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Condition, uncommonality, and the future Winchester of desire
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April 20, 2025 - 3:31 am
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IMG_3645.jpegImage EnlargerIMG_3651.jpegImage EnlargerIMG_3646.jpegImage EnlargerIMG_3647.jpegImage EnlargerIMG_3649.jpegImage EnlargerIMG_3648.jpegImage EnlargerIt has been mentioned more than a few times on this forum that the future of this hobby is in the high condition Winchesters, the 97 to 100% stuff, and if there are special order features, that’s a plus.  (Personally, I’m always a bit leery of the 99 or 100% stuff as I’m fearful of a refinish, and the 90 to 95% stuff is attractive as the cost to acquire is significantly less, as are the odds of a high quality refinish).

The really high end stuff is chased by investors with deep pockets.  Only to change hands to another investor with deeper pockets.

An example of how society now is.  The very wealthy, and the downtrodden, and not much in between.  Those in between are dwindling, and more and more of them are college educated and anti 2 A.  And there will always be a market for the rough sub $1500 Winchester for the downtrodden.  These won’t appreciate at all, or at least anywhere near inflation.

BUT, where do you draw the line between the really good stuff and something in respectable condition, but uncommon, realizing that 98% example probably does actually exist, but it won’t be offered for sale to you anytime soon if at all?

Such as this Winchester 1894 carbine from 1902 in .32-40, a respectable example, but nowhere near 95%+.  Do you pass it up, or go for it?

I think I know the answer already…you should have blinders and look only at CONDITION, and then once you find CONDITION, you look at everything else, and anything out of the norm is a plus.  Even if it means your collection has nothing in it other than run of the mill stuff in it, but every one of those run of the mill Winchesters has condition.

I am interested in what others think.

(Note:  The 1905 patented Marbles tang sight cannot be original to this 1902 production carbine, but a later tang sight is appealing to me even if historically inaccurate, as long as it’s not new/modern production).

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April 20, 2025 - 3:50 am
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I say buy and collect what you like. Money $ value isn’t always everything. 

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To answer your question I have a very similar vintage rifle in somewhat lesser condition. You may recall seeing it in my “Tale of Two Rifles” article awhile back. I may be able to afford some of the higher condition at the lower end of the price spectrum but I heed the wise words I heard years ago; “Buy what you like, like what you buy”. I’m also not confident in my ability to spot a fake but I’m confident they’re not hiding among the guns with “character”. Thank goodness we all have slightly different tastes and likes. The high end of our hobby has certainly been entertaining lately.

 

Mike

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April 20, 2025 - 4:01 am
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I buy what I like…but it’s been argued that’s not the best approach and a few really high end examples are probably where the future is due to waning interest in this mid range stuff.

I listed this specific example as it’s at least uncommon, you don’t see it every day, but do you just do without as it’s not the very best out there as far as condition.

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April 20, 2025 - 5:38 am
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Ian,  You are among friends. All of us share a common interest in a much broader range of firearms than it might seem. 

Scratch even the most diehard “pre-64 Winchesters built in New Haven or not at all, 100% minimum condition” WACA member and you will often discover, very close to the surface, an admirer of more than a couple of Browning guns, typically the Auto-5 and the Superposed but not only those.  Browning and Winchester are really two faces of the same icon,  since 1885 and now likely to the end. 

I love to see the magnificent collections of Winchesters in mint condition that some of my fellows have spent a lifetime accumulating.  Those collections teach me what those guns looked like when new or almost new, But I don’t aspire to own any of them and if an unknown rich uncle left me a Winchester collection worth a king’s ransom, I’d flog them all for enough cash to buy a brand new “FOB WICHITA”, optioned out Cessna Turbo 182 Skylane plus a fat enough reserve to cover, for my estimated remaining sentient lifetime:  hangar rental, hull insurance, annual inspections,  oil changes and spectography, TBO reserve, routine engine, airframe and avionics maintenance, digital weather and map services….. and all the other reasons I don’t fly anymore, much less own even a piece of an aircraft. That’s me, although I do collect guns. 

