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How many case colored deluxe 2nd model Winchester 1890's were produced
October 28, 2015
3:01 am
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Looking at Schwing's Winchester Slide-Action rifles, I cannot find an answer to how many deluxe 2nd model case colored 1890's were produced. Hopefully someone can clarify this for me....I have seen very few such guns. Thanks for your help.

October 28, 2015
6:15 pm
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A more careful review of Schwing's fine book reflects that 255 guns, far less than 1% of the roughly 100,000 case colored Model 1890 2nd Model made, had deluxe pistol grips. See Schwing at page 310, Chart 90-6b.

October 30, 2015
9:40 pm
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Rick,

Unless somebody undertakes a line by line review of the original production ledgers kept by Winchester and now housed at the Cody Firearms Museum there is no way to accurately answer your question.  The other option would take a few years to conduct a survey of 2nd model 1890's and see how many deluxe guns you find and then extrapolate that percentage to the total population of 2nd model rifles.  Either effort is going to require LOTS of computer time.  But it can be fun and very enlightening.

Michael

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October 31, 2015
2:59 am
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Michael,   How do you think Schwing obtained his data?

October 31, 2015
7:11 am
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and see how many deluxe guns you find and then extrapolate that percentage to the total population of 2nd model rifles. 

Michael
Isn't there a inherent problem in trying to extrapolate like that due to more "common" gun get used harder and lost to the count than deluxe models that are kept safe and collected?

Vince
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October 31, 2015
11:24 am
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rick schreiber said

Michael,   How do you think Schwing obtained his data?

Hello Rick,

I dug out my copy of the book and on page 207, at the beginning of Chapter VII, Ned does in fact reference the production ledgers.  Apparently it is these data that from which he then derived his charts in the Appendix section of the book.

Michael

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Model 1892 / Model 61 Collector, Research, Valuation

October 31, 2015
11:43 am
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Vince said

and see how many deluxe guns you find and then extrapolate that percentage to the total population of 2nd model rifles. 

Michael
Isn't there a inherent problem in trying to extrapolate like that due to more "common" gun get used harder and lost to the count than deluxe models that are kept safe and collected?

Hello Vince,

In any effort of collecting data and then drawing meaningful conclusions from it there are risks that the sampled data is flawed in some way.  Obviously in this discussion one would have to assume that the ability to sample both deluxe and non deluxe guns is the same.  Or in other words, that the same percentage of deluxe and non deluxe guns that were produced are still in existence.  In addition, is the produced population represented by what rifles you get to sample.  If only non deluxe guns are preferentially up for sale and the deluxe guns are "hidden away" in collections and not trading hands then that will influence the "extrapolated results"  

As to your point of "common" guns being lost to the count one would have to assume a very large percentage of common rifles would have to be "missing" to influence the data.  In my work on cataloging Model 1892 rifles I have not seen evidence of early guns being harder to locate than later ones.  I have cataloged just over 8000 individual rifles to date and keep statistics on how many rifle are sampled in each 10,000 SN increment from 1 to 1,000,000.  The samples rifles per 10,000 is amazingly consistent throughout.

Certainly every attempt must be made to collect, analyze, and draw the correct conclusions from any survey effort made.  In the absence of consistent ledger data for a Model a survey may the only way to draw some conclusion as to what the production population consisted of.  I am attempting to get to the point where I will have a surveyed population and the ledger data for the Model 1892's and be able to actually compare the two data sets.  Sadly it will be a few more years until that effort is completed.   If anyone has Model 1892 rifles and wants to add them into the work PLEASE contact me.  I greatly appreciate it.  

http://forums.gunbroker.com/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=606355

Michael

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