Chuck said

mrcvs said

Buck1967 said

mrcvs said

steve004 said
I think the rifle below serves as an example of a Model 1892 rifle that is probably all original rifle but has little appeal to most.  It doesn't have condition for collectors.  It would have appeal to shooters but I believe such individuals are on the decline.  Most shooters already own rifles to shoot.  Factory .38-40 ammo is not inexpensive either.  
The major failing here is what the seller thinks it's worth.  He is staggeringly far off in my opinion:
https://www.gunbroker.com/item/1154032421
  

The problem is the mentality that “it’s a Winchester” and it has to be worth a lot!
The problem also is that a lot of this stuff peaked about 20 years ago.  This rifle might have brought $1500 or more then.  Adjusting for inflation, one would think it should easily be worth $2200.  But it isn’t.
A general rule of thumb is you should try and double your money every 7 years.  That works ideally with the stock market, not so much with firearms.  The way the stock market has been, $1500 20 years ago is easily worth 5k.  It’s a tough pill to swallow if someone spent $1500 on this 20 years ago to find they might be lucky to get that now for it.
  

Guess that begs the question is one collecting or investing? I’m just collecting and get to buy what I love! If one is investing, I guess they need to be a lot more picky?
  

I get all that, and to expect stock market returns for most firearms is unrealistic—except for a select few which can easily beat stock market returns.  But folks hate to lose money on firearms and would like to think it’s maybe at least gained 50% or doubled over twenty years.  Never mind that they could just let this 1892 go for $1000 or $1100 and invest that money now somewhere else and turn it into $2200 in several years time or less.  Also never mind that folks buy a vehicle new and sell it in 5 or 10 years time and it brings Pennie’s on the dollar—but that’s okay.
  

There is a rule called The Rule of 72.  Look it up.  If your investment makes 10% a year it takes 7.2 years to double your money.  For the last 90 years the stock market has averaged about 10% a year.  Of course the dealers would like you to think collectables are an investment. 
  

Yes, that’s what I was alluding to, in my previous discussions.

Loss aversion is a real thing and the torment of loss is twice that of equivalent gain.

https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/loss-aversion

TXGunNut said
I suppose that sort of explains the Model 1887 shotgun and Model 87 Winder Musket. Sort of. 
 
 
Mike
  

Maybe, BUT it certainly explains why we all call Bert!

Tedk said
Comparing investing in the stock market to investing in firearms Ian?
I personally don’t invest in guns, I collect (acquire) them because I really like them and owning special guns is good for my soul. If they’re worth more when it comes time to sell that’s great
  

I think a growing number of collectors are investors. I think shrewd collectors are pursuing guns, art and other collectibles as an alternative to conventional investments. I smile when I tell my investment advisor that the only commodity I'm interested in is blue steel and walnut. I've done well in some of my investments but my gun collecting efforts are focused on guns I enjoy and my financial gains have been spotty at best. I believe there's money to be made in collectible firearms but unfortunately that has inspired some questionable practices that make it difficult for the hobbyist collector. 

Mike

mrcvs said

Buck1967 said

mrcvs said

steve004 said
I think the rifle below serves as an example of a Model 1892 rifle that is probably all original rifle but has little appeal to most.  It doesn't have condition for collectors.  It would have appeal to shooters but I believe such individuals are on the decline.  Most shooters already own rifles to shoot.  Factory .38-40 ammo is not inexpensive either.  
The major failing here is what the seller thinks it's worth.  He is staggeringly far off in my opinion:
https://www.gunbroker.com/item/1154032421
  

The problem is the mentality that “it’s a Winchester” and it has to be worth a lot!
The problem also is that a lot of this stuff peaked about 20 years ago.  This rifle might have brought $1500 or more then.  Adjusting for inflation, one would think it should easily be worth $2200.  But it isn’t.
A general rule of thumb is you should try and double your money every 7 years.  That works ideally with the stock market, not so much with firearms.  The way the stock market has been, $1500 20 years ago is easily worth 5k.  It’s a tough pill to swallow if someone spent $1500 on this 20 years ago to find they might be lucky to get that now for it.
  

Guess that begs the question is one collecting or investing? I’m just collecting and get to buy what I love! If one is investing, I guess they need to be a lot more picky?
  