For others, it’s a Lamborghini Countach they found in a New England barn with 500 kilos on the clock. For the younger or the older and delusional, beautiful redheaded women and other devastatingly expensive things that lead to death on the side of the road.

My point is most of us like guns, shooting and hunting, and collecting is a form of hunting. Most of us are not single-minded enough nor have enough disposable income to accumulate rare and virtually new 160 year old Winchesters because that requires competing with the heirs of great industrial or financial fortunes. The late William Batterman Ruger accumulated a collection of arms worthy of a Czar of All the Russias. Bidding against him was [urinating] up a rope and just as productive. 

Machts nichts, bubele!  As Mike says and truly, collect what you like. I have bought guns I couldn’t shoot without wiping off value. Those I have shined on down the road.  Owning them was like chewing bubble gum. The flavor didn’t last. 

I have caused more than one Serious Collector to swell up like a toad from skyrocketing blood pressure and heavy breathing — all because he showed me his jewel of jewels [in one case, a beautiful Alexander Henry single loader] and I suggested we take it to the range. 

If I can’t shoot it, I don’t want it. What I like about WACA is there are very advanced collectors who will  find common ground with me over technical details, even though our views of the broader subject differ. 

I’m reminded of an O. Henry story titled Makes the Whole World Kin. A cat burglar was surprised to find a rich man home in his luxury New York apartment. They discovered each suffered from arthritis and began swapping remedies. The burglar crawled back out the window without taking anything and the apartment dweller went back to sleep. 

- Bill 

 

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April 20, 2025 - 2:37 pm
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Ian – 

As Bill notes, you are definitely among friends.  Your post of the M1894 .32-40 SRC serves as a fine example of what you are referring to.  It reminds me a bit of the M1894 .32 Special SRC I posted on another thread recently.  With your carbine, I think the condition is nice enough that most here would be happy to own it.  My carbine did not have near the condition, but that was my point – I found it appealing because of the condition – the story the carbine told.  This was an example of buying a piece solely because I liked and not having any thought or concern whether anyone else would like it.  Acting upon this line of thinking is made much easier when the price of such pieces often approaches the inconsequential.  

Our circumstances vary greatly here.  This can influence our attitude about the, “downrange value” of a piece.  For example, for a great many of my pieces here, I have a difficult time picturing myself parting with them.  I’m sure when I’m gone, my wife can imagine herself parting with them.  I don’t want to leave her stuck with items few want.  Far better would be items there is a healthy (ideally stiff) competition for.  

THANKFULLY, a significant portion of what I have are WINCHESTERS.  I have collected what I like.  And again, THANKFULLY, I like Winchesters.  But I also like a variety of other brands.  For example, I like Ross rifles.  Ross rifles are at the other end of the spectrum from Winchester when it comes to numbers of collectors.  And, almost no new collectors coming on board.  Of what Ross collectors remain extant, nearly all stop breeding decades (scores of years) ago.  Fortunately, I have been able to acquire some fabulous Ross rifles for a fraction of what a similar Winchester (i.e. rarity, condition, special features, presentation rifle) would cost.  I like them a lot.  

Another area of mine is Marlins.  We’ve talked recently about Marlins here.  I like Marlins.  I like them better than many here but would not go so far as to say they are better or more desirable than Winchester.  I really think Winchester consistently surpassed Marlins (vintage rifles of course).  But still I like them.  Marlin does not have the following Winchester has.  I also see more new Winchester collectors entering than I see new Marlin collectors coming on board.  I know of many examples of Winchester collectors still breeding; not as many among Marlin collectors.  I’ve been very tempted on some fancy Marlins over the years (and in recent times as well).  I have held back on pursuing higher dollar Marlins for the reasons I just suggested.  

While I don’t foresee a jump in interest in Marlins, I have been interested to observe other non-Winchester brands surge forward in recent times.  This of course has happened within Winchester rifles too.  There are many Winchester models that didn’t used to be considered collectable and that sure has changed.  Previously, I have mentioned that in my early years you couldn’t hardly give a .25-20 away.  That has changed.  Similarly, I remember a time (long period of years) when there was zero interest in Whitney-Kennedy rifles.  That has changed a lot in recent years.  And Bullard rifles have also surged forward (thank you Mark Douglas).  

