I’m not familiar with your model commemorative or for that matter the details of very many commemoratives.  I’m answering here for two reasons.  First out of a personal belief a serious question deserves at least an acknowledgement even if not the availability of an answer per se.  Second, just to voice what seems to be some general principles (with exceptions) concerning commemorative Winchester 94 rifles and often many other genre of commemoratives too.

And to offer the generalization:   Winchester 94 commemoratives have never made their mark as collectibles and that has left them scant place for recognition. 

First approaching collectible status, ideally they should be ‘virtually’ unfired, in the original box and with appropriate factory paperwork; essentially “as new”.  Absent that, they fail a very essential litmus test.  Yet even ascending that hurdle, they’ve pretty well continuously failed to capture and hold the ongoing imagination of the collector crowd.  They’ve also historically failed the individuals who might wish to ‘buy and stash’ according to some ideas of appreciation.  So they are left largely as shooters and there is the final rub.  Whatever attraction may remain of their ‘aura’, is quickly lost as they descend from the hyped lofty stratospheres into the mundane.

Many are fancy and with  extracted a premium purchase price.  Many owners still aspire to bask in that premium aura.   Yet nowadays, too many knowledgeable folk will accord little if any such and ironically rather the opposite.  The commemoratives are becoming neither fish nor fowl as their interest base wanes.  Time has also foreclosed most expectations of positive appreciation as just not there. 

Perhaps I’m going out on a limb, but I’d say that the simple production models generally outscore the commemoratives in popularity and saleability.  Add the typically lesser initial vestment and that doesn’t leave much hype for commemoratives. 

Yet another problem as you set forth in your question is just how to value these guns.  I haven’t paid much attention to the Blur Book in a few years now, but i do recall they had some pretty fancy prices shown for some commemoratives.  Perhaps that’s something to strive for.  But it’s one thing to to construe values from such and the Internet.  It’s another thing to pack one of these around the gun show and market it. 

Now all above said, I do believe there are some commemorative models which maybe worthy of premiums. Those are guns which are substantially unlike any normal models of their era.  That might include the “NRA Musket” for example.  But for the vast majority of the commemoratives, they’re increasingly languishing; that as their market niche is shrinking and their track record of even keeping up with inflation isn’t particularly happy.

 So it seems to me the prognosis is of a viral combination of requiring pristine examples, shrinking markets and lack of decent appreciation; all of which is ‘evolving’ most of these guns toward three time losers in terms of past expectations. 

All here an impression and… 

My take