Tony:

A delightful gun at a bargain price. One of our members got it……………

I bought a Colt Cavalry model at the end of October, lettered as 100% authentic by John Kopec.  Expected to bring, IIRC, 18 – 22K (might have been 24k?).  With buyer’s premium and sales tax included, I wrote a check for $13,992.  I do think, from what I am seeing, the Winchester and Colt markets may be softening.  Not surprising.  When most kids are proficient on their phones and computers and have never handled a gun, or, if the have, it’s new and black plastic, what do you expect?

Rick Hill said
Tony:

A delightful gun at a bargain price. One of our members got it……………  

That being the case it’s all good! 

I’m probably wrong but it seems to me when comparing rifles of similar condition and features the 1895 looks like a bargain compared to other Winchesters. For some reason the 1895 is the Rodney Dangerfield of Winchesters. I had a fairly rare and unusual 1895 at one time and it sold for about the price of a decent “shooter”. The guy I sold it to finally found someone who appreciated it and got a much better price. I like the gun but I don’t think it gets the respect it deserves. 

Mike

The Model 1894 Deluxe take-down, lot #37 was another stellar gun which sold at a ridiculous price.  As a collector of Model 1894 Winchesters, I can tell you that the market for Winchester levers has significantly softened over the last 3 years.  This particular rifle would have sold for about $12,000 in 2012-2015.

Rick Hill said
…I can tell you that the market for Winchester levers has significantly softened over the last 3 years.  This particular rifle would have sold for about $12,000 in 2012-2015.  

Stock market had been doing well up until this quarter.  Ads placed in The Wall Street Journal by RIA as an alternative investment…

So, what is/are the reason(s) for this?  Seems like, to me, the old timers are not prevalent anymore, and not enough interest amongst younger generations

 Well, the softness with regards to lot 37 was surprising!  I can see avoiding engraved guns if starting out sue to the propensity for fakery, but, lot 37 is much more than someone starting out would buy–hence, the surprisingly low hammer price.  But, the hammer price was not much more than someone starting out might spend.  What a way to begin your collection!

Patrick said

I have been thinking this, as a younger person in this community Ive been banking on it. But it scares me to invest in to many. Ive grown up around a handful of 100 gun collections. I just don’t think for me it will pay ME in the long run because none of my age friends are interested in these guns. My dad Swearsssss to me the Colts, Winchesters, LC smiths, and Parker’s bubble will never pop. But I sure am nervous about it when most of the people I know of collecting them are normally twice my age. But I will leave you with this about a year ago I acquired an LC Ideal grade 20 GA Ejector 30% condition for 300$. Some of the older gentleman just don’t believe it happened, and the others say it shouldn’t have happened. So this tells me that for my financial security I need to not to hoard but as they become available to be more selective and keep what I like, because one day they might be worth less than what are being paid for them now.  

Right there with you, Patrick. At 58 I’m a comparative youngster and have only been collecting for relatively few years. I made a fair bit of money after the 2008 bust because I poured everything I had into the stock market in 2009. I told my financial advisor the gold prices were a bubble and he didn’t believe me. He does now. No one believed real estate would bust either.

Over the last few years I’ve invested heavily (for me) in Winchesters and it’s not lost on me that many of these acquisitions came directly or indirectly from estates. In many cases I made the purchase because the sellers didn’t know what they had. Quite honestly I didn’t always know, either. So, as I see it we have collectible guns in the marketplace being sold by folks that may not be aware of their value. OTOH if fewer and fewer collectors see the same value I see then maybe the value I see is no longer there. In my humble opinion collectibles are only worth what I can sell them for and that situation is looking more bearish all the time. I feel many of my acquisitions were good investments but if I fail to sell them for a profit I’ll be proven wrong. 

I believe it may still be a buyers’ market in Winchesters today but I’ve bought all I can and I don’t like the prospects of selling some of my investment pieces any time soon. I think this market will come back but as more of my fellow baby boomers die off I can’t be sure. I love my old Winchesters and enjoy hunting and shooting with them. I also enjoy learning about them here and in my growing reference library but someday they’ll all need to be sold and I hope most of them bring a good price. That won’t happen if we don’t get more youngsters interested in old Winchesters.

Mike

Tony:

I believe that number is correct but I’m sure that more detailed data will be published in the forthcoming book on the “Model 1895 Winchester” which is due to be published in the summer.