I’ll be interested to read others thoughts on this topic.

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April 20, 2025 - 4:23 pm
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And then there’s the matter of what to do with UNcollectable Winchesters — say, a legitimate Model 53 with a good bore that has been hot salt blue re-finished by some Neanderthal with a hot tank and a motorized wire wheel, then allowed to mellow in a damp shed next to 200 pound bags of high Nitrogen fertilizer. 

1. Part it out of its misery? Or

2. Send it to Mark Douglas or Turnbull? Or

3. Take it to your trusted gunsmith and ask him to reshape the blurred edges as best he can, weld up the pits, restore the over-polished flats to approximate factory reflectivity, and re-blue. Replace the screws  and maybe the wood. Mark the underside of the tang with the date and name of the restorer and the fact of restoration, for your own self-esteem.

I think legitimate, accurate restorations are a good thing as long as the restored piece is clearly and permanently marked as such, including the identity of the restorer. I believe these guns are collectible to some and have a legitimate part to play, particularly those models the best specimens of which are locked away in permanent institutional collections.

Accurate and clearly disclosed restorations are a separate category of the hobby that spare small but important pieces of evidence from being lost to history. We all know old Winchesters in high condition tend to stay that way, even if the high condition has to be recreated. 

- Bill 

 

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"I have seen wicked men and fools, a great many of both, and I believe they both get paid in the end, but the fools first." -- David Balfour, narrator and protagonist of the novel, Kidnapped, by Robert Louis Stevenson.

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April 20, 2025 - 10:00 pm
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Zebulon said
And then there’s the matter of what to do with UNcollectable Winchesters — say, a legitimate Model 53 with a good bore that has been hot salt blue re-finished by some Neanderthal with a hot tank and a motorized wire wheel, then allowed to mellow in a damp shed next to 200 pound bags of high Nitrogen fertilizer. 

1. Part it out of its misery? Or

2. Send it to Mark Douglas or Turnbull? Or

3. Take it to your trusted gunsmith and ask him to reshape the blurred edges as best he can, weld up the pits, restore the over-polished flats to approximate factory reflectivity, and re-blue. Replace the screws  and maybe the wood. Mark the underside of the tang with the date and name of the restorer and the fact of restoration, for your own self-esteem.

I think legitimate, accurate restorations are a good thing as long as the restored piece is clearly and permanently marked as such, including the identity of the restorer. I believe these guns are collectible to some and have a legitimate part to play, particularly those models the best specimens of which are locked away in permanent institutional collections.

Accurate and clearly disclosed restorations are a separate category of the hobby that spare small but important pieces of evidence from being lost to history. We all know old Winchesters in high condition tend to stay that way, even if the high condition has to be recreated. 

  

I don’t have use for a rifle that would see, “hard” use.  But I know there are those that do.  Situations where you can’t baby the rifle and it’s going to end up showing signs of significant use.  In such cases, a rifle that has been hot tank reblued with tap holes and undersanded at the tangs might be just the ticket. If it shoots with decent accuracy and functions reliability, the cosmetics may be of little impact.  For me, every time I have put some sort of minor mark on a rifle, I wince.  The type rifle Bill describes can be a vehicle to enjoying the outdoors with less stress.  

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April 20, 2025 - 10:34 pm
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I am sure I am going to rub people the wrong way as I am probably “abby normal” but a large chunk of my collection are “reference rifles” used for component study and evolutionary changes.  It is not that I don’t like to shoot them, it is just that basically most of them are all the same caliber and shoot similarly.  I don’t need to drag a Winchester Museum Reference Collection firearm, aluminum tags and all, into the field as that is not it’s primary purpose in my house.

If it helps, I do believe I have shot every single Winchester 52 I own, just can’t seem to keep my sticky paws off of those jewels though……

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Jeff,  you didn’t assemble your reference collection so you could compete for the Weatherby World Champion Squirrel Hunter Trophy, and I can easily imagine boredom setting in before you’d gotten five percent of those little rifles sighted in. 

Your many fans, some waiting more patiently than others, live for the day your next definitive reference book comes to hand. We all understand you could not possibly do what you do so well without spending weeks and months disassembling and studying each of the many variations of the Winchester rimfire models about which you write. Your note taking alone would be a formidable task for any scholar. 