I get all that, and to expect stock market returns for most firearms is unrealistic—except for a select few which can easily beat stock market returns.  But folks hate to lose money on firearms and would like to think it’s maybe at least gained 50% or doubled over twenty years.  Never mind that they could just let this 1892 go for $1000 or $1100 and invest that money now somewhere else and turn it into $2200 in several years time or less.  Also never mind that folks buy a vehicle new and sell it in 5 or 10 years time and it brings Pennie’s on the dollar—but that’s okay.
  

There is a rule called The Rule of 72.  Look it up.  If your investment makes 10% a year it takes 7.2 years to double your money.  For the last 90 years the stock market has averaged about 10% a year.  Of course the dealers would like you to think collectables are an investment. 

TR said
  Collecting guns is not an investment, it's a hobby, hobbies cost money. The good part about gun collecting as a hobby is they are easy to store, you don't have maintenance, and when your done they have some monetary value unlike golf. I am happy when I break even on a gun I sell.  The money in guns is the auction company not the collecting. T/R
  

Try telling that convincingly to most GunsInternational or Gunbroker sellers.

Buck1967 said

mrcvs said

steve004 said
I think the rifle below serves as an example of a Model 1892 rifle that is probably all original rifle but has little appeal to most.  It doesn't have condition for collectors.  It would have appeal to shooters but I believe such individuals are on the decline.  Most shooters already own rifles to shoot.  Factory .38-40 ammo is not inexpensive either.  
The major failing here is what the seller thinks it's worth.  He is staggeringly far off in my opinion:
https://www.gunbroker.com/item/1154032421
  

The problem is the mentality that “it’s a Winchester” and it has to be worth a lot!
The problem also is that a lot of this stuff peaked about 20 years ago.  This rifle might have brought $1500 or more then.  Adjusting for inflation, one would think it should easily be worth $2200.  But it isn’t.
A general rule of thumb is you should try and double your money every 7 years.  That works ideally with the stock market, not so much with firearms.  The way the stock market has been, $1500 20 years ago is easily worth 5k.  It’s a tough pill to swallow if someone spent $1500 on this 20 years ago to find they might be lucky to get that now for it.
  

Guess that begs the question is one collecting or investing? I’m just collecting and get to buy what I love! If one is investing, I guess they need to be a lot more picky?
  

I get all that, and to expect stock market returns for most firearms is unrealistic—except for a select few which can easily beat stock market returns.  But folks hate to lose money on firearms and would like to think it’s maybe at least gained 50% or doubled over twenty years.  Never mind that they could just let this 1892 go for $1000 or $1100 and invest that money now somewhere else and turn it into $2200 in several years time or less.  Also never mind that folks buy a vehicle new and sell it in 5 or 10 years time and it brings Pennie’s on the dollar—but that’s okay.

Looking forward to seeing lots of WACA members, my table will be near the TGCA SWAG table and I may actually get to spend some time there. Please drop by and say "hi".

Safe travels!

Mike

steve004 said

Zebulon said
I will only add what my old mentor told me a long time ago,  which has saved me from grief more than once. "When the elephants fight, the grass gets trampled."
  

And we've all seen a lot of trampled grass
  

Speaking of trampled grass, I watched the Richmond auction over the last 2 days! Who knew Old Winchester ads and displays could sell for more than the guns themselves? Mind blowing to see cardboard sell for 12k! 

mrcvs said

steve004 said
I think the rifle below serves as an example of a Model 1892 rifle that is probably all original rifle but has little appeal to most.  It doesn't have condition for collectors.  It would have appeal to shooters but I believe such individuals are on the decline.  Most shooters already own rifles to shoot.  Factory .38-40 ammo is not inexpensive either.  
The major failing here is what the seller thinks it's worth.  He is staggeringly far off in my opinion:
https://www.gunbroker.com/item/1154032421
  

The problem is the mentality that “it’s a Winchester” and it has to be worth a lot!
The problem also is that a lot of this stuff peaked about 20 years ago.  This rifle might have brought $1500 or more then.  Adjusting for inflation, one would think it should easily be worth $2200.  But it isn’t.
A general rule of thumb is you should try and double your money every 7 years.  That works ideally with the stock market, not so much with firearms.  The way the stock market has been, $1500 20 years ago is easily worth 5k.  It’s a tough pill to swallow if someone spent $1500 on this 20 years ago to find they might be lucky to get that now for it.
  

Guess that begs the question is one collecting or investing? I’m just collecting and get to buy what I love! If one is investing, I guess they need to be a lot more picky?

I personally don’t invest in guns, I collect (acquire) them because I really like them and owning special guns is good for my soul. If they’re worth more when it comes time to sell that’s great