of interest.
In my younger days I developed a preference for the Models 1886 and 1892. 1886’s were rare and pricey, so I ended up acquiring many 1892’s. I now have a carbine in every caliber made and at least one rifle in every caliber made, though not yet in every barrel configuration (round vs. octagon plus take-down) made – and one made in 1892.
The best part is that every one of my Winchesters gets out to the range from time to time. And then there are the reloading variations. I have developed different loads of the same caliber for my 1892’s vs. my 1973’s and SAA’s, with the latter two sharing the same, lighter, loads than the 1892’s.
A final consideration (for me) is “antique” vs. “modern”. I’ve gotten tired of filling out the same FFL forms over and over and a couple of years ago started concentrating on pre-1899 dates of manufacture only. But then, that is the subject for an entirely separate thread!
Wayne
"This is the West, sir. When the legend becomes fact, print the legend."
When I started collecting I was intrigued by the higher condition of the standard rifles which are so common. Then the hankering for a rifle which was different than the others that you always see seem to be more appealing to me. And besides, the grading of a guns % condition is a pissing match into the wind in many cases. I feel that it can be a +/- 10 accuracy at best. As a result, the approximate value is going to be a large target. As others have stated the true rarity of a unique rifle has a strong influence on the potential value of the gun. If only 20 were made do you really care if it is a 65 or 45% condition? The likelihood of having a chance at another one in your life time may be almost zero. I have some very rare rifles and have paid some definite high prices for them but “in my opinion” they are worth every cent. They only become more valuable in my estimation if you have multiple examples of very unique guns.
To me it comes down to this. I would spend more for a Model 1892 sporting rifle that has a 21″ take down, half octagon barrel, with a plain pistol grip stock than a 95% full octagon, full mag standard sporting rifle any day of the week.
Michael
Model 1892 / Model 61 Collector, Research, Valuation
What about Rarity as in only 5000 !895 Flatsides , but a re-finished 30 US standard RBR,? (a nice older refinish . I dont even know if older re-finish matters much, I know most collectors hate anything altered) I enjoy shooting it on occasion , and it was reasonable $ in my estimation about $1300 US
Phil
twobit said
When I started collecting I was intrigued by the higher condition of the standard rifles which are so common. Then the hankering for a rifle which was different than the others that you always see seem to be more appealing to me. And besides, the grading of a guns % condition is a pissing match into the wind in many cases. I feel that it can be a +/- 10 accuracy at best. As a result, the approximate value is going to be a large target. As others have stated the true rarity of a unique rifle has a strong influence on the potential value of the gun. If only 20 were made do you really care if it is a 65 or 45% condition? The likelihood of having a chance at another one in your life time may be almost zero. I have some very rare rifles and have paid some definite high prices for them but “in my opinion” they are worth every cent. They only become more valuable in my estimation if you have multiple examples of very unique guns.
To me it comes down to this. I would spend more for a Model 1892 sporting rifle that has a 21″ take down, half octagon barrel, with a plain pistol grip stock than a 95% full octagon, full mag standard sporting rifle any day of the week.
Michael
Michael,
The more I hear, and think about it, the more I tend to agree.
Al
I”m a rarity AND condition guy. But like it was said earlier, do what trips YOUR trigger, it’s your collection. Each of us get excited about different things. I like early/low serial numbers for example, so I would be more inclined to pony up for my 70% 2000 serial number 73 carbine, rather than a later 3rd model 500K serial number in 90%. However, I also like high condition so at times I go that way too. If it’s a genuinely scarce to rare gun, I will sacrifice condition to have it. If it’s like most of the others out there, but I still want one, then it must have the higher condition. But for me, rarity trumps slightly over condition. I love knowing that there only a handful of “whatever” in the country. But, that’s just me.
January 26, 2011
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This topic has been discussed on the forum countless times……but I still enjoy hearing everyone’s opinions. I guess I have a little bit of both – higher condition and also some unique examples to spice up the collection a bit. My goal is usually something like Tony said: The closer the rifle gets to standard, the higher the condition needs to be……….and the more scarce the rifle is, the lower condition I will accept. Make sense? It does to me.
Bottom line is – buy what you like, and like what you buy. Make sure that if you find out later you spent a little too much on a gun, that you don’t mind keeping it for a while to let the value catch up to what you spent.