We don’t expect you have time to shoot. In fact, some of us, fearful you will drop off the twig before publishing an ultimate reference for their favorite model, would even frown on your wasting time at the range or in the field when you could be researching and writing instead. Noblesse oblige

Still, it pleases me to read your Model 52 collection hasn’t lost its capacity to fascinate. From the historical record, it did the same for John Olin and my very modest collection of one (1) still does for me. 

- Bill 

 

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"I have seen wicked men and fools, a great many of both, and I believe they both get paid in the end, but the fools first." -- David Balfour, narrator and protagonist of the novel, Kidnapped, by Robert Louis Stevenson.

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April 21, 2025 - 5:01 am
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I have always looked for the “Unusual Winchester” and as a result I have a few qustionable and undocumentable items.  My collection lacts a lot of high condition and letterable items.  This does not endear me to the “Purest Collector” and will probably add doubt to anything I wish to sell.  I did it my way and have no regrets.  It’s supposed to be “FUN”!  Right?  I do have 4 guns that Winchester never put into production.  Laugh  RDB  

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April 21, 2025 - 5:22 am
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And this is for Steve004. About Marlins. 

The only Marlin I own is a 1958 Mountie I always wanted and it is a really slick, finely made little repeater. It wears a Williams FP-39 and is a favorite. Impossibly expensive to make action design, of course. 

I think you fellows are broad-minded enough so I’ll say it out loud:  I honestly believe the Marlin rifles now coming out of North Carolina – and those that will eventually come out of that factory in time — are the best and highest form of the original Marlin designs ever produced. 

I’m fond enough of the brand to have owned several JM carbines and have seen enough of the prewar guns to understand they were finished to a higher standard of quality. 

But if you haven’t handled the new Model 1894 guns, you are in for a treat. In particular, the .44 magnum caliber barrels have lost their too-slow rate of twist and Micro-Groove rifling and are built with 300 grain cast lead in mind. The build and finish quality is superior to any Marlin I’ve seen that was made after 1950, at least.

For some bizarre reason, I want ….NEED.. my vision of an Urban Assault Rifle:  a Marlin 1894 .44 magnum/special caliber,  stainless steel with a laminated wood stock, rifle forearm cap, 24″ octagonal barrel, Skinner receiver sight and express front bead.  That full length magazine holds how many rounds? 

The Sandman just walked in…

- Bill 

 

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"I have seen wicked men and fools, a great many of both, and I believe they both get paid in the end, but the fools first." -- David Balfour, narrator and protagonist of the novel, Kidnapped, by Robert Louis Stevenson.

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April 21, 2025 - 5:05 pm
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JWA said
I am sure I am going to rub people the wrong way as I am probably “abby normal” but a large chunk of my collection are “reference rifles” used for component study and evolutionary changes.  It is not that I don’t like to shoot them, it is just that basically most of them are all the same caliber and shoot similarly.  I don’t need to drag a Winchester Museum Reference Collection firearm, aluminum tags and all, into the field as that is not it’s primary purpose in my house.

At first glance, Did I miss the Young Frankenstein reference?

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April 21, 2025 - 5:09 pm
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FRONKinSTEEN!!

- Bill 

 

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"I have seen wicked men and fools, a great many of both, and I believe they both get paid in the end, but the fools first." -- David Balfour, narrator and protagonist of the novel, Kidnapped, by Robert Louis Stevenson.

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April 21, 2025 - 5:11 pm
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Maverick said

JWA said

I am sure I am going to rub people the wrong way as I am probably “abby normal” but a large chunk of my collection are “reference rifles” used for component study and evolutionary changes.  It is not that I don’t like to shoot them, it is just that basically most of them are all the same caliber and shoot similarly.  I don’t need to drag a Winchester Museum Reference Collection firearm, aluminum tags and all, into the field as that is not it’s primary purpose in my house.

At first glance, Did I miss the Young Frankenstein reference?

