Log In
November 7, 2015
Offline
steve004 said
Good morning everyone.
But is it a good morning? I just woke up to discover some of my rifles are worth less than I thought they were
Oh well, I still like them and that’s why I bought them.
I’ve been suspecting that for past year or so. I tend to limit my collecting activities to the “affordable” sector of the market. I’ve been trying to thin the herd a bit and the results have been disappointing. I’m thinking it’s a buyer’s market and Ian may be right, values in this sector may go down even more. I think the wise words of the old collectors who encouraged me to buy the best condition guns I can afford were never truer, a lower condition gun attracts very little attention today. Only higher condition guns seem to appeal to today’s buyers.
Mike
June 12, 2013
Offline
TR said
I just finished watching online the Winchesters and Colts go thru Poulin’s auction. I had discussed several items with a couple collectors and was curious if they were successful. They had the second to the highest bids. 73s,76s, and 86s were soft and 92s and 94s were strong and so were some of the Colts especially those with history. Not big enough bargains for my friends but they did have some neat stuff for sale. I expected to see bargains because of Poulin’s location and the lack of good quality pictures but most items sold within the estimate. They are really good at furnishings good photos if you request and a good company to deal with, I think you can get a deal there.
Yes some of these prices were less than a year ago, but gun types and models go in and out of favor from time to time. The collector wants rare, if he sees to many of one model it’s no longer as desirable.. Example: About 25 years ago I went to a Vegas show and counted 120 Henry’s for sale on tables. In my mind and others they were not as desirable. I wasn’t the only one to notice, run of the mill Henry prices dropped and I’m not sure they ever fully recovered. I went there to by one and didn’t, I still don’t have one. Supply and demand sets the price. T/R
I also followed Poulan’s auction. I was successful on a few but out of 30 some in my watchlist all sold at or exceeded Poulan’s valuation. BEFORE premiums!
Maybe it’s just items I follow but, I do not see a softening of the market. Actually the opposite
January 20, 2023
Online
I think what we are seeing is the effect of a return to normalized interest rates, although the Federal Reserve Board seems to be getting low-rate fever again, having just bumped the prime rate down to .0375. “When the only tool.you have is a hammer, every problem starts looking like a nail.”
Please to recall only several years ago when the Fed did its personal best to destroy the bond market by “quantitative easing” — forcing the fixed income markets to near zero rates of return. Remember what your renewal certificates of deposit started earning– bupkis — effectively driving even the most conservative retirees into equities?
When a $20,000 CD was dribbling interest well below the inflation rate, a Winchester Grand American began to look pretty good, based on historical pricing.
A 2% 30 year mortgage let families who had no business buying an $800,000 house (maintenance costs, insurance, taxes) go nuts and strap one on.
When your government forces interest rates down well below the real World market time cost of money, prices of equities and collectibles go up because investors seek better returns even at greater risk.
At an insured, risk-free savings rate of 3.75%, I’m going to think twice about a very illiquid Grand American, much less the recent past available rates of 4.5 to 4.75 percent.
High condition Winchesters are in a dip but I wouldn’t count on the dip being permanent. Personally, I’d look at a 5-year horizon.
- Bill
WACA # 65205; life member, NRA; member, TGCA; member, TSRA; amateur preservationist
"I have seen wicked men and fools, a great many of both, and I believe they both get paid in the end, but the fools first." -- David Balfour, narrator and protagonist of the novel, Kidnapped, by Robert Louis Stevenson.
2 Guest(s)