I do try to have rifles that have at least one out of the norm feature if possible. Its a lot more fun to pull guns out of the safe and explain why you bought this particular gun, rather than pointing out one standard sporting rifle after another.
At the end of the day, I too prefer a 70% honest gun with a feature or two than a 90% Plain Jane model………but we always hope to get the best of both worlds if the pocketbook will support the opportunity.
~Gary~
There was mention of something in “The Winchester Book” to the point that a collection should have guns in a variety of conditions. That has always stuck with me since I read it and it seems to have a lot of wisdom behind it.
Brad
Flayderman shows in order that demand, rarity, and condition are the three most important factors where value is concerned. Obviously, the more rare and high conditioned guns are going to be out of reach of the typical collector, and those guns in poor, fair, and good condition are going to have less appeal for the typical collector as I see it. With this in mind, guns somewhere between very good to excellent condition with or without special features having demand would ordinarily, IMO, draw a bigger buying audience.
Here is a little article that I worked on that tries to put the condition/rarity thing in perspective. Just my opinion of course…………
Winchester Valuation Factors
“You never pay too much for a Winchester–sometimes you simply buy them a little early”…George Madis
Rarity – A collectible firearm’s value will generally be increased in inverse proportion to the number of pieces
manufactured along with any rare special-ordered features it may have.
Originality – The piece must have all of the attributes of the weapon as it was received from the factory when
new. Refinished steel and/or wood surfaces, altered components, cut down or replaced barrel, magazine, stock,
replaced screws, etc., will materially diminish collector value.
Desirability – The model and configuration has a large impact on the gun’s desirability and therefore its value:
i.e.: a Henry versus a Winchester – Lee model. Also, certain features are desirable and will sometimes even
outweigh rarity. A .44 caliber rifle or carbine will always be valued higher than the .38 caliber which will
always be valued higher than a .32 caliber Winchester with all other features being the same. An octagon
barreled, full magazine, crescent butt configuration will always have greater market value than a round barreled,
half magazine shotgun butt configuration with all other attributes and features being equal.
Condition – Most dealers agree that condition is what sells in today’s market place. Values will span a 10 fold
range depending on the percentage of original condition. A piece that is in 100% original condition will be
worth at least 10 times more than a piece that is in 10% original condition. However, this value equation is not
linear. The value increase between an 85% piece and a 95% piece being significantly greater than 10%!
Age – the older the piece the greater the value given similar model characteristics. A First model 1873
Winchester will always be worth more than a Second model which will always be worth more than a Third
model having the same condition and factory specifications. An antique (pre-1899) will be worth more than a
non-antique (post-1898).
Factory Documentation – Factory records which list a gun’s configuration are available only within certain
serial ranges. Generally, but not in all cases, a Winchester which falls into the documented (or “letterable”)
serial range has more value than an identical piece which is outside the range.
Historical Significance – A piece with authentic documentation evidencing a role in an historical event will
always have significantly more value than a similar piece w/o historical significance. Values can be increased
as much as 100 fold. An 1873 Springfield carbine worth $2,500 might bring $250,000 if it can be documented
as being present in the Custer fight at the little Big Horn River in 1879. However, historical documentation is
difficult to prove and can be faked easier than physically altering the weapon itself!
Provenance – A firearm that has an irrefutable record of ownership will have more value than an identical
piece without such provenance and the more prominent the former owners, the more the value.
Current Market – Collector likes and dislikes vary over time. Some items which were most desirable last year
may give way to different items this year. This is the least predictable and most difficult factor in determining
the value of any collector piece. The high end collector fraternity can be very thinly populated at times. It only
takes two collectors to escalate prices at auction to astronomical heights making recent auction results a poor
WACA Life Benefactor Member
NRA Life Member
Rick,
I totally agree with everything you stated.
It looks like it got cut off at the end thou.
Bob
WACA Life Member--- NRA Life Member---- Cody Firearms member since 1991 Researching the Winchester 1873's
Email: [email protected]
Bob:
Not sure why that happened. I’ll try again:
Winchester Valuation Factors
“You never pay too much for a Winchester–sometimes you simply buy them a little early”…George Madis
Rarity – A collectible firearm’s value will generally be increased in inverse proportion to the number of pieces
manufactured along with any rare special-ordered features it may have.