  

My two all time Favorite movies… Blazing Saddles and Young Frankenstein CoolLaugh

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April 21, 2025 - 5:31 pm
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Ian,

A very good ask, on you’re part. IMO! A lot of great conversation generated here, and different perspectives all the way around. So many of us like more than just one brand, or even more than one model, of the Winchesters, that have been offered over the years. Then there’s the accoutrements that can be attributed to the different models. Different type collectors are all over this forum. I can truly identify and relate to many who post on here. Then there’s the WACA members that don’t post or partake in the forum, but read it and move on. 

I remember the older Collectors, buying up what they could, and with no electronic aids to help in research, or information that we might have available today, collectors change with time. I agree with the many who have said buy and collect what you like. That’s always been my mantra. Some buy to re sell for profit. It’s always nice to re coup you’re investment, no matter what level you’re on. That’s the business side of me. I have to like it to go after it. I have acquired collections, and moved pieces to pay for my purchase, operating on house money so to speak.

I like the src, that you posted, as it’s a tool well represented of it’s time, gone by. I also like the caliber, like many others do. Many of us die hard Winchester collectors, have earned our stripes, so to speak, and will go after what we like, not what the guy next to us likes. Although friends can be influential, as some relatives can be. Birds of a feather, so to speak. It’s fun to spend time with like people who get along and share hobbies with each other.

mrcvs said,

An example of how society now is. The very wealthy, and the downtrodden, and not much in between. Those in between are dwindling, and more and more of them are college educated and anti 2 A. And there will always be a market for the rough sub $1500 Winchester for the downtrodden. These won’t appreciate at all, or at least anywhere near inflation.

I like many others noticed this many years ago, as I saw this coming, and would discuss this with a few close friends and my late Brother in Law, who I did a lot with, and learned a lot from. With that in mind, I started switching up, and consolidated, changing gears as we all know, if the younger generation wasn’t gonna be interested, why be left holding the bag, or a bunch of stuff that others might not be interested in. I made several trades and even sold some pieces, to upgrade and acquire stuff to leave to my family. Don’t get me wrong, as I kept a lot also, but the high condition, hard to find, and or rare pieces also. A lot of double and triple of ones I had we’re being moved. Many other collectors we’re doing the same. I have no complaints, as it’s an enjoyable education, and it’s nice when you’re collection owes you nothing!Smile

Life changes, and we have to adapt. IMHO!Smile

Anthony

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April 21, 2025 - 11:09 pm
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Anthony said
Ian,

A very good ask, on you’re part. IMO! A lot of great conversation generated here, and different perspectives all the way around. So many of us like more than just one brand, or even more than one model, of the Winchesters, that have been offered over the years. Then there’s the accoutrements that can be attributed to the different models. Different type collectors are all over this forum. I can truly identify and relate to many who post on here. Then there’s the WACA members that don’t post or partake in the forum, but read it and move on. 

I remember the older Collectors, buying up what they could, and with no electronic aids to help in research, or information that we might have available today, collectors change with time. I agree with the many who have said buy and collect what you like. That’s always been my mantra. Some buy to re sell for profit. It’s always nice to re coup you’re investment, no matter what level you’re on. That’s the business side of me. I have to like it to go after it. I have acquired collections, and moved pieces to pay for my purchase, operating on house money so to speak.

I like the src, that you posted, as it’s a tool well represented of it’s time, gone by. I also like the caliber, like many others do. Many of us die hard Winchester collectors, have earned our stripes, so to speak, and will go after what we like, not what the guy next to us likes. Although friends can be influential, as some relatives can be. Birds of a feather, so to speak. It’s fun to spend time with like people who get along and share hobbies with each other.

mrcvs said,

An example of how society now is. The very wealthy, and the downtrodden, and not much in between. Those in between are dwindling, and more and more of them are college educated and anti 2 A. And there will always be a market for the rough sub $1500 Winchester for the downtrodden. These won’t appreciate at all, or at least anywhere near inflation.