Originality – The piece must have all of the attributes of the weapon as it was received from the factory when
new. Refinished steel and/or wood surfaces, altered components, cut down or replaced barrel, magazine, stock,
replaced screws, etc., will materially diminish collector value.
Desirability – The model and configuration has a large impact on the gun’s dRarityesirability and therefore its value:
i.e.: a Henry versus a Winchester – Lee model. Also, certain features are desirable and will sometimes even
outweigh rarity. A .44 caliber rifle or carbine will always be valued higher than the .38 caliber which will
always be valued higher than a .32 caliber Winchester with all other features being the same. An octagon
barreled, full magazine, crescent butt configuration will always have greater market value than a round barreled,
half magazine shotgun butt configuration with all other attributes and features being equal.
Condition – Most dealers agree that condition is what sells in today’s market place. Values will span a 10 fold
range depending on the percentage of original condition. A piece that is in 100% original condition will be
worth at least 10 times more than a piece that is in 10% original condition. However, this value equation is not
linear. The value increase between an 85% piece and a 95% piece being significantly greater than 10%!
Age – the older the piece the greater the value given similar model characteristics. A First model 1873
Winchester will always be worth more than a Second model which will always be worth more than a Third
model having the same condition and factory specifications. An antique (pre-1899) will be worth more than a
non-antique (post-1898).
Factory Documentation – Factory records which list a gun’s configuration are available only within certain
serial ranges. Generally, but not in all cases, a Winchester which falls into the documented (or “letterable”)
serial range has more value than an identical piece which is outside the range.
Historical Significance – A piece with authentic documentation evidencing a role in an historical event will
always have significantly more value than a similar piece w/o historical significance. Values can be increased
as much as 100 fold. An 1873 Springfield carbine worth $2,500 might bring $250,000 if it can be documented
as being present in the Custer fight at the little Big Horn River in 1879. However, historical documentation is
difficult to prove and can be faked easier than physically altering the weapon itself!
Provenance – A firearm that has an irrefutable record of ownership will have more value than an identical
piece without such provenance and the more prominent the former owners, the more the value.
Current Market – Collector likes and dislikes vary over time. Some items which were most desirable last year
may give way to different items this year. This is the least predictable and most difficult factor in determining
the value of any collector piece. The high end collector fraternity can be very thinly populated at times. It only
takes two collectors to escalate prices at auction to astronomical heights making recent auction results a poor
guideline.
Complicating the process is the fact that the weight given to each of the above factors will vary by model and
by manufacturer which makes it impossible to condense these factors to a universal mathematical equation.
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NRA Life Member
And here it is all wrapped up in one example! 18″ barreled Model 1894 .25-35 with short wood forearm & original factory supplied carbine 44-A 
rear sight in take-down variation w/ lightweight barrel, lightweight factory shortened butt-stock, hard rubber butt-plate & factory sling eyes……………
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NRA Life Member
Rick,
That is a very nice rifle. I am quite surprised though that the rear sight is not set back further toward the receiver/take down ring.
Michael
Model 1892 / Model 61 Collector, Research, Valuation
Rick Hill said
And here it is all wrapped up in one example! 18″ barreled Model 1894 .25-35 with short wood forearm & original factory supplied carbine 44-A
rear sight in take-down variation w/ lightweight barrel, lightweight factory shortened butt-stock, hard rubber butt-plate & factory sling eyes……………
Thanks Rick. Beautiful gun, rare and with condition!!
Michael:
Sorry that it has taken so long to answer your question regarding the rear sight placement on the 18″ short rifle. I believe that the sight placement is due to the fact that it was special ordered with the 44A carbine rear sight rather than the longer base # 22 series that would have normally been on a rifle of this vintage – who knows? I sold the rifle about 11/2 years’ ago and I never measured the dovetail position but I assume it was at 4”…………..
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NRA Life Member
Hello Rick,
I own several short barrel 1892’s and a couple 1894’s and they all had the rear sight set further back toward the receiver to lengthen the sight radius. I just found it interesting that this rifle did not follow suite. Nice rifle with a great assemblage of features.
Thanks
Michael
Model 1892 / Model 61 Collector, Research, Valuation
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