I like many others noticed this many years ago, as I saw this coming, and would discuss this with a few close friends and my late Brother in Law, who I did a lot with, and learned a lot from. With that in mind, I started switching up, and consolidated, changing gears as we all know, if the younger generation wasn’t gonna be interested, why be left holding the bag, or a bunch of stuff that others might not be interested in. I made several trades and even sold some pieces, to upgrade and acquire stuff to leave to my family. Don’t get me wrong, as I kept a lot also, but the high condition, hard to find, and or rare pieces also. A lot of double and triple of ones I had we’re being moved. Many other collectors we’re doing the same. I have no complaints, as it’s an enjoyable education, and it’s nice when you’re collection owes you nothing!Smile

Life changes, and we have to adapt. IMHO!Smile

Anthony

  

Anthony – 

Your point is a very logical one and I applaud you for letting rational thinking be your guide.  I aspire to this Wink

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April 21, 2025 - 11:15 pm
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Zebulon said
And this is for Steve004. About Marlins. 

The only Marlin I own is a 1958 Mountie I always wanted and it is a really slick, finely made little repeater. It wears a Williams FP-39 and is a favorite. Impossibly expensive to make action design, of course. 

I think you fellows are broad-minded enough so I’ll say it out loud:  I honestly believe the Marlin rifles now coming out of North Carolina – and those that will eventually come out of that factory in time — are the best and highest form of the original Marlin designs ever produced. 

I’m fond enough of the brand to have owned several JM carbines and have seen enough of the prewar guns to understand they were finished to a higher standard of quality. 

But if you haven’t handled the new Model 1894 guns, you are in for a treat. In particular, the .44 magnum caliber barrels have lost their too-slow rate of twist and Micro-Groove rifling and are built with 300 grain cast lead in mind. The build and finish quality is superior to any Marlin I’ve seen that was made after 1950, at least.

For some bizarre reason, I want ….NEED.. my vision of an Urban Assault Rifle:  a Marlin 1894 .44 magnum/special caliber,  stainless steel with a laminated wood stock, rifle forearm cap, 24″ octagonal barrel, Skinner receiver sight and express front bead.  That full length magazine holds how many rounds? 

The Sandman just walked in…

  

Bill – I haven’t kept up with modern Marlins for many years.  I have a M1894 .44 magnum carbine.  I bought it in the early 1980’s and it was used at that time.  I killed many deer with it but was never impressed with the accuracy.  Fortunately, the distance of the shots I took were not far.  It is heartening to hear that the current crop of Marlin rifles are looking favorable.  

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April 22, 2025 - 2:34 am
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Steve, just go pick one of the new ones up and see what you think. They are not the same. 

I bought my son one of the 357 caliber carbines sometime in the late Nineteen Eighties or very early Nineties. It was reliable but it’s accuracy was only fair. My father-in-law borrowed it to kill a doe that was raiding his vegetable garden. [I sold it off after that and replaced it for young son with a 25-06 A-bolt Stalker with a B.O.S.S. device. Loaded down to .250 – 3000 velocities, it satisfied all our accuracy desires.]

I may be losing my sense of good taste in old age but the new Marlin I could also go for is the first one they ran in Mayodan because it was such a hot seller before the prior owners shut down all production: that stainless short 1895 45/70. It was featured in the film Wind River. They still can’t build them fast enough.  

Of course I need one like a hole in my head, which I might well get if I made AMEX  happy and brought it through the front door. 

- Bill 

 

WACA # 65205; life member, NRA; member, TGCA; member, TSRA; amateur preservationist

"I have seen wicked men and fools, a great many of both, and I believe they both get paid in the end, but the fools first." -- David Balfour, narrator and protagonist of the novel, Kidnapped, by Robert Louis Stevenson.

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April 22, 2025 - 1:56 pm
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Some additional thoughts on the gun in the OP, first is relative condition. For a number of reasons a rifle in this condition is common but a carbine in this condition is what I would consider a fortunate find. Even though I seem to prefer rifles I would be more likely to buy a carbine in this condition than a rifle. Also my investment experience is in a much more volatile area so I appreciate the relative predictability of Winchester values when taking into consideration our aging demographics and current market conditions.

While I appreciate Jeff’s efforts in assembling a reference collection my goal was to assemble an “experience” collection that would allow me to explore as broad a representation as my finances and gun safe capacity will allow. Initial goal was to shoot every gun I own, will need to work a bit harder on that.

 

Mike